Sentences with phrase «term changes in surface temperature»

Dessler finds that the short - term changes in surface temperature are related to exchanges of heat to and from the ocean - which tallies well with what we know about El Niño and La Niña, and their atmospheric warming / cooling cycles.

The short - term change in surface temperature over the 2000 - 2010 period is a result of ocean heat being exchanged with the atmosphere (via ENSO).

Not exact matches

Several studies linked this to changes in sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans, but it was not clear if this was part of a long - term trend.

While natural climate variations like El Niño do affect the frequency and severity of heat waves from one year to the next, the study suggests the increases are mainly linked to long - term changes in sea surface temperatures.

Of course, while short - term changes in sea level can be predicted fairly accurately based on the motions of the moon and sun, it is a lot harder predicting the ups and downs of the average global surface temperature — there is a lot of noise, or natural variation, in the system.

In recent years, a brand of research called «climate attribution science» has sprouted from this question, examining the impact of extreme events to determine how much — often in fractional terms — is related to human - induced climate change, and how much to natural variability (whether in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, sea - surface temperatures, changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factorsIn recent years, a brand of research called «climate attribution science» has sprouted from this question, examining the impact of extreme events to determine how much — often in fractional terms — is related to human - induced climate change, and how much to natural variability (whether in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, sea - surface temperatures, changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factorsin fractional terms — is related to human - induced climate change, and how much to natural variability (whether in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, sea - surface temperatures, changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factorsin climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, sea - surface temperatures, changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factorsin incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors).

Long - term (decadal and multi-decadal) variation in total annual streamflow is largely influenced by quasi-cyclic changes in sea - surface temperatures and resulting climate conditions; the influence of climate warming on these patterns is uncertain.

For significant periods of time, the reconstructed large - scale changes in the North Pacific SLP field described here and by construction the long - term decline in Hawaiian winter rainfall are broadly consistent with long - term changes in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) based on ENSO reconstructions documented in several other studies, particularly over the last two centuries.

He then uses what information is available to quantify (in Watts per square meter) what radiative terms drive that temperature change (for the LGM this is primarily increased surface albedo from more ice / snow cover, and also changes in greenhouse gases... the former is treated as a forcing, not a feedback; also, the orbital variations which technically drive the process are rather small in the global mean).

Abstract:» The sensitivity of global climate with respect to forcing is generally described in terms of the global climate feedback — the global radiative response per degree of global annual mean surface temperature change.

In addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to albedo changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossiblIn addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to albedo changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossiblin partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossible.

So, it follows on phtysical grounds that any temperature change at the surface gets amplified aloft which means that the variability in temperature (solely the «dry» energy term) is larger aloft than at the surface.

But the intermediate water temperature (IWT 500 - 900M) seems to have no lag and a lot more volatility in terms of actual temperature change than the surface temperatures.

Abstract:» The sensitivity of global climate with respect to forcing is generally described in terms of the global climate feedback — the global radiative response per degree of global annual mean surface temperature change.

Scientifically, global warming is defined in terms of surface (or near surface temperature) change, and this extends throughout the troposphere too.

I never asserted that sensitivity in terms of equilibrium time - average surface temperature change per unit change in TOA or even tropopause - level forcing (with or without stratospheric adjustment) would be the same for each type of forcing for each climatic state and the external forcings that maintain it (or for that matter, for each of those different of forcings (TOA vs tropopause, etc.) with everything held constant.

The efficacy of a forcing is the climate sensitivity (in terms of global average surface temperature change per unit global average RF) of that forcing relative to a standard type of forcing.

Long term changes in the way sea surface temperatures are measured also tend to introduce warming.

(PS we are considering the climate sensitivity to be in terms of changes in global - time average surface temperature per unit global - time average radiative forcing, though one could also define other sensitivities for other measures of climate).

So, to conclude, if you think that future «global warming» is tied to the underlying long term trend in surface temperatures, there is no evidence from HadCRUT4 to warrant changing expectations (and no physical reasons to either).

Sea surface temperature (SST) measured from Earth Observation Satellites in considerable spatial detail and at high frequency, is increasingly required for use in the context of operational monitoring and forecasting of the ocean, for assimilation into coupled ocean - atmosphere model systems and for applications in short - term numerical weather prediction and longer term climate change detection.

Or put it this way, probably relativity little change that has occurred in terms maximum surface temperature, whereas there has been greater variations in air temperature.

This was my mental equation dF = dH / dt + lambda * dT where dF is the forcing change over a given period (1955 - 2010), dH / dt is the rate of change of ocean heat content, and dT is the surface temperature change in the same period, with lambda being the equilibrium sensitivity parameter, so the last term is the Planck response to balance the forcing in the absence of ocean storage changes.

The long - term trend of TSI is most probably caused by a global temperature change of the Sun that does not influence the UV irradiance in the same way as the surface magnetic fields.

«Departures from the expected increase in temperature with depth (the geothermal gradient) can be interpreted in terms of changes in temperature at the surface in the past, which have slowly diffused downward, warming or cooling layers meters below the surface.»

They clearly have not «proved» skill at predicting in a hindcast mode, changes in climate statistics on the regional scale, and even in terms of the global average surface temperature trend, in recent years they have overstated the positive trend.

Yesterday Piers Forster, Climate Change Professor at Leeds University, said: «The fact that global surface temperatures haven't risen in the last 15 years, combined with good knowledge of the terms changing climate, make the high estimates unlikely.»

Kosaka & Xie (2013) showed that changes in the Pacific Ocean could account for most of the short - term global surface temperature changes.

To believe that Mann is right, you have to believe that the developer of the first satellite global temperature record, and the winner of the International Meetings on Statistical Climatology achievement award, and the co-editor of The Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, and the co-editor of Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, and the co-founder of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, and a member of the UN Secretary - General's High Level Group on Sustainable Energy, and the Professor of Meteorology at the Meteorological Institute of Berlin Free University, and the Professor of Climate and Culture at King's College, London, and the Professor of the Economics of Climate Change at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, and the former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and the former director of research at the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute, and the director of the Center for Climatic Research at the University of Delaware, and three professors at the Department of Geology and Geophysics at the University of Utah, and the scientist at Columbia's Lamont - Doherty Earth Observatory who coined the term «global warming», and dozens more are all wrong, every single otemperature record, and the winner of the International Meetings on Statistical Climatology achievement award, and the co-editor of The Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, and the co-editor of Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, and the co-founder of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, and a member of the UN Secretary - General's High Level Group on Sustainable Energy, and the Professor of Meteorology at the Meteorological Institute of Berlin Free University, and the Professor of Climate and Culture at King's College, London, and the Professor of the Economics of Climate Change at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, and the former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and the former director of research at the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute, and the director of the Center for Climatic Research at the University of Delaware, and three professors at the Department of Geology and Geophysics at the University of Utah, and the scientist at Columbia's Lamont - Doherty Earth Observatory who coined the term «global warming», and dozens more are all wrong, every single oTemperature project, and a member of the UN Secretary - General's High Level Group on Sustainable Energy, and the Professor of Meteorology at the Meteorological Institute of Berlin Free University, and the Professor of Climate and Culture at King's College, London, and the Professor of the Economics of Climate Change at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, and the former president of the Royal Statistical Society, and the former director of research at the Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute, and the director of the Center for Climatic Research at the University of Delaware, and three professors at the Department of Geology and Geophysics at the University of Utah, and the scientist at Columbia's Lamont - Doherty Earth Observatory who coined the term «global warming», and dozens more are all wrong, every single one of them.

Changes in global surface temperature between 1900 and 2003 associated with the long - term global warming trend in two different datasets, GISTEMP and ERSST.

The surface temperature response, T, to a given change in atmospheric CO2 is calculated from an energy balance equation for the surface, with heat removed either by a radiative damping term or by diffusion into the deep ocean.

As you know, Isaac Held recently discussed the relative contributions of forced and unforced variations to global surface temperature change in terms of the direction of changes in ocean heat content.

On the other hand, climate change refers to the long - term changes in the Earth's climate, or a region on Earth, and includes more than just the average surface temperature.

Had Hansen used a climate model with a climate sensitivity of approximately 3.4 °C for 2xCO2 (at least in the short - term, it's likely larger in the long - term due to slow - acting feedbacks), he would have projected the ensuing rate of global surface temperature change accurately.

In order to reliably interpret surface temperature variations we need a good idea of all the causal factors, including El Niño, solar irradiance, volcanic eruptions, observational biases, changes in ocean circulation and possible long term oscillationIn order to reliably interpret surface temperature variations we need a good idea of all the causal factors, including El Niño, solar irradiance, volcanic eruptions, observational biases, changes in ocean circulation and possible long term oscillationin ocean circulation and possible long term oscillations.

If you are implying that because the ocean surface temperature does remains stable at 26.85 C there is no change in OHC, then the long term effect is to pump heat into the atmosphere.

These trends in extreme weather events are accompanied by longer - term changes as well, including surface and ocean temperature increase over recent decades, snow and ice cover decrease and sea level rise.

Since you are looking at Yosemite, read Lindquist (2007) Surface temperature patterns in complex terrain: Daily variations and long - term change in the central Sierra Nevada, California.

http://www.agci.org/docs/lean.pdf «Global (and regional) surface temperature fluctuations in the past 120 years reflect, as in the space era, a combination of solar, volcanic, ENSO, and anthropogenic influences, with relative contributions shown in Figure 6.22 The adopted solar brightness changes in this scenario are based on a solar surface flux transport model; although long - term changes are «50 % larger than the 11 - year irradiance cycle, they are significantly smaller than the original estimates based on variations in Sun - like stars and geomagnetic activity.

If we regress the annual rate of CO2 change against temperature, we are likely to see a significant short term temperature effect as warming reduces the solubility of CO2 in the surface ocean layers (with effects on terrestrial sinks as well).

When it comes to TCR / ECS - estimates, RF - only estimates are pointless as the surface temperature response might well exhibit an entirely different spatial response (with inevitable changes in the resulting ECS, ususally expressed in terms of AF or RF - efficacy) as demonstrated in Jones et al..

On top of that there are year to year fluctuation due to short term changes in humidity, cloud cover, surface temperature and change in temperature distribution which can be ignored for this discussion.

Temperature variations in near - surface permafrost (20 to 200 m depth) can be used as a sensitive indicator of the inter-annual and decade - to - century climatic variability and long - term changes in the surface energy balance (Lachenbruch and Marshall, 1986; Lachenbruch et al., 1988; Clow et al., 1991; Beltrami and Taylor, 1994; Majorowicz and Judge, 1994).

The bottom line is that the long - term statistically significant trend in surface temperature has not changed.

However, changes to climate that come with AGW or would tend to come with GW in general are more than a global average surface temperature increase, and ACC could be seen as a more all - encompassing term.

These feedbacks are the primary source of uncertainty in how much the earth will warm (side note: the question that most climate scientists who study the forcing due to CO2 try to answer is, how much will the long - term globally averaged surface temperature of the earth rise due to an rapid rise of CO2 to twice its industrial level, that is, 270 ppm to 540 ppm; it is currently about 380 last time I checked, and rising at ~ 3ppm / year, although this rate of change appears to be accelerating).

Overall, in the absence of major volcanic eruptions and, assuming no significant future long term changes in solar irradiance, it is likely (> 66 % probability) that the GMST -LCB- global mean surface temperature -RCB- anomaly for the period 2016 — 2035, relative to the reference period of 1986 — 2005 will be in the range 0.3 °C — 0.7 °C -LCB- 0.5 °F — 1.3 °F -RCB-(expert assessment, to one significant figure; medium confidence).

However, the available evidence does not indicate pronounced long - term changes in the Sun's output over the past century, during which time human - induced increases in CO2 concentrations have been the dominant influence on the long - term global surface temperature increase.

Not only that, but there is increasingly compelling evidence that the recent short - term slowdown in the surface temperature record was much less pronounced than previously estimated, if rapid Arctic warming is fully reflected, along with potential biases from the changing mix of sea surface temperature measurement sources in recent years.

Although there might be «slowdowns and accelerations in warming lasting a decade or more,» they write, the clear long - term trend is «substantial increases in global average surface temperature and important changes in regional climate.»