-LSB-...] the long -
term returns on bonds will certainly be lower than average based on the current yields.
Not exact matches
What that means is that you are in an environment that is going to have further trouble in
terms of investment
returns that are in areas that are based
on economic growth and areas that do relatively well like
bonds... Broadly speaking, I think that investors should be looking for lower prices
on most risk assets in these developed countries with the exception of Japan.»
Interest rate expectations are constantly changing over the short -
term but over longer periods
bond returns are more or less based
on math.
Consider this simple example with a three - instrument portfolio comprised of a S&P 500 ETF, a long -
term bond ETF and a cash - proxy ETF.1 Based
on daily
returns since 2010, the annualized volatility
on the cash proxy (a short -
term bond ETF) is effectively zero, compared to 16 % and 15 % for the stock and
bond ETFs.
Given those durations, an investor with 15 - 20 years to invest could literally plow their entire portfolio into stocks and long -
term bonds, in expectation of very high long -
term returns, with the additional comfort that their financial security did not rely
on the direction of the markets, thanks to the ability to reinvest generous coupon payments and dividends.
Based
on BlackRock's long -
term assumptions, some of the better
return - to - risk ratios are in high yield
bonds, EM dollar - denominated debt and bank loans.
What we have really seen over the past several years, in
terms of the appreciation of markets and the decline of interest rates based
on what the Fed has been doing, is a result which has eliminated the possibility of investors in
bonds and stocks to earn an adequate
return relative to their expected liabilities.
And even if the indicator was valid (counterfactually), the article asks readers to accept as given that earnings are properly reported here, that they will grow by nearly 50 % over the coming year, and that investors are willing to key the long -
term return they require from stocks to the yield
on 10 - year
bonds, which has been abnormally depressed in a flight to safety.
For instance, a portfolio with an allocation of 49 % domestic stocks, 21 % international stocks, 25 %
bonds, and 5 % short -
term investments would have generated average annual
returns of almost 9 % over the same period, albeit with a narrower range of extremes
on the high and low end.
The
bond guru stumbled in 2011
on some ill - timed Treasury bets although Total
Return Fund has a glittering long -
term track record.
Over the long
term the nominal
return on a duration - managed
bond portfolio (or
bond index — the duration
on those doesn't change very much) converges
on the starting yield.
The example, which illustrates a long -
term average
return on a balanced investment of stocks and
bonds, assumes a single, after - tax investment of $ 75,000 with a gross annual
return of 6 %, taxed at 28 % a year for taxable account assets and upon withdrawal for tax - deferred annuity assets.
There could be more pain in other sectors of the
bond market based
on credit quality and maturity, but the point is that
bonds were never meant to be long -
term return enhancers for your portfolio.
For investors seeking long -
term total
returns, primarily in the U.S. Treasury market, with added emphasis
on the protection of purchasing power through inflation hedges such as precious metals shares and other
bond - market alternatives.
Thus fluctuations in interest rates will cause the total
return on bonds to fluctuate, with long -
term bonds fluctuating more than short -
term bonds.
Even without suggesting that money will move «out of cash and into stocks,» one might argue that relative valuations are too wide, and that stocks should be priced to achieve lower long -
term returns, given the poor
returns available
on bonds.
Could you get away with all or the bulk of your
bond quota in IGLT without harming long
term returns due to the overall safe haven effect
on your portfolio in times of extreme stress?
When investors begin to focus
on the potential for Fed rate hikes, short -
term bonds will almost certainly begin to experience lower
returns and — depending
on the type of fund — greater volatility than they have in years past.
(These are the accounts that we contribute the most to — 17,500 each — and we want to maximize our future
returns, willing to accept short -
term volatility for long -
term growth etc.) Although I have read
on bogleheads that having at least a small
bond allocation can actually improve
returns w / rebalancing, hmm....
Just to follow up my comments
on bonds above, Rick Ferri has posted a useful piece showing how the «obvious» move to stay away from anything other than short -
term bonds has hit a US investor's
returns in the past few years:
Former Fed Governor Stein highlighted that Federal Reserve's monetary policy transmission mechanism works through the «recruitment channel,» in such way that investors are «enlisted» to achieve central bank objectives by taking higher credit risks, or to rebalance portfolio by buying longer -
term bonds (thus taking
on higher duration risk) to seek higher yield when faced with diminished
returns from safe assets.
The beauty of being a long -
term investor though is that you will still make the same
return on the investment if you hold it until the
bond matures.
Consider adding fixed income to
return to the right mix of stocks and
bonds based
on your comfort with risk and long -
term financial goals.
The fundamentals are changing, however, and the next few decades are likely be quite different in
terms of
returns on both equities and
bonds.
Taxation Of Distributions Besides taxes
on capital gains incurred from selling shares of ETFs, investors are also subject to pay taxes
on periodic distributions, which can be dividends paid out from the underlying stock holdings, interest from
bond holdings,
return of capital (ROC) or capital gains — which come in two forms: long -
term gains and short -
term gains.
Of course since they also get that additional $ 100
return on their purchase when then
bond term ends, so their total
return is even better than the 5.6 %.
The reasonable long -
term predictability of nominal
bond returns based
on their starting yields.
Capital markets are very sensitive to inflation because of its impact
on real long -
term returns, so it is not surprising that
bond yields have fallen as inflation has come down.
They didn't know that inflation was going to have the detrimental long -
term effects
on real
bond returns that it had.
Neither light reading nor cheap (it's hard to find online for less than about $ 75), this book is the most thoughtful and objective analysis of the long -
term returns on stocks,
bonds, cash and inflation available anywhere, purged of the pom - pom waving and statistical biases that contaminate other books
on the subject.
Or if you need a bit of
return on those dividends without the volatility of the stock market, you could drop those dollars into a short -
term bond fund.
In
bond funds, there are several categories right from Liquid Funds (as a surrogate to money lying in your savings account) to Short Term Bond Funds (which try to balance interest rate risk and yield) to Long term / Dynamic Bond Funds (which essentially try to deliver returns by taking on interest rate ri
bond funds, there are several categories right from Liquid Funds (as a surrogate to money lying in your savings account) to Short
Term Bond Funds (which try to balance interest rate risk and yield) to Long term / Dynamic Bond Funds (which essentially try to deliver returns by taking on interest rate ri
Term Bond Funds (which try to balance interest rate risk and yield) to Long term / Dynamic Bond Funds (which essentially try to deliver returns by taking on interest rate ri
Bond Funds (which try to balance interest rate risk and yield) to Long
term / Dynamic Bond Funds (which essentially try to deliver returns by taking on interest rate ri
term / Dynamic
Bond Funds (which essentially try to deliver returns by taking on interest rate ri
Bond Funds (which essentially try to deliver
returns by taking
on interest rate risk).
The Fund focuses
on the long end of the curve, seeking to capitalize
on the yield and
return characteristics of longer -
term municipal
bonds.
In this table you will find short
term historical
return data, including total YTD
return and 1 - year
returns on all Bank Loan
Bond Funds.
In this table you will find short
term historical
return data, including total YTD
return and 1 - year
returns on all Muni National
Bond Funds.
Titled «A Reality Check for Pension Funds and Retirement Savings,» it predicts that long -
term bonds will generate long -
term returns of 2.5 % (0.5 % «real»
return net of inflation) and of 6.9 % (4.8 % real)
on stocks.
As a non-institutional investor who doesn't care as much about the «mark to model»
on any
bonds I would hold, I would view double - digit Treasuries as free money, especially in light of long -
term returns on stocks barely cracking the DD with divvies included...
For example, if short -
term rates were to rise 1 %, you would lose about 2 %
on a short -
term bond fund (assuming a 2 year duration), and your total
return over 1 year would be about 0 % (2 % interest minus 2 % decrease in value).
On the other hand, adding some stocks and
bonds to a portfolio of stable, short -
term cash investments could boost the probability of achieving higher long -
term returns.
Of course, your actual
return depends
on the plan you have, the fees you pay and the long -
term performance of the stock and
bond markets.
A:
On a long -
term basis, commodity
returns are about the same as long -
term bonds... with a lot more risk.
For example, the annual
return on long -
term US Treasury
bonds is likely to be very different from the
return reported for high - yield corporate
bonds or general obligation (GO) municipal
bonds.
Short -
term bonds, however, offer a simple way to save money while securing a small
return on the investment.
And while rising rates are bad for
bonds and
bond funds in the short -
term, climbing yields can actually boost
returns on a diversified portfolio of
bonds over the long haul, as interest income and proceeds from maturing
bonds are re-invested at higher rates.
The example, which illustrates a long -
term average
return on a balanced investment of stocks and
bonds, assumes a single, after - tax investment of $ 75,000 with a gross annual
return of 6 %, taxed at 28 % a year for taxable account assets and upon withdrawal for tax - deferred annuity assets.
PIMCO
bond maven Bill Gross, who oversees the PIMCO Total Return Exchange - Traded Fund (NYSEMKT: BOND) and other funds totaling about $ 2 trillion under management, told CNBC yesterday that he would take the other side of Fidelity's trade, gladly accepting yields on short - term securities that are 10 to 20 times what they were a few days ago in exchange for some mild liquidity r
bond maven Bill Gross, who oversees the PIMCO Total
Return Exchange - Traded Fund (NYSEMKT:
BOND) and other funds totaling about $ 2 trillion under management, told CNBC yesterday that he would take the other side of Fidelity's trade, gladly accepting yields on short - term securities that are 10 to 20 times what they were a few days ago in exchange for some mild liquidity r
BOND) and other funds totaling about $ 2 trillion under management, told CNBC yesterday that he would take the other side of Fidelity's trade, gladly accepting yields
on short -
term securities that are 10 to 20 times what they were a few days ago in exchange for some mild liquidity risk.
Still, I avoid it because the excess
return on long -
term bonds is very small.
There must be a way to see the Big Picture and lighten up
on areas that are over-valued, but still enjoy an average
return at least approaching that of the market as a whole... I'd love to hear some simple strategies that require a little thought, and don't just focus
on keeping a lot of money in cash and short
term bonds.
My point is that for a long
term investor,
bonds are nothing more than a drag
on returns.
A short -
term municipal
bond strategy has provided a similar risk and
return experience to the ladder options, and might be appropriate if the investor does not want to manage the maintenance of a ladder, or does not need the option of withdrawing proceeds from the investment
on a regular basis.