Sentences with phrase «term periods of warming»

It also helps explain why short periods of cooling can occur within longer - term periods of warming.

The second is a short - term period of warmer surface waters in the Pacific Ocean (called an El Niño).

Not exact matches

But the period of time over which the team analysed the long - term trend in warming was the past 50 years, in which this oscillation hasn't changed significantly — so almost all the warming looks to have been the result of anthropogenic climate change.

The research, published in Nature Communications, examined preserved fossil remains of coccolithophores from a period of climate warming and ocean acidification that occurred around 56 million years ago — the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)-- and provides a much - needed long - term perspective of coccolithophore response to ocean acidification.

Today, researchers use the term El Niño only for those periods when the surface water around the equator in the eastern and central Pacific warms for an extended period of time.

The North Atlantic, for example, has experienced periods of accelerated warming and cooling, superimposed on a long - term warming trend.

has experienced periods of accelerated warming and cooling, superimposed on a long - term warming trend.

Zooming in on the period after 1970, one sees a record of largely unabated warming, with temperatures increasing steadily accompanied by some short - term variability driven by El Niño and La Niña events, and also by major volcanic eruptions like Pinatubo in 1992.

This animation shows how the same temperature data (green) that is used to determine the long - term global surface air warming trend of 0.16 °C per decade (red) can be used inappropriately to «cherrypick» short time periods that show a cooling trend simply because the endpoints are carefully chosen and the trend is dominated by short - term noise in the data (blue steps).

The main point is that just as surface temperatures has experienced periods of short term cooling during long term global warming, similarly the ocean shows short term variability during a long term warming trend.

Effectively, a healthy body (that is in tune with its long - term cycles of activity) relates to the year as it does to training: there is a period of warm - up (spring), exercise (summer), cool - down (fall), and recovery (winter).

From around 1940 to 1975 there was a period of about 35 years with no long term warming trend.

I can not find any contemporary reports of climate scientists condemning him for make long term conclusions about climate change based on a warming period of just 13 years.

(In terms of warmest years rather than warmest 10 - year periods, 2014 holds the record with 2006 in second place.)

A long term study of climactic conditions would place the first half of the twentieth century into an exceptionally warm period.

This correction is naturally small (less than a tenth of a degree) and hardly changes the long - term trend of global warming — but if you look deeper into shorter periods of time, it can make a noticeable difference.

«We show that the climate over the 21st century can and likely will produce periods of a decade or two where the globally averaged surface air temperature shows no trend or even slight cooling in the presence of longer - term warming,» the paper says, adding that, «It is easy to «cherry pick» a period to reinforce a point of view.»

The authors clearly identify a long - term warming from the Last Glacial Maximum, a mid-Holocene warm episode, the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age, and the rapid warming of the twentieth centwarm episode, the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age, and the rapid warming of the twentieth centWarm Period, the Little Ice Age, and the rapid warming of the twentieth century.

Because the long - term warming trends are highly significant relative to our estimates of the magnitude of natural variability, the current decadal period of stable global mean temperature does nothing to alter a fundamental conclusion from the AR4: warming has unequivocally been observed and documented.

Let me just quote Jones and Mann: «««Medieval Warm Period» and «Little Ice Age» are therefore restrictive terms, and their continued use in a more general context is increasingly likely to hamper, rather than aid, the description of past large - scale climate changes.

Although impacts of UHIs on the absolute annual and seasonal temperature are identified, UHI contributions to the long - term trends are less than 10 % of the regional total warming during the period.

Both versions of the Cowtan and Way (2013) data have slightly higher long - term (1979 - 2012) warming rates than HADCRUT4, but they have much higher warming rates than HADCRUT4 during the hiatus period of 1997 - 2012.

First, Happer mentions statistical significance, but global surface temperature trends are rarely if ever statistically significant (at a 95 % confidence level) over periods as short as a decade, even in the presence of an underlying long - term warming trend, because of the natural variability and noise in the climate system.

«periods no warming or even slight cooling can easily be part of a longer - term pattern of global warming.»

They concluded that in a climate being warmed by man - made carbon emissions, «it is possible, and indeed likely, to have a period as long as a decade or two of «cooling» or no warming superimposed on a longer - term warming trend.

But we are in warming period than most of 20th Century, and so don't expect as much warming in terms recovering from the LIA in the 21 century as we had during the 20th Century.

Additionally, the observed surface temperature changes over the past decade are within the range of model predictions (Figure 6) and decadal periods of flat temperatures during an overall long - term warming trend are predicted by climate models (Easterling & Wehner 2009).

Considering the long - term climate trend through the Holocene (last 10,000 years)(Davis & Bohling, 2001), it is indeed true that global warming «has not taken a break», because over that time period the trend has been one of cooling, not warming.

GCMs can and do simulate decade - long periods of no warming, or even slight cooling, embedded in longer - term warming trends.

This temperature reconstruction identifies several periods of warming and cooling relative to its long - term mean (1897 - 2012).

The best evidence in support of that proposition of slow long term solar background changes is the gradual and irregular change from Roman Warm period to The Dark Ages to the Mediaeval Warm Period and thence to the Little Ice Age and finally to our recent Modern Maperiod to The Dark Ages to the Mediaeval Warm Period and thence to the Little Ice Age and finally to our recent Modern MaPeriod and thence to the Little Ice Age and finally to our recent Modern Maximum.

And in terms of our current interglacial period, there has much warmer periods during this time, and that the long trend over 8000 year period has been a slight cooling.

In terms of explaining this period of warming, the stadium wave argues: 1910 - 1940 (warming), 1940 - 1975 (cooling), 1975 - 2001 (warming), 2002 - present (cooling)-- against a background secular warming trend.

The Global Warming Prediction Project consists of a bunch of gutless wonders, frightened to use any past historical data, preferring instead to concentrate on a flat period where there is no need to apply a long term forcing trend... such as CO2.

And they analyse the double standards used when discussing the so - called «pause» as compared to an equally long period of rapid warming, which in fact deviated more from the long - term trend than the recent phase of slower warming.

From 1910 to 1940, and from 1970 et 2000 (2 periods of 30 years that are significant in terms of climate evolution), we have observed roughly the same warming of about de 0.5 °C (respectively 0.47 et 0.48 °C), whereas:

Judith with respect your point (i) for the green flag «Long term trend of increasing surface temperatures, for at least the past 150 years» is nothing more than evidence that the earth has apparently warmed over this period.

As you can see, over periods of a few decades, modeled internal variability does not cause surface temperatures to change by more than 0.3 °C, and over longer periods, such as the entire 20th Century, its transient warming and cooling influences tend to average out, and internal variability does not cause long - term temperature trends.

«We evaluate to what extent the temperature rise in the past 100 years was a trend or a natural fluctuation and analyze 2249 worldwide monthly temperature records from GISS (NASA) with the 100 - year period covering 1906 - 2005 and the two 50 - year periods from 1906 to 1955 and 1956 to 2005... The data document a strong urban heat island eff ect (UHI) and a warming with increasing station elevation... About a quarter of all the records for the 100 - year period show a fall in temperatures... that the observed temperature records are a combination of long - term correlated records with an additional trend, which is caused for instance by anthropogenic CO2, the UHI or other forcings... As a result, the probabilities that the observed temperature series are natural have values roughly between 40 % and 90 %, depending on the stations characteristics and the periods considered.»

I have a similar attitude to other Team studies purporting to show that the modern warm period is warmer than the MWP — I don't think that they've proved this using their data and methods, each study having slightly different problems, but the high degree of linkage between Team studies in terms of proxy selection means that a couple of problem proxies (e.g. bristlecones) can affect a lot of studies that are advertised as «independent».

The warmest year ever recorded was 2010, with a temperature estimated at 0.54 °C above the 14.0 °C long term average of the 1961 - 1990 base period, followed closely by 2005.

You do realize I hope that there have always been periods of warming during long term cooling trends.

This [Holocene Climatic Optimum] is a somewhat outdated term used to refer to a sub-interval of the Holocene period from 5000 - 7000 years ago during which it was once thought that the earth was warmer than today.

For example you said that if global warming had stopped 16 years ago then the long term trend since 1970 would have declined by inclusion of the period after 1997 in the trend.

«Variability in the ocean will not affect long - term climate trends but may mean we have a period of accelerated warming to look forward to,» he said.

His hypothesis is that «long - term variations in the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth are the main and principal reasons driving and defining the whole mechanism of climatic changes from the global warmings to the Little Ice Ages to the big glacial periods», not carbon dioxide.

Oscillations between cooler and warmer periods are therefore expected, and do not change the long - term trend of warming shown by the data.

Short - term effects and external factors make it possible to have «cooler» periods in regions even as the general trend of warming continues.

Li et al., 2017 (DOI: 10.1016 / j.quascirev.2017.01.009): «Additionally, increased El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strength (possibly El Ni ~ no - like phases) during drying periods, increased volcanic eruptions and the resulting aerosol load during cooling periods, as well as high volumes of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4 during the recent warming periods, may also play a role in partly affecting the climatic variability in NC, superimposing on the overall solar dominated long - term control.»

If the term warmer is with reference to the current period then the situation is a little different if we also assume that the current period is a time of exceptional forcing.