Sentences with phrase «term orbital variations»
The glacial cycle of the past million years was forced by long - term orbital variations.
http://www.realclimate.org/ Not exact matches
He then uses what information is available to quantify (in Watts per square meter) what radiative terms drive that temperature change (for the LGM this is primarily increased surface albedo from more ice / snow cover, and also changes in greenhouse gases... the former is treated as a forcing, not a feedback; also, the orbital variations which technically drive the process are rather small in the global mean).
One approach to forecasting the natural long - term climate trend is to estimate the time constants of response necessary to explain the observed phase relationships between orbital variation and climatic change, and then to use those time constants in the exponential - response model.
Second, they describe only the long - term trends, because they are linked to orbital variations with periods of 20,000 years and longer.
Recent modelling work provides strong support for the important role of variations in the Earth's orbital parameters in generating long - term climate variability.
There is no modelling of any orbital variations in incoming energy, either daily, yearly or long term Milankovitch variations, based on the assumption that a global yearly average value has a net zero change over the year which is imposed on the energy forcing at the TOA and the QFlux boundary etc..
[Response: I presumed you meant short term variations in the orbital parameters (which we don't include).
Cochelin et al used a model of intermediate complexity to show that the orbital variations over the next 100,000 years are weak enough that even a little human CO2 remaining in the atmosphere is enough to keep the earth out of an ice age («Simulation of long - term future climate changes with the green McGill paleoclimate model: The next glacial inception»).
An ~ 100kyr periodicity in fast - spreading seafloor bathymetry, and relatively low present - day eruption rates, at a time of high sea - level and decreasing orbital eccentricity suggest a longer term sensitivity to sea - level and orbital variations associated with Milankovitch cycles.