Sentences with phrase «term climate change projections»

The fact that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble mean accurately represents observed global OHC changes [Cheng et al., 2016] is critical for establishing the reliability of climate models for long - term climate change projections.

The IPCC chapter on long - term climate change projections that Wehner was a lead author on concluded that a warming world will cause some areas to be drier and others to see more rainfall, snow, and storms.

The IPCC chapter on long - term climate change projections that Wehner was a lead author on concluded that a warming world will cause some areas to be drier and others to see more rainfall, snow, and storms.

Not exact matches

«These profound and clearly projected changes make physical and statistical sense, but they are invisible when looking at long - term trends in average climate projections,» Gershunov said.

Such near - term benefits provide the basis for a no - regrets GHG - reduction policy, in which substantial advantages accrue even if the impact of human - induced climate change turns out to be less than current projections show.

-- 4) Improved fire models and projections directly related to Montana's forests; 5) Long - term monitoring of forest insect and pathogen response to recent climate changes and improved projections of likely future impacts; 6) Better understanding of disturbance effects on microclimates and refugia and implications for forest productivity, mortality, and adaptation.

The big takeaway from this study: While there is uncertainty in projections for changes in the climate indices reviewed here (especially El Niño and La Niña), this study serves to alert us to the fact that the climate impacts that our local coastal communities face are based in large part on changes that occur on both a large, global scale and over the long, decadal term.

Summary for Policymakers Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface Chapter 3: Observations: Ocean Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives Chapter 6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles Chapter 7: Clouds and Aerosols Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing Chapter 8 Supplement Chapter 9: Evaluation of Climate Models Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional Chapter 11: Near - term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability Chapter 12: Long - term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility Chapter 13: Sea Level Change Chapter 14: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change Chapter 14 Supplement Technical Summary

By putting the local climate into the context of the larger picture, analyzing the uncertainties, and evaluating the methods in terms of past changes, I think that local climate projections can provide useful information.

Contribution from working group I to the fifth assessment report by IPCC TS.5.4.1 Projected Near - term Changes in Climate Projections of near - term climate show small sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial sensitivity to uncertainties in aerosol emissions, especially on regional scales and for hydrological cycle varClimate Projections of near - term climate show small sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial sensitivity to uncertainties in aerosol emissions, especially on regional scales and for hydrological cycle varclimate show small sensitivity to Green House Gas scenarios compared to model spread, but substantial sensitivity to uncertainties in aerosol emissions, especially on regional scales and for hydrological cycle variables.

Much of the fear of global warming, now called climate change, stems from long - term projections that use complex climate models.

· provide projections of future climate change on two time scales, near term (out to about 2035) and long term (out to 2100 and beyond), and

Climate models provide projections of both long - term and shorter - term changes to the Earth's cClimate models provide projections of both long - term and shorter - term changes to the Earth's climateclimate.

The researches thus «urge extreme caution in attributing short - term trends (i.e. over many decades and longer) in US tropical cyclone losses to anthropogenic climate change,» stating that «anthropogenic climate change signals are unlikely to emerge in US tropical cyclone losses on timescales of less than a century under the projections examined here.»

Her talk, Changing climate hazards across timescales — combining extreme event attribution and medium term climate projections, was part -LSB-...]

12: Long - term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility.

As a result of a nomination process that began in January, 2010, Dr. Weaver became a Lead Author for Chapter 12: «Long - term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility» of the Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC.»

And Piers Forster, professor of climate change at the University of Leeds in the UK, said: «Most importantly, this paper is another nail in the coffin of the idea that the hiatus is evidence that our projections of long - term climate change need revising down.

If greater changes in solar radiation occur — as seems probable based on what is known of climate and solar activity in the past — the Sun needs to be considered in long - term climate projections.

«Scientists were quick to declare the results of the Turner et al paper, which covered 1 per cent of the Antarctic continent, did not negate a long - term warming because of man - made climate change... «Climate model projections forced with medium emission scenarios indicate the emergence of a large anthropogenic regional warming signal, comparable in magnitude to the late - 20th - century peninsula warming, during the latter part of the current century,» the Turner research concluded.climate change... «Climate model projections forced with medium emission scenarios indicate the emergence of a large anthropogenic regional warming signal, comparable in magnitude to the late - 20th - century peninsula warming, during the latter part of the current century,» the Turner research concluded.Climate model projections forced with medium emission scenarios indicate the emergence of a large anthropogenic regional warming signal, comparable in magnitude to the late - 20th - century peninsula warming, during the latter part of the current century,» the Turner research concluded.»

Reliable GHG inventories are essential, both at national and international level, for: assessing the international community's collective and individual efforts to address climate change and progress toward meeting the ultimate objective of the Convention; evaluating mitigation options; assessing the effectiveness of policies and measures; making long - term emission projections; providing the foundation for emission trading schemes.

For the CMIP5 models» ability to project future scenarios for the Arctic sea ice retreat we turn to Chapter 12: Long - term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility, section 4.6.1:

Chapter 12: Long - term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility Executive Summary • Scenario description • Projections for the 21st century • Projections beyond the 21st century • Regional climate change, variability and extremes • Forcing, response and climate sensitivity • Climate change commitment and inertia • Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change projClimate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility Executive Summary • Scenario description • Projections for the 21st century • Projections beyond the 21st century • Regional climate change, variability and extremes • Forcing, response and climate sensitivity • Climate change commitment and inertia • Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change projeChange: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility Executive Summary • Scenario description • Projections for the 21st century • Projections beyond the 21st century • Regional climate change, variability and extremes • Forcing, response and climate sensitivity • Climate change commitment and inertia • Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility Executive Summary • Scenario description • Projections for the 21st century • Projections beyond the 21st century • Regional climate change, variability and extremes • Forcing, response and climate sensitivity • Climate change commitment and inertia • Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change Projections for the 21st century • Projections beyond the 21st century • Regional climate change, variability and extremes • Forcing, response and climate sensitivity • Climate change commitment and inertia • Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change Projections beyond the 21st century • Regional climate change, variability and extremes • Forcing, response and climate sensitivity • Climate change commitment and inertia • Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change projclimate change, variability and extremes • Forcing, response and climate sensitivity • Climate change commitment and inertia • Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change projechange, variability and extremes • Forcing, response and climate sensitivity • Climate change commitment and inertia • Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change projclimate sensitivity • Climate change commitment and inertia • Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change projClimate change commitment and inertia • Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change projechange commitment and inertia • Potential for abrupt change and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change projechange and irreversibility in the climate system • Quantification of the range of climate change projclimate system • Quantification of the range of climate change projclimate change projechange projectionsprojections

This posts discusses the report of Working Group I, part of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report: The Physical Science Basis: Chapter 11: Near - term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability.

Crudial Question What Bayesian weight should Climate Etc readers assign to the postulate «The long - term effects of climate - change will be appreciably worse that IPCC projectiClimate Etc readers assign to the postulate «The long - term effects of climate - change will be appreciably worse that IPCC projecticlimate - change will be appreciably worse that IPCC projections ``?

By comparing the global warming projection for the next century to natural climate changes of the distant past, and then looking into the future far beyond the usual scientific and political horizon of the year 2100, Archer reveals the hard truths of the long - term climate forecast.

In this context, in the private sector you have skin in the game with regards to weather forecasts (and shorter term climate forecasts), whereas in academia scientists have no skin in the game in terms of the climate change projections.