Not exact matches
Translating contributions into absolute
emission levels requires further information, as does assessing the transformative power of the INDCs and their long -
term implications for
emission trajectories.
In Stefan's words: «Once an overall long -
term goal has been defined, it is a matter of science to determine what
emissions trajectories are compatible...» By separating the decision on «long -
term» goal from the «matter of science» to turn the crank and determine
trajectories misunderstands how real goals function in nearly every area of complex and expensive policy coordination.
In the New Policies Scenario, the world is on a
trajectory that results in a level of
emissions consistent with a long -
term average temperature increase of more than 3.5 °C.
He did flag that he was using RCP8.5 projections, which are the highest
emissions trajectory of the 4 scenarios developed for AR5 (comparable to A2 scenario in IPCC AR4, which has the highest CO2
emissions in the near -
term if I understand it correctly).
He said the targets were in line with a long -
term trajectory for
emissions that scientists had defined as avoiding the worst risks, but only if all countries — including emerging economic powers among developing countries — did their part, as well.
In the near
term, federal policy could: i) level the playing field between air captured CO2 and fossil - fuel derived CO2 by providing subsidies or credits for superior carbon lifecycle
emissions that account for recovering carbon from the atmosphere; ii) provide additional research funding into air capture R&D initiatives, along with other areas of carbon removal, which have historically been unable to secure grants; and iii) ensure air capture is deployed in a manner that leads to sustainable net - negative
emissions pathways in the future, within the framework of near -
term national
emissions reductions, and securing 2 °C - avoiding
emissions trajectories.
Long -
term strategies create a framework within which the implications of short - to - medium -
term decisions that impact both greenhouse gas
emission trajectories and development pathways can be coherently planned and adjusted where necessary.
«In its final months, it's encouraging to see the Obama administration taking action to lock the country in to a long -
term, low -
emissions trajectory.»
This puts
emissions on a long -
term trajectory consistent with stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at around 650 parts per million CO2 equivalent, suggesting a long -
term temperature rise of over 3.5 [degrees Celsius].»
While the imposition of such a high price on carbon
emissions is outside the realm of short -
term political feasibility, a price of that magnitude is not required to engender a large change in
emissions trajectory.
A drop of
emissions in one financial quarter is hardly the same thing as a long -
term change in
trajectory.
Overvaluing the influence of CH4
emissions on climate could easily result in our «locking» the earth into a warmer temperature
trajectory, one that is temporarily masked by the short -
term cooling effects of the CH4 reductions, but then persists for many generations.
The Golden Rules Case puts CO2
emissions on a long -
term trajectory consistent with stabilising the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse - gas
emissions at around 650 parts per million, a
trajectory consistent with a probable temperature rise of more than 3.5 degrees Celsius (°C) in the long
term, well above the widely accepted 2 °C target.
Rather than have long -
term emissions stay around 2030 levels, however, Lomborg assumes that countries continue on a near business - as - usual
emission trajectory after 2030.