CREA is forecasting a record - setting year for residential real estate in Canada, but a new report from Scotia Economics says short -
term cyclical factors are...
Short -
term cyclical factors (ENSO, solar variability, etc.), noisy annual variation, and unpredictable factors like the precise amount of sulfates we're going to emit or whether we're going to have any large volcanic eruptions make predictions over very short time periods (like a decade) next to worthless.
Not exact matches
While evidence points to the success of
factor - based investing over the long -
term, we do caution that there is
cyclical behavior associated with smart beta.
Factors are
cyclical — one will beat the market for a some time, then fall short for a period, but research shows the long -
term potential.
I have said that if a model is set up to match a certain signal (not just climate) yet matches a signal that contains an additional
cyclical factor which can change that signal significantly over the short and medium
term then you would not expect it to show great accuracy over the short to medium
term.
Other than the supposed man - made linear trend L&S apply in Case 2 starting in 1950, and the two
cyclical factors which cause zero long -
term trend, this «natural» linear trend is the only
factor included in the L&S model.
Other shorter -
term factors affecting market fundamentals include
cyclical trends, such as broad macroeconomic conditions measured by metrics that include the jobless rate, employment growth, consumer confidence and the velocity of residential home sales.