Short -
term trends like one bad hurricane season are far too noisy to make any credible cause - effect link, even if a link may in fact exist.
If you pick enough short
term trends like this, you can convince yourself that no warming ever happened!
Brown et al treat warming and cooling decades, i.e. relatively short - term fluctuations, not long -
term trends like CO2 - induced global warming.
It is just another illustration that short -
term trends like this are not robust, due to natural variability and (as shown here) due to data uncertainty.
One can clearly see the extreme year 1998, which (thanks to the record - El Niño) stands out above the long -
term trend like no other year.
Carrick, I am not sure which post you replied to, but how would you test the significance of a deviation from a long -
term trend like this?
Not exact matches
Capitalizing on this
trend, brands
like NYX Cosmetics have jetted to the forefront by building a community around artistic expression, with Tribe Dynamics ranking NYX fourth in
terms of earned media value and social media growth in January 2017.
They have large businesses, and many people still
like their services, but the long -
term trend is inescapable.
The company claims a 30 - day snapshot makes little sense, as it makes it difficult to tease out real sales
trends from short -
term fluctuations, caused by things
like discount programs.
House prices may at times go into reverse, but they historically have enjoyed a long -
term upward
trend,
like stocks.
That
trend following behavior exacerbates the reflexive process and leads to higher highs and lower lows, resulting in lower overall returns for the average investor and institutions as a group, but also leads to truly outstanding returns for investors
like Soros who understand Reflexivity and have the discipline to take the other side of these short -
term investors» movements.
I would
like to say a little more about it today and will divide the subject into two aspects: the shorter -
term cyclical fluctuations in household credit growth, and the fact that various debt ratios have
trended upwards over time.
However, those against homeownership just don't want to acknowledge the truth that
like with stocks, the long
term trend for real estate is also up and to the right.
Exclusive research on long -
term trends and in - the - moment ideas,
like artificial intelligence and biotech breakthroughs
As always, that means doing the hard work of imagining what the world will look
like in five years and aligning ourselves with those long -
term consumer
trends.»
But in
terms of how much people care, it doesn't seem
like trends in general reflect a lot of time spent making purchasing choices based on independence (macro
trends for Elysian in the NW for instance don't seem to indicate a downside in
terms of sales growth to becoming ABI owned).»
With all the high frequency data available these days,
like weekly economic data, and market pricing by the second, it can sometimes be good to tune the noise levels down and take a look at some longer
term trends to help keep things in perspective.
However, they are considered to be particularly useful in upward (or downward)
trending markets —
like the long -
term uptrend we have been experiencing since 2009.
Like the 200 EMA, the 50 EMA shows short -
term bullish and bearish
trends relative to the EMA line:
Trends above are showing bullish traits, and
trends below are showing bearish traits.
«On the first day, it was mainly just breaking news,
trending hashtags, things
like #shooter and #parkland, and just sort of innocuous
terms were being thrown around,» Schafer said.
Should those
trends persist, in the long
term America's religious culture may become more
like Denmark's than
like that of the Bible Belt of Billy Graham's youth.
But in the last decades American Christians,
like Christians across the West, have faced a rising
trend of what Pope Francis has
termed «polite persecution.»
«I think that pilgrimage is
like [what we do in] youth ministry,» he says, referencing contemporary Christianity's short -
term mission trip
trend.
Cold brew today is one of the top
trends in beverage, the
term is becoming increasingly familiar to consumers, other categories
like tea are beginning to experiment with the process, and the innovation pipeline for the coffee market as a whole seems to be primarily geared towards building on the concept.
The two - year rankings are what I use in projections, but I wanted to share all of it because I know some people
like thinking in
terms of five - year
trends.
As a result, sportsbooks see exponentially more action on these games and, since the public generally
likes betting on favorites, this action is often one - sided, in
terms of NFL spread betting
trends.
The fall shows are definitely my favorite, because I love seeing what next spring will look
like in
terms of
trends, silhouettes, and color schemes.
Treating choices
like full -
term (or «extended») breastfeeding, babywearing, co-sleeping, unschooling, free - range parenting, and so on
like new or «alternative»
trends ignores that none of these things are new, and for many people, they aren't really even a choice.
Mr Williamson warned that although the likelihood of a double - dip recession in
terms of economic growth was low,
trends that the labour market is retreating to recession -
like characteristics was «already becoming evident».
Given the obvious concerns for human ecological health — in
terms of climate change, heavy metal toxification, indoor air quality, air pollution, plastics in the oceans, and things
like that — there will be a large - scale
trend to buildings that start to act
like organisms.
These are the kinds of
trends that we can only identify with long -
term records
like the one used in our research.»
The genetic data show only very long -
term trends, and thus don't reveal what the birds» last decades were
like.
However, if one downweights these two events (either by eliminating or, as in Cane et al» 97, using a «robust»
trend), then an argument can be made for a long -
term pattern which is in some respects more «La Nina» -
like, i.e. little warming in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, and far more warming in the western equatorial Pacific and Indian oceans, associated with a strengthening, not weakening, of the negative equatorial Pacific zonal SST gradient.
When considering long
term climate
trends, you need to filter out short
term weather anomalies
like El Nino or volcanic eruptions - an easy way is to plot a 5 year average.
«The challenge is really first understanding what the natural variability looks
like in this data - poor region, and then making measurements long enough that we can tease out the long -
term ocean acidification
trend, which is this gradual increase through time,» he said «It's really hard to see with just one or two years of data.»
Scientists at the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory are applying atmospheric science research capabilities to improve our understanding of long -
term weather
trends and better predict extreme weather events
like these — and it all starts with studying clouds.
Unfortunately,
like many other
trends in bodybuilding, full body training has become somewhat neglected by the lifting world, even though it produces excellent results in
terms of building a strength base upon which one can build more muscle in the future.
Weight loss progress is rarely linear, and things can fluctuate enough in the short
term to hide the long run
trend — it's
like the stock market.
They're great because they're stylish and work well with modern
trends like skinny jeans and slim - fit blazers, but they don't do much in
terms of actually holding trousers up.
When looking to make a long -
term purchase, avoid
trends like oversized faces, visible logos, and sparkle.
According to
trends revealed by Google, search
terms like «online dating» and «free dating» are getting the most hits from fraudsters in African countries.
Rising
trends of search
terms like «help me with my essay» signify popular demand for the online services that specialize in writing help — from a simple second opinion to proofreading and editing.
Penguin's submission added that «while, in addition to purely social matters, general book industry issues and
trends were discussed at high - levels of generality, including the growth of ebooks and Amazon's role therein, Makinson did so pursuant to antitrust legal advice and avoided competitively sensitive topics
like terms of trade, prices, or confidential competitive matters».
Importantly, even the bankruptcies of the Great Depression did not materially disrupt the long -
term earnings growth
trend for a diversified portfolio of U.S. stocks (especially a periodically updated one
like the S&P 500).
As longer -
term investors we don't look for short -
term profits
like traders who often trade against the
trend to make a few dollars.
They are very significant in observing the long -
term trends and observing chart patterns
like heads, shoulders and triangles, without much surrounding noise.
It might be a missed quarter, a regulatory problem, a
trend in the industry that is producing a short -
term headwind or a short -
term macro factor
like a strong dollar.
Using tools
like longer -
term moving averages and
trend lines drawn with major swing pivots to highlight the current state of the market.
They are running a marathon: Successful poker and blackjack,
like long -
term trend following is a marathon.
As longer -
term investors, we don't look for short -
term profits (daily to weekly)
like traders who often trade against the intraday
trend to make a few dollars.