Sentences with phrase «term perturbations»

However, the gradual trend in ocean acidification will be overlaid on additional stressors to marine ecosystems (e.g. temperature, fishing and nutrients) as well as short - term perturbations that occur at local to regional scales (e.g. storms, coral bleaching, coral disease and mass urchin mortalities).

In general, volcanic eruptions cause very short term perturbations of the climate system as sulphates ejected into the stratosphere only remain there for a few years.

For most of human history, since we first started building little lean - to's, sticking some seeds in the ground and tossing a few meat scraps to the wolf pup outside the fire light, CO2 levels have been at around those PI levels, and temperature have only fluctuated by small amounts apart from short term perturbations like the Little Ice Age.

That is it is short when looking at short term perturbations and long when looking at long term perturbations.

It is true that there are some orbital cycles that operate on thousands, tens of thousands and hundred thousand year cycles but this has no bearing on short term perturbations such as a large volcanic eruption, a large release of methane clathrates or a large injection of anthropogenic CO2.

As we discover that influxes, and thus effluxes, are far higher than had been assumed, the less long term the perturbation of the system is imposed by human generated CO2.

Not exact matches

It is also a fact that if one imposes a small perturbation of some kind in a chaotic dynamic system, its effects on the details of a particular trajectory will not be predictable; but its effects on the averaged behavior of both regular and chaotic trajectories will be more predictable, evident, and broadly understandable in terms of notions of stress and response.

The contribution of bacteria through vaginal delivery followed by exclusive breastfeeding promotes specific microbial profiles that facilitate optimal nutrient metabolism and early systemic immune training.23 The potential short - and long - term effects of perturbations of the gut microbiome of infancy, as influenced by operative delivery or formula feeding, are beginning to be examined.

The essence of chaos is that any small initial perturbation grows exponentially over a term controlled by the size of the «Liapunov exponent.»

They classified first - born chimps and those born sixth or later as being at high risk for «developmental instability» — a term for various prenatal perturbations such as hormonal irregularities associated with both first pregnancies and late ones.

Essentially an AOP tells a toxicological story in terms of a logical sequence of causally - linked «key events» that occur at different levels of biological organisation, from perturbations at the molecular scale up to effects occurring in a whole organism or a population.

This term expresses the fact that the initial sphericity of the supernova shock wave is spontaneously broken, because the shock develops large - amplitude, pulsating asymmetries by the oscillatory growth of initially small, random seed perturbations.

However, a steady perturbation to the system can generate a significant change to the long - term statistics.

Question: before talking about simulating climate CHANGE, how long does the climate science community expect it to take before GCM's can reproduce the real world climate PRIOR to human induced CO2 perturbation in terms of: — «equilibrium point», i.e. without artificial flux adjustment to avoid climatic drift, — «natural variability», in terms of, for instance, the Hurst coefficient at different locations on the planet?

Not only is the climate of the Lorenz model easy to understand, it is also simple to predict how it will respond to a variety of «external forcings», in the form of either a parameter perturbation or direct forcing term in the dynamical equations.

dH / dt = F - f (T) where F is the forcing, f (T) is the feedback term, T is temperature perturbation.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:2013 Even if there are long - term large - scale ongoing anomalies in the ocean or soil, I think the weather variation would be larger than such a signal, and that is essentially a large random perturbation.

[7][8] Stephen Wolfram also notes that the Lorenz equations are highly simplified and do not contain terms that represent viscous effects; he believes that these terms would tend to damp out small perturbations.

In a system such as the climate, we can never include enough variables to describe the actual system on all relevant length scales (e.g. the butterfly effect — MICROSCOPIC perturbations grow exponentially in time to drive the system to completely different states over macroscopic time) so the best that we can often do is model it as a complex nonlinear set of ordinary differential equations with stochastic noise terms — a generalized Langevin equation or generalized Master equation, as it were — and average behaviors over what one hopes is a spanning set of butterfly - wing perturbations to assess whether or not the resulting system trajectories fill the available phase space uniformly or perhaps are restricted or constrained in some way.

Is the Earth's climate similar to most other complex, long - term stable natural systems in that it is dominated by negative feedback effects that tend to damp perturbations?

Similarly, one can use perturbation theory to analyze orbits of bodies around the Earth starting with the approximation that the Earth is a perfect sphere, and then correcting for the various bulges and such; the usefulness of the method doesn't depend on whether the Earth EVER was a perfect sphere, but only on whether the sphere is a sufficiently good approximation that the correction terms are mathematically well - behaved.

This is not in chaos terms a «benefit» (there is no such thing in chaos), but an external forcing acting as a perturbation; such perturbations destability systems, they are whacking the hornet's nest with a stick.

Whereas, on the contrary, perturbations / cyclical fluctuations occur, are the both ends of the minor axis (no specific term in usage) in April and Oct / 04.

Since such models can not account for the climate system's apparent sensitivity to small perturbations in solar energy apparently brought about by the very long term changes in the Earth's orbit about the Sun, they may also underestimate climate sensitivity to energy output fluctuations caused by solar activity, even during the eleven - year Schwabe cycle.

A comparison of significant climate perturbations for the period from 1850 through 1990 is shown in Fig. 4, in terms of the estimated energy that each has added to or subtracted from a stable climate system.

The glacial - interglacial cycles are an example of tight coupling between climate and the carbon cycle over long time scales, but there is also clear evidence of the carbon cycle responding to short - term climatic anomalies such as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (Rayner et al., 1999; Bousquet et al., 2000; C. Jones et al., 2001; Lintner, 2002; Russell and Wallace, 2004) and the climate perturbation arising from the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption (Jones and Cox, 2001a; Lucht et al., 2002; Angert et al., 2004).

We offer a formal definition, introducing the term «tipping element» to describe subsystems of the Earth system that are at least subcontinental in scale and can be switched — under certain circumstances — into a qualitatively different state by small perturbations.

The term «tipping point» commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system.

I have to be tentative because it was audio only without the slides, but as far as I can tell, it confuses short term interannual perturbations with long term trends, despite a contrary claim apparently based mainly on correlation coefficients.

One resolves in this manner the short - term components of the climate response, such as hydrological perturbations associated with changes in lapse rate.

It was recently speculated that long term changes in the solar interior due to planetary gravitational perturbations may produce gradual multi-decadal and secular irradiance changes (e.g.: Abreu et al. 2012; Charbonneau 2013; Scafetta 2012b, c; Scafetta and Willson 2013a, b, c).

of cycles is still obscure...» But, analyzing the planetary (now its time for the planet Earth) oscillation (or Libration: see Wikipedia: animated picture for the Moon), [other terms: perturbation, ligation, osculatio] we will detect further RF (radiative forcing).....

It is easy to confuse calculated TOA imbalance (or radiative forcing), caused by increasing GHGs or other perturbations, with actual TOA flux, which must remain equal to F0 in the long term.

I put «forcing» in quotes because the actual phenomena undoubtedly included internal climate processes in addition to imposed perturbations, but for these purposes, what seems most relevant is that all relevant processes were likely to invoke similar feedbacks over the long term, given that climate feedbacks are basically a response to a temperature change rather than to the cause of the change.

Few considerations of short - term supply and demand perturbations are incorporated within them.

These perturbations in the sun's output and the tidal pull won't make any difference in the long term trend relative to what CO2 is capable of.

Pete's confusion is unrelated to the concept of i.i.d., though he does seem to think that the small perturbations that occur during a coin flip, a random process, somehow serves as an apt analogy to initial conditions (and the resulting long - term changes) in the climate / weather system.