Without the innovations, I see little long -
term deep emission cuts with current limited technologies (all else equal).
Not exact matches
Buried
deep in federal regulations to restrict
emissions in the coal - fired electricity sector, officials explain that the costs of those new rules is about $ 16 billion in today's
terms.
«Instead of focusing on the exact timing of China's
emission peak, the more important question is whether China is building a foundation for
deep decarbonization over the long
term,» Song said.
And in the long
term, human
emissions would have to drop to ZERO in order to stabilize concentrations, because the
deep ocean will eventually reach equilibrium with the surface layers.
But
deep divisions persisted over how to set a long -
term global goal for cutting
emissions and what to expect from individual countries in charting their own paths toward achieving such a goal later in the century.
A more likely scenario if we do nothing is that
emissions will continue at a rapid pace as oil from sand and shale plus coal substantially replace oil and natural gas, with the consequence that we will have dug ourselves into a
deeper hole in
terms of having sufficient resources to reduce
emissions sufficiently without major disruption to our society.
The vision is also flawed in other ways: it has no short -
term emission reduction goal, it's unenforceable, and it fails to acknowledge that developed nations will need to make
deeper and swifter
emission cuts than developing nations.
To limit the long -
term risks of sea level rise and the costs of adapting to it, we must work toward
deep reductions in the global warming
emissions that are the primary cause of rising sea levels.
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Emissions Gap Report 2016 published today is yet another proof that ambitious objectives of the Paris Agreement require stronger short
term action already before 2020 and
deeper emission cuts in the period until 2030.
Basically per the work of Zeebe and others, the idea is that in those times (and today) the rates of CO2
emissions, and temperature increases, overwhelmed the short
term feedbacks (biosphere, surface ocean etc), before the long
term feedbacks (
deep ocean, weathering, etc) could cut in to process them.
Over the past decade, aerosol
emissions (which cause cooling by blocking sunlight) have risen, solar activity has been low, there has been a preponderance of La Niña events (which also cause short -
term surface cooling), and heat has accumulated in the
deep oceans.
26 Sun Stepped Art Aerosols Greenhouse gases Warming from decrease Cooling from increase CO 2 removal by plants and soil organisms CO 2
emissions from land cleaning, fires, and decay Heat and CO 2 removal Heat and CO 2
emissions Ice and snow cover Natural and human
emissions Land and soil biotoa Long -
term storage
Deep ocean Shallow ocean Troposphere Fig. 20 - 6, p. 469
25 Fig. 20 - 6, p. 469 Troposphere Cooling from increase Aerosols Warming from decrease Green - house gases CO2 removal by plants and soil organisms CO2
emissions from land clearing, fires, and decay Heat and CO2
emissions Heat and CO2 removal
Deep ocean Long -
term storage Land and soil biotoa Natural and human
emissions Shallow ocean Sun Ice and snow cover
Furthermore, it's easy to see from this equation that as population rises through the coming decades, as expected, either the combination of the GDP per Capita or Carbon Intensity of the Economy
terms must fall nearly to zero, in order to drive
deep reductions in the Carbon
Emissions side of the equation.
Now what that means is not to be pessimistic in the long
term about our ability to reduce
emissions from agriculture, just that it's going to be slower and harder to actually achieve
deep reductions in the sector over the next 50 or 100 years.
Long -
term storage Natural and human
emissions Deep ocean Fig. 20 - 6, p. 469
Friends of the Earth Europe assessed the Paris Agreement as weak and is calling on European governments to urgently commit to
deeper emissions cuts in the short and long -
terms.
The shift from binding and long
term emissions targets to voluntary Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) made inevitable the second historic shift in international climate mitigation efforts, which is the formal and explicit recognition that we do not, in fact, have all the technology we need to achieve
deep reductions in
emissions.
In 2018, strengthened INDCs would need to include (1)
deeper emission reductions by 2030, (2) longer
term targets with substantial cuts in
emissions, and (3) participation by all nations.
He also said, «The agreement and the decisions surrounding it needs to be a long
term development plan providing the policies, pathways and finance for triggering a peaking of global
emissions in 10 years» time followed by a
deep, decarbonisation of the global economy by the second half of the century — a development plan that crucially also supports the growth as well as the climate ambitions of developing countries.»
Our results show that very aggressive future
emissions reduction pathways, in which rapid and
deep mitigation begins today (not 5 - 10 years earlier as in many
emissions scenarios), would be approximately consistent with the long -
term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.
The single line in the proposal Harper apparently found inadmissible was: «We call for a long -
term global goal as well as binding commitments to
deep, absolute
emission reductions by developed countries.»
Carbon pricing is a nice way to help Australia achieve a mid-range
emissions target, such as a reduction of 5 - 25 % by 2020, but it is not going to drive the
deep, rapid changes required to meet long -
term emissions goals.