Tom — You raise valid points about the challenge of model development for predicting long
term trends such as temperature responses to a continued rise in atmospheric CO2.
Some traders buy stock with the intent of holding for years while others will buy for shorter
term trends such as weeks to months.
When weather - related damages are adjusted («normalized») to account for changes in population, per capita income, and the consumer price index, there is no long -
term trend such as might indicate an increase in the frequency or severity of extreme weather related to global climate change.
As noted previously on this blog, when hurricane damages are adjusted («normalized») to account for changes in population, per capita income, and the consumer price index, there is no long -
term trend such as might indicate an increase in hurricane frequency or power related to global climate change.
Not exact matches
At this point, we've all doubtless gotten sick of the
term «experiential» to explain why people do things, but we shouldn't just roll our eyes at
such an important
trend,» the «Mad Money» host said.
But with so many interests — and political careers — at stake, the risk that talks could fall through at any point remains a serious risk,» he warned, adding that
such a scenario would have an impact of a 1.5 percent contraction on the U.K.'s long -
term growth
trend.
While some long
term trends in the Australian energy market continue —
such as strong growth in Queensland and Western Australia — the sector is undergoing rapid change.
The end result, investors say, is that the national team is unwittingly encouraging short -
term trading patterns that amplify the detachment of stock markets, which have become less responsive to fundamental drivers
such as earnings
trends, domestic economic data and shifts in global markets.
We have long argued that it is vital for investors to filter out the noise that creates short -
term flash points and instead stay focused on the secular themes that are driving valuations over the longer run (
such as demographic
trends and technological innovation).
By combining factors
such as budget, market growth, current pipeline, and past
trends, companies can make projections about short -
term and long -
term sales figures.
Nationally, real spending on new multifamily construction showed a long -
term upward
trend prior to the collapse of the housing bubble, and it has rebounded strongly in the aftermath of the collapse,
such that it is currently near its 2006 all - time high.
In an effort to focus on our long -
term guidance, we will not be discussing near -
term results
such as the month - to - date sales
trends.
Such trends are generally not sustainable over the long
term.
Higher oil prices would reinforce current market
trends based on reflation: rising long -
term bond yields and a shift out of perceived safer assets — bond proxies and low - volatility stocks — and into cyclical assets
such as EM.
Secondly, be on the lookout for opportunities amidst any confusion created by Trump,
such as seeking buying opportunities where price has suffered, but which look likely to revert to
trend in the medium
term.
In addition, commodities have struggled under the weight of a stronger dollar, a
trend likely to continue given long -
term global
trends such as divergent monetary policies.
If it does, a sudden breakdown below key support levels,
such as convergence of the
trend channels and 50 - day MAs, could lead to a rapid decline in the near -
term.
Even the strongest of secular
trends,
such as falling long
term interest rates, may have painful reversals along the way.
A longer moving average (
such as a 200 - day EMA) can serve as a valuable smoothing device when you are trying to assess long -
term trends.
Such long -
term trends as the development of technology, the increase of living standards, the growth of leisure, the elaboration of the mass media for entertainment and communication - all these create new and perplexing problems.
There will be a leveling off or diminishing of some aspects of the basic, long -
term multifold
trend,
such as urbanization.
At this macro-scale thirteen
such items are compiled constituting what they call «the basic, long -
term, multifold
trend.»
Some of the online conversation around Sandy have treated it as
such an act, with the
term «prayer»
trending on Facebook on Monday, as the nation awaited the storm's landfall.
Linking
such changes to arguments about world order provides a way of thinking about their place in longer -
term historical patterns and their relation to
trends in the wider system of societies.
That approach helps it avoid investing capital and time into short -
term fads
such as the low - carb
trend that was hot a few years ago but has since petered out.
In
terms of global consumption
trends, the IWSR and Vinexpo predicts consumption will hit 3.16 bn cases by 2021, with «national spirits»
such as baijiu, soju and Indian whisky retaining significant market share.
«This database lays a path toward greater understanding of the problem areas and
trends of domestic violence across Suffolk County and can further serve as a catalyst to create solutions that will substantially reduce
such violence over the long -
term.»
«There's some overarching
trends such as ethnic politics and the need to be able to raise enough money to compete citywide but ultimately the story of Bill de Blasio's second
term hasn't been written,» Stavisky added.
But studies
such as this that show long -
term trends in CO2 levels are an important part of solving the puzzle, Hasler says.
A growing
trend among college drinkers is called «drunkorexia,» a non-medical
term that refers to a combination of alcohol with diet - related behaviors
such as food restriction, excessive exercising, or bingeing and purging.
While 2014 temperatures continue the planet's long -
term warming
trend, scientists still expect to see year - to - year fluctuations in average global temperature caused by phenomena
such as El Niño or La Niña.
There have certainly been some large El Nino events over the past couple decades, and this leverages any linear
trend estimates of the long -
term behavior (
such as those shown in the recent Vecchi et al paper, which we'll be talking about more in a follow - up post to this).
Although similar numbers of total splenic gp33 - LCMV — specific T cells were observed between genotypes (Fig. 5B), the distribution of gp33 - LCMV — specific CD8 + T cell effector and memory subsets were altered,
such that there was a significantly lower percentage of short -
term effector T cells and reciprocal changes in memory precursor cells among gp33 - specifc CD8 + T cells in WT relative to DKO mice (Fig. 5C), with a
trend in changes in absolute cell numbers, consistent with temporal data from peripheral blood (Fig. 5A).
As
such, teleconnections may mask the
trend of a longer -
term climate signal or enhance the signal making it appear stronger than it is.
Climate variations are made up of both long -
term trends,
such as in response to greenhouse gases and aerosols, and shorter
term fluctuations due to natural variability,
such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation.
This is because the filtering removes low frequency elements
such as the long
term warming
trend.
Such a systematic and long -
term monitoring programme of stranded animals facilitates the investigation of spatio - temporal
trends in disease, causes of mortality and exposure to environmental pollutants largely inaccessible by other methods.
While
such a long -
term, human - collected dataset is remarkable in and of itself, the climate
trends the data reveals are equally notable.
Signs of
such deterioration abound, as conservatives push to loosen the grip of governments and unions so as to maximize the freedom of families and schools to chart their own course, and as liberals redefine education reform into a «social justice» crusade, construe today's problems in race and gender
terms, and press government to do more to advance and protect selected subgroups — a
trend that's been welcomed and in fact quickened by the Obama administration's eagerness to nationalize these endeavors and institute federal regulations that further them.
WASHINGTON — Roman Catholic educational leaders meeting here to discuss the future of Catholic schools have endorsed
such concepts as increasing faculty pay and benefits and opening new schools, despite long -
term trends in which thousands of parochial schools have closed.
It will be interesting to watch this
trend and see how it affects the university presses in
terms of being able to continue to offer the same content in
such an affordable model.
We're not sure why Apple's share has taken
such a huge dip and it is unclear if this is a new
trend in which we will see Microsoft eventually lead the way in
terms of tablet sales.
Momentum strategies involve investing in stocks that have displayed a recent short
term positive
trend in a certain quality
such as price, earnings, profitability, etc..
Despite the very long -
term trend showing that individual investors are moving assets to passively managed investment vehicles (
such as index funds), the vast majority of individual assets are still in the hands of active fund managers.
Usually, a longer
term means a higher interest rate, but this also depends on other factors
such as cash flow
trends, profitability and personal credit score.
It wouldn't be shocking if the stock retraced a few of its steps after staging
such a win streak and bumping into resistance, but the recent upswing wouldn't be negated from a technical standpoint until the AEP traded below the early March low (or at least the longer -
term trend line).
Overall, my impression is that the near -
term dynamics of the market are likely to be dominated by this sort of speculative
trend following activity - primarily because it will probably still take another 4 - 8 weeks until sensitive coincident economic measures (
such as ISM figures and new claims for unemployment) begin to predictably reflect the deterioration we've seen in various composites of leading indicators.
Profit - sharing providers have greater flexibility when it comes to deciding the
terms of early withdrawal than do administrators of other plans,
such as 401 (k) s. However, the
trend has been to permit no early withdrawals.
One can also implement a long
term trend following strategy using long
term moving averages
such as 70,150,200 for stocks or any other trade able idea.
Of course, there were short
term bear markets
such as in 1987, however the easy money was made on the long side as the primary
trend was up.