Energy companies that I consider coin flips are often reliant on near -
term commodity prices for survival.
While a decline in near -
term commodity prices reduced our estimate of value due to lost interim cash flows, the stock's decline has significantly exceeded what we think is the true change in the company's underlying business value.
Undoubtedly, all of this will produce future strains in the form of inflation risk, longer -
term commodity price pressures, fiscal instability, stagnant lending activity, continued failure of smaller institutions, further loan writedowns, and other events.
Not exact matches
For now, relatively tame
commodities prices are «keeping longer
term inflation at bay,» and pressuring gold, said Rob Lutts, chief investment officer of Cabot Wealth Management.
Despite a recent OPEC agreement to cut oil production and boost
prices, it is unrealistic to expect that the
commodity will reach $ 65 a barrel in the near
term.
It pointed to the continued presence of fragile fixed - income market liquidity as a key vulnerability in the overall financial system, while it repeats the risks of a sharp increase in long -
term interest rates, stress from emerging markets like China and prolonged weakness in
commodity prices.
Such risks, uncertainties and other factors include, without limitation: (1) the effect of economic conditions in the industries and markets in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate in the U.S. and globally and any changes therein, including financial market conditions, fluctuations in
commodity prices, interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates, levels of end market demand in construction and in both the commercial and defense segments of the aerospace industry, levels of air travel, financial condition of commercial airlines, the impact of weather conditions and natural disasters and the financial condition of our customers and suppliers; (2) challenges in the development, production, delivery, support, performance and realization of the anticipated benefits of advanced technologies and new products and services; (3) the scope, nature, impact or timing of acquisition and divestiture or restructuring activity, including the pending acquisition of Rockwell Collins, including among other things integration of acquired businesses into United Technologies» existing businesses and realization of synergies and opportunities for growth and innovation; (4) future timing and levels of indebtedness, including indebtedness expected to be incurred by United Technologies in connection with the pending Rockwell Collins acquisition, and capital spending and research and development spending, including in connection with the pending Rockwell Collins acquisition; (5) future availability of credit and factors that may affect such availability, including credit market conditions and our capital structure; (6) the timing and scope of future repurchases of United Technologies» common stock, which may be suspended at any time due to various factors, including market conditions and the level of other investing activities and uses of cash, including in connection with the proposed acquisition of Rockwell; (7) delays and disruption in delivery of materials and services from suppliers; (8) company and customer - directed cost reduction efforts and restructuring costs and savings and other consequences thereof; (9) new business and investment opportunities; (10) our ability to realize the intended benefits of organizational changes; (11) the anticipated benefits of diversification and balance of operations across product lines, regions and industries; (12) the outcome of legal proceedings, investigations and other contingencies; (13) pension plan assumptions and future contributions; (14) the impact of the negotiation of collective bargaining agreements and labor disputes; (15) the effect of changes in political conditions in the U.S. and other countries in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate, including the effect of changes in U.S. trade policies or the U.K.'s pending withdrawal from the EU, on general market conditions, global trade policies and currency exchange rates in the near
term and beyond; (16) the effect of changes in tax (including U.S. tax reform enacted on December 22, 2017, which is commonly referred to as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017), environmental, regulatory (including among other things import / export) and other laws and regulations in the U.S. and other countries in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate; (17) the ability of United Technologies and Rockwell Collins to receive the required regulatory approvals (and the risk that such approvals may result in the imposition of conditions that could adversely affect the combined company or the expected benefits of the merger) and to satisfy the other conditions to the closing of the pending acquisition on a timely basis or at all; (18) the occurrence of events that may give rise to a right of one or both of United Technologies or Rockwell Collins to terminate the merger agreement, including in circumstances that might require Rockwell Collins to pay a termination fee of $ 695 million to United Technologies or $ 50 million of expense reimbursement; (19) negative effects of the announcement or the completion of the merger on the market
price of United Technologies» and / or Rockwell Collins» common stock and / or on their respective financial performance; (20) risks related to Rockwell Collins and United Technologies being restricted in their operation of their businesses while the merger agreement is in effect; (21) risks relating to the value of the United Technologies» shares to be issued in connection with the pending Rockwell acquisition, significant merger costs and / or unknown liabilities; (22) risks associated with third party contracts containing consent and / or other provisions that may be triggered by the Rockwell merger agreement; (23) risks associated with merger - related litigation or appraisal proceedings; and (24) the ability of United Technologies and Rockwell Collins, or the combined company, to retain and hire key personnel.
However, improving
commodities prices in 2016 will help restore confidence and Canada will get back on track to sustainable growth over the long
term.
The banks may be more conservative until there's more long -
term visibility of where the
commodity prices go,» said David Otte, a special adviser to Spears and Associates, a Dallas - based consultancy.
First, has been the significant decline in
terms of trade during the first half of the year due to lower
commodity prices.
Prices for important
commodities remain high and the nation's
terms of trade are at an all - time high in the current quarter.
Shorter
term, however, there is a great deal of potential for
price whipsaws in the
commodities markets (recall the scissors analogy from a few weeks ago).
«Between 2 % and 5 % for stocks, bonds and
commodities are expected long
term returns for global financial markets that have been pushed to the zero bound, a world where substantial real
price appreciation is getting close to mathematically improbable.
Sven Eenmaa, who covers the stock for Stifel, said that while savings on lighting projects from lower
commodity prices will get passed on to consumers over time, Acuity Brands should see a near -
term boost.
The
terms of trade is influenced by the exchange rate because a rise in the value of a country's currency lowers the domestic
prices for its imports but does not directly affect the
commodities it produces (i.e. its exports).
So it's better to think about changes in
commodity prices in
terms of the
terms of trade than on the exchange rate.
Most notable so far has been the boom in the resource sector, with
commodity prices and hence Australia's
terms of trade rising to historically high levels over a number of years.
The surge in
commodity prices increased the
terms of trade — the ratio of the
price of exported goods to the
price of imported goods — in both economies, but the effect in Australia was far stronger than what we saw:
The link between
commodity prices and Canada's
terms of trade is surprisingly tight (clicking on a graph opens a larger version in another window):
If there is good news for Canada in all this, it's that
commodity prices have remained elevated, which helps the country's
terms of trade.
The
terms of trade boom was driven by very large increases in the
prices of some of Australia's
commodity exports.
Compared with previous episodes of booming
commodity prices, a floating currency, a sound but flexible medium -
term framework for monetary policy and a flexible labour market mean we are doing much better this time than in the mid 1970s or early 1950s.
As shown in the chart below, signs of economic stabilization in China combined with recovering
commodity prices and a weaker U.S. dollar created short -
term tailwinds for EM assets.
We believe
commodity prices should slowly grind higher in 2018, further strengthened by investors returning their focus to fundamentals as opposed to short -
term concerns.
I expect that hard
commodity prices will fall sharply over the next two to three years, but to the extent that
prices rise in the short
term, as they have in the past three months, it is likely to reflect additional investment growth in China.
Future
commodity price levels might certainly be different, on average, in the future than they were in the past, but we should not jump to the conclusion that the long -
term boom - bust dynamics of
commodities have vanished as a result.
Still, even if it only has a short -
term impact on
prices it might muddy the water and make it a little hard to interpret the impact of copper
price changes, but the
price of other hard
commodities, including iron ore, can help clarify the role of Chinese demand.
By the early 1980s, enormous external debts, soaring interest rates, and the beginning of a long -
term decline in
commodity prices set off what was subsequently known as the LDC Debt Crisis.
However, lower
prices for oil and other
commodities since the summer have further lowered Canada's
terms of trade and are dampening business investment and exports in the resource sector.
Higher crude US: CLK8 and
commodity prices CRB, +0.42 % have been the principal driver of the short -
term jump in the 10 - year break - even rate, the bond market's assessment for inflation over the next 10 years, to 2.18 %.
However, while Canada will have to get used to a softening of
prices and demand for many of its
commodities, the longer
term prospects for closer economic relations with China look decidedly positive.
Long before Bitcoin reached the
price of gold, the two
commodities have been compared, and analysed side by side, in order to determine which would make a better long -
term investment for anyone with enough capital to risk.
Bottom line: Enbridge Inc. (ENB) is the largest energy infrastructure company in North America, with most of its cash flow supported by long -
term commercial agreements that don't depend on
commodity pricing.
Their tests employ nine asset class indexes (U.S. stocks, European stocks, Japanese stocks, U.S. real estate investment trusts (REIT), International REITs, intermediate -
term U.S. Treasuries, long -
term U.S. Treasuries and
commodities) and a spot gold
price series.
While the appreciation of the Australian dollar over the past year or so has restrained
commodity prices in Australian dollar
terms, they remain close to their average of the past decade.
Secondly, there has been a collapse of demand in the
commodity producing countries such as Russia and Brazil, due to their weakening
terms of trade (the fall in their export
prices relative to their import
prices).
In aggregate,
commodity prices were little changed in the September quarter in SDR
terms (Graph 28).
Export
prices in SDR
terms have risen sharply over the past two years, buoyed by the steep rise in global
commodity prices, while import
prices have remained broadly flat, reflecting competitive pressures in global manufacturing.
Commodity prices have changed little on average over recent months and remain at high levels; the RBA Index of Commodity Prices fell by 0.8 per cent in SDR terms over the three months to January to be 10.2 per cent higher over the
prices have changed little on average over recent months and remain at high levels; the RBA Index of
Commodity Prices fell by 0.8 per cent in SDR terms over the three months to January to be 10.2 per cent higher over the
Prices fell by 0.8 per cent in SDR
terms over the three months to January to be 10.2 per cent higher over the year.
With considerable upward momentum in
commodity prices, particularly for bulk
commodities, the
terms of trade is likely to have increased further in the first half of 2004.
Rapid growth in global steel demand has also boosted contract
prices for other bulk
commodities; coking coal contract
prices increased, on average, by 25 — 35 per cent in US dollar
terms in recent negotiations, while iron ore contract
prices have risen by close to 20 per cent.
Important near -
term influences on
prices will be the significant increases in production costs that have occurred recently, arising from higher fuel
prices, increases in a range of other
commodity prices and the effect of the lower exchange rate on
prices of imported inputs.
In SDR
terms, the Bank's index of
commodity prices increased again in the June quarter, to be about 7 per cent higher than a year earlier (Graph 27).
Thus it would seem quite possible that at some stage in the next few years, there could be some retracement of the current strength in resource
commodity prices and Australia's
terms of trade.
Commodity prices in SDR
terms remain on a firm upward trend, buoyed by the global economic recovery and the associated pick - up in demand for raw materials.
After rising strongly over the second half of 2003, the RBA Index of
Commodity Prices increased by 3.1 per cent in SDR
terms over the three months to April, to be 13 1/2 per cent above its trough in May 2003 (Table 11, Graph 49).
But we were also fortunate in Australia that the boom in
commodity prices and substantial rise in the
terms of trade through the 2000s produced a very favourable economic environment at a time when many of the major economies moved into recession.
The decline in earnings over the past year owes largely to a fall in Australian dollar
prices, as the appreciation of the Australian dollar has more than offset rising world
commodity prices evident since mid last year (see section on
commodity prices and the
terms of trade below).
While it is impossible to be precise about the magnitude or the timing of near -
term movements in
commodity prices, this assumption seems reasonable on the grounds that industrialisation and urbanisation in China still has some way to run.
The decision to not release detailed documents could signal a desire for the government to shift away from the public quarterly budget updates, which are meaningless in
terms of fiscal planning due to the province's dependence on fluctuating natural resource
commodity prices and have become little more than public relations exercises for the government over the past two decades.