For example, recent results from the Met Office do show that there is a detectable human impact in the long -
term decline in sea ice over the past 30 years, and all the evidence points to a complete loss of summer sea ice much later this century.
What's happening in the Arctic would be impossible without a century of global warming causing a long -
term decline in sea ice levels — but it is actually a short - term weather event.
Not exact matches
But «while the Arctic maximum is not as important as the seasonal minimum, the long -
term decline is a clear indicator of climate change,» Walt Meier, a
sea ice researcher at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, said
in a statement.
IPCC climate models do not capture Arctic
sea ice drift acceleration: Consequences
in terms of projected
sea ice thinning and
decline Rampal et al., Journal of Geophysical Research, 2011
A graph of September Arctic
sea ice extent (blue diamonds) with «recovery» years highlighted
in red, versus the long -
term sea ice decline fit with a second order polynomial, also
in red.
For much of the season, the
sea ice was tracking close to long -
term norms, though it had a precipitous
decline in July, and is now almost two standard deviations away from the long -
term average.
Though
sea ice didn't melt as much
in 2009 as it did
in the previous two years, NSIDC scientists believe that the long -
term decline in summer
sea ice extent will continue.
According to research by the National Snow and
Ice Data Center (NSIDC), based at the University of Colorado at Boulder, the decline in summer Arctic sea ice «is considered a strong signal of long - term climate warming&raqu
Ice Data Center (NSIDC), based at the University of Colorado at Boulder, the
decline in summer Arctic
sea ice «is considered a strong signal of long - term climate warming&raqu
ice «is considered a strong signal of long -
term climate warming».
Stroeve et al. (2011) noted that
in 2009 - 2010, the AO was
in a state which should have resulted
in a large
sea ice extent; the fact that 2010 was a year of relatively low
sea ice extent is indicative long -
term human - caused
sea ice decline.
While the long -
term decline in Arctic
sea ice is clear, the Antarctic is much more complicated.
But they unfortunately tell us little about the external forcing behind the long
term decline in Arctic
sea ice.
NEW YORK — Arctic
sea -
ice extent shrank to an unprecedented low this summer, part of a long -
term decline in the icy white cap over the far northern ocean.
Arctic
sea ice volume, area, and extent have been
in long -
term decline for decades, and this
decline has accelerated over the past 5 years.
Even simply measuring net flux of energy into the Arctic via ocean currents from record high OHC would call into serious question the possibility that the long
term decline in Arctic
sea ice would reverse or «revert to the mean».
Animation of changes
in average September
sea ice extent from 1979 through 2016 — with noteworthy natural variability and a long -
term decline.
The area of Arctic
sea ice was nearly 30 % greater
in August than a year ago, according to recent satellite data, though projections based on longer -
term trends suggest the
sea ice will continue its
decline over time.
As
sea ice declines, it becomes thinner, with less
ice build - up over multiple years, and therefore more vulnerable to further melting.15 Models that best match historical trends project northern waters that are virtually
ice - free by late summer by the 2030s.25, 26,12 Within the general downward trend
in sea ice, there will be time periods with both rapid
ice loss and temporary recovery, 27 making it challenging to predict short -
term changes
in ice conditions.
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in 2001» (1/8/02) «This Year May be Second Warmest on Record» (12/18/01) «World Grain Harvest Falling Short by 54 Million Tons: Water Shortages Contributing to Shortfall» (11/21/01) «Rising
Sea Level Forcing Evacuation of Island Country» (11/15/01) «Worsening Water Shortages Threaten China's Food Security» (10/4/01) «Wind Power: The Missing Link
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in China» (5/2/00) Top of pa
in China» (5/2/00) Top of page
Kudos to him for responding to Goddard, especially after Goddard misrepresented the NSIDC data
in a piece described by Meier as: -... the article consists almost entirely of misleading, irrelevant, or erroneous information about Arctic
sea ice that add nothing to the understanding of the significant long -
term decline that is being observed.»
LONDON, 17 March, 2017 — Scientists have calculated that at least 30 % and perhaps one half of the
decline in Arctic summer
sea ice could be attributed to natural causes — changes of ocean and atmospheric circulation that happen according to some long -
term cycle.
They also fail to mention that despite the long -
term decline in solar forcing — and the short -
term decline of the last 50 years — Arctic
sea ice extent is plummeting and will reach conditions similar to HCO summer minima within decades (again, without help from the sun; indeed, with the sun trying to cool).
The long
term decline in Arctic
sea ice is continuing, with satellite data showing the third lowest February
ice extent,
in records which began
in 1979.
A series of extremely low September
sea ice conditions during the last decade, including the unprecedented
declines in 2007 and 2012, suggests a recent acceleration
in the long -
term Arctic
sea ice loss (e.g., Stroeve et al., 2012b).
Also there are some papers that have been ignored, such as Rampal 2011: IPCC climate models do not capture Arctic
sea ice drift acceleration: Consequences
in terms of projected
sea ice thinning and
decline
But just as one warm day
in October does not negate a cooling trend toward winter, a slight annual gain
in sea ice extent over a record low does not negate the long -
term decline.
[Response: The long
term decline in Arctic
sea ice is by far the more powerful test.