Sentences with phrase «term climate prediction»

The statistics of the weather make short term climate prediction very difficult — particularly for climate models that are not run with any kind of initialization for observations — this has been said over and over.

It builds on recent improvements in models, in the reanalysis of climate data, in methods of initialization and ensemble generation, and in data treatment and analysis to propose an extended comprehensive decadal prediction investigation as a contribution to CMIP6 (Eyring et al., 2016) and to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (Kushnir et al., 2016).

The statistics of the weather make short term climate prediction very difficult — particularly for climate models that are not run with any kind of initialization for observations — this has been said over and over.

The forecast, which will be released this week, is the first such report that the Met Office has issued since it overhauled its near - term climate prediction system last year.

And their call exposes the uncertainties that still make long - term climate predictions uncertain, unsatisfactory and sometimes unconvincing.

I currently co-chair the CLIVAR working group on Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability and the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) scientific team responsible for the Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction.

Yet the UN IPCC, climate scientists and the rest of the AGW herd make long term climate predictions every day.

Weather is predictable for a week or so — initialised and nested models at different scales may be able to integrate weather into short term climate prediction.

The study, published in the online edition of Journal of Climate, shows the potential for long - term climate predictions.

The natural variations contain a large random component, depending on the specific variation — for example, a huge volcanic eruption six months from now would require new short - term climate predictions (but the long - term forecast would remain unchanged).

The post, which also looks at a 2007 paper on short - term climate prediction, is pithily titled, «And the winner is...».

When it comes to long - term climate predictions, all we can manage are educated guesses based on our knowledge of climate patterns through history.

«Finally, the presence of vigorous climate variability presents significant challenges to near - term climate prediction (25, 26), leaving open the possibility of steady or even declining global mean surface temperatures over the next several decades that could present a significant empirical obstacle to the implemen - tation of policies directed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (27).

Motizuki, T., M. Ishii, M. Kimoto, Y. Chikamoto, M. Watanabe, T. Nozawa, T. Sakamoto, H. Shiogama, T. Awaji, N. Sugiura, T. Toyoda, S. Yasunaka, H. Tatebe, and M. Mori, 2008: Hindcasting the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in relevance to a near - term climate prediction.

The results of the DCPP are a contribution to the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction (NTCP), potentially to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), and as one of the bases for the development of a WMO Commission for Basic Systems (CBS) Global Decadal Climate Outlook (GDCO) in support of applications.

Now it is possible that long - term climate prediction is a «boundary problem» as some have claimed... but I've never seen any evidence that that is the case.