My point is that if an organisation with one of the biggest supercomputers in the world can not forecast the conditions 12 hours ahead for a 5 km grid area, what hope is there for a long
term prediction on a 1 km scale?
However, when buying or selling options, my understanding is that you are making a short
term prediction on stock price.
Not exact matches
The Fed raised short -
term interest rates three times in 2017 and based
on their
predictions at the December meeting, they expect a repeat performance in 2018.
And that dire
prediction came before many of the big banks had started incrementally increasing rates
on their fixed -
term mortgages in the wake of market reaction to U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's recent warning that $ 85 billion (U.S.) in monthly bond buying may be coming to an end this year.
The 2016 Best of the Hot List includes ideas from David Dreman
on why analysts»
predictions are like powerball tickets, insights from Peter Lynch
on what investors can learn from the Maya and a discussion of what elections mean for long -
term investors.
As it turns out, we were mostly
on the mark in our
predictions, at least in
terms of direction if not always in magnitude.
His
prediction is focused
on the short -
term, and it doesn't exclude emerging markets.
Unlike most contemporary philosophers, who restrict their examination of induction to the modern sense of the
term, in which it is construed as a method of inference which permits some
prediction of future events
on the basis of past events, Whitehead also recognizes the importance of the ancient meaning of induction.
It is significant that the earliest Gospel, Mark, uses the
term «after three days» consistently in the
prediction passages, but where these are quoted in Matthew or Luke the phrase has been changed to «
on the third day».23 The change can be explained by saying that between the writing of the first and the later Gospels the story of the empty tomb had become more widely known, and the phrase «after three days», as a dating of the resurrection event, fell out of use.
Having spent hundreds of hours over the past two years
on this study already, my
prediction is that the passages he has in mind either use the
term «saved» which in context does not refer to justification, OR, the
term «gospel» is not clearly defined in the context so it is unclear what exactly the person believed.
As part of his
prediction piece for Sky Sports, Nicholas gave us all a bit of insight in
terms of team selection with various media outlets running with his call
on the possibility of Conte rotating and resting Alvaro Morata with youngster Charly Musonda getting a run out.
Match
Predictions: Arsenal are wounder and struggling in
terms of form but they will go into the monday night game as odds
on favourites.
At present, the long -
term recovery of the Ozone Layer from the effects of CFCs is still
on track, but the presence of increasing dichloromethane will add some uncertainty to our future
predictions of ozone and climate.»
Their cunning scheme was based
on another famous theory of physics that gives quantum mechanics a run for its money in
terms of odd
predictions: Einstein's theory of relativity.
However, the 2015
predictions confirm our projections
on long -
term trends made two years ago that lung cancer death rates would overtake breast cancer in women around 2015.»
«Because the complexity of the climate makes accurate
prediction difficult, the APS urges an enhanced effort to understand the effects of human activity
on the Earth's climate, and to provide the technological options for meeting the climate challenge in the near and longer
terms.
At present, the long -
term recovery of the Ozone Layer from the effects of CFCs is still
on track, but the presence of increasing dichloromethane will lead to uncertainty in our future
predictions of ozone and climate.»
If passed into law, the federal budget for 2011 that lawmakers will vote
on this week will harm key efforts in daily weather forecasting, search - and - rescue operations, and long -
term weather
prediction, says a top U.S. government official.
Applied to unfolding, real - time events,
prediction seems too grandiose a
term for what is often a sighting
on radar or in the open fields and an exclamation of «Look, the storm has a hook!»
Sala added that some of the more dramatic changes to the grasslands did not occur until later in the study, proving how important long -
term studies are, as well as the difficulty of making long -
term predictions based
on short -
term experimentation.
People who claim we can stop worrying about global warming
on the basis of a cooler year or a cooler decade — or just
on questionable
predictions of cooling — are as naive as a child mistaking a falling tide, or a spring low tide, for a real long -
term fall in sea level.
Predictions of global cooling in the short
term are partly based
on the idea that sea surface temperatures will fall in the northern Atlantic, due to slow, irregular swings in conditions known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
In: Investigations
on the Model System of the Short -
Term Climate
Predictions [Ding, Y., et al. (eds.)-RSB-.
The second half of the podcast we cover the impact of Nate Parker's rape controversy
on his film, The Birth of a Nation, and how the GRG responded in
terms of Oscar
predictions.
The theory suggests that the disruptive models of blended learning will be the agents of change over the long
term, but we placed a caveat
on this
prediction.
Whenever a new model debuts, we look at its long -
term prospects, and our
predictions depend
on how well the vehicle covers the basics.
Prediction of how the stock will move, normally for the longer
term, is based
on the company's fundamentals and valuation.
For example, index movement provides highly accurate
prediction on short -
term direction for many individual stocks.
Thanks - I understand that making
predictions is difficult, but
on the other hand there are people who understand things like macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical risk a lot better than I do, and I suspect someone with the appropriate expertise would have a much better idea of the possible long -
term trajectories than me.
There is great interest in short -
term predictions — experts in this field continue to offer them
on a daily basis despite the mountain of research showing that they don't...
Market prices in OPMI markets seem to be set by market participants focused
on short - run outlooks and trying to pick market bottoms; technical chartist considerations;
predictions about stock market movements over the near
term; general stock market
predictions at the expense of company analysis; emphasis
on earnings per share, cash flow and dividends to the exclusion of balance sheet considerations, especially creditworthiness.
Avoid making investment decision based
on short -
term market movements»
predictions, rumors, and gossip.
For those nervous that interest rates are going to be significantly higher in five years, it might make sense to take a longer
term — but that means making a
prediction on where rates are headed in the future.
However, I don't make macroeconomic
predictions on the price of oil over the short
term.
«Longer
term, I have a
prediction that the airline world will embrace the system that Southwest and JetBlue use, that you'll be able to get that last seat
on the airplane with points,» he says.
Finally in this mini-series, both Riddles and I will look to The Future with
predictions, hopes, and thoughts
on what's to come in
terms of motion gaming and its influence
on mainstream gaming.
If anyone can point me toward
on - line data that documents near
term regional modelling
predictions and documents actual results after the fact I would appreciate it.
The
prediction of the long -
term trajectory, depends
on the climate forcing (greenhouse gases, aerosols, solar variability) and how the model responds to those forcings via feedbacks.
The natural variations contain a large random component, depending
on the specific variation — for example, a huge volcanic eruption six months from now would require new short -
term climate
predictions (but the long -
term forecast would remain unchanged).
For is it not true that the IPCC is comprised of a wide range of scientist and they all must agree
on the content of their reports, that some of said scientists are either
on the payroll of oil - dependent nations or are politically conservative, and that the IPCC
predictions have consistently underestimated the effects of climate change in
terms of temperature rise, sea level rise, ice cap diminution, etc..?
It's not that CC won't affect these things in the long
term, rather when Climate Scientists make bold
predictions on 50/50 propositions (or less) and are wrong, the public doesn't distinguish «wrong this year» from «wrong this century.»
Also, perhaps I'm misunderstanding the methodology you've described, but I find the idea of delivering short
term predictions from AR4 models a little strange, based
on previous discussions made here about the Cox and Stephenson's «sweet spot» of climate model simulations of ~ 20 - 50 years.
We apparently agree that
predictions about regional climate are not yet that reliable (again, moderators, correct me if I'm mistaken), but disagree here
on how to weigh this in
terms of where the science is.
It's important to note that a substantial short -
term influence
on the globe's average temperature, the cycle of El Niño warmth and La Niña cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean, was in the warm phase until May but a La Niña cooling is forecast later this year, according to the Climate
Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Comparing model
predictions of GHG - induced warming with recent natural temperature fluctuations also indicates the potential scale of man - made climate change.Early modelling experiments focused
on the total long -
term change resulting from a doubling of carbon dioxide (CO2) levels.
Long horizons of
prediction are inevitably associated with high uncertainty, whose quantification relies
on the long -
term stochastic properties of the processes.
In 1990 the IPCC's central business - as - usual
prediction for the medium
term was equivalent to 0.28 K per decade, so,
on any view, Karl's paper is an admission that the models have been exaggerating by well over double.
This capability would enable a model to continuously update and improve parameterization approaches
on the fly, with the potential to improve climate
predictions and short -
term weather forecasts.
The paper does however, support the notion that even if models do not produce good short
term predictions, they can be reliable
on longer timeframes.
In its 2001 report, the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change admitted that long -
term climate
prediction is not possible.