CAPE, Shiller P / E, long -
term valuation metrics, value investing, market efficiency, abnormal returns
In late stage bull market cycles, the inevitable bashing of long
term valuation metrics comes to full fruition.
The Index next separates the top 25 % of these countries as measured by Cambria's proprietary long
term valuation metrics.
-LSB-...] The Index next separates the top 25 % of these countries as measured by Cambria's proprietary long
term valuation metrics.
That's based on an underlying $ 10 per proved in - the - ground (/ water) boe long -
term valuation metric, which I'd be slow to change.
Not exact matches
«What I see a lot of the time is that founders are focused on
valuation and vanity
metrics rather than thinking about what's going to be best for the business long -
term,» he said.
For example you could say, «Our competitor with similar
metrics recently got financed at a $ 20 million pre-money
valuation, here is why I think we're better...» Setting
terms to the investor by saying something like, «I won't take less than this
valuation» is the surest way to turn off a potential investor.
Third, academic research has found that
valuation metrics, such as the earnings yield (E / P) or the CAPE 10 earnings yield, and
valuation spreads have predictive value in
terms of future returns.
In the presence of a broad range of reliable
valuation metrics uniformly at more than twice their historical norms, coupled with the most severe overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising - yield syndrome we define, it is instructive how shorter -
term action has evolved near those points.
The company's cash flow is a better
metric to use for profit and
valuation, and investors are paying much less for cash flow now (even though it's very likely to rise considerably in the near
term) than they've been paying, on average, for the last three years.
Although
valuation metrics are key longer
term guideposts, liquidity and trend importantly influence short
term investor thinking and behavior.
One of the great anomalies of investing: The historical long -
term outperformance of certain smart beta or factor - based strategies relative to the broader equity market (think choosing stocks based on their
valuations, momentum, low volatility or quality
metrics such as profitability).
The
metrics that track some of these trends - the level of profit margins in relation to sales growth, sector
valuation, and a downward drifting earnings surprise rate - are currently highlighting potential intermediate -
term risks on the earnings front.
We do not see equity
valuation metrics falling back to historical means in an environment where earnings are staging a sustained recovery and long -
term rates are low.
The company's cash flow is a better
metric to use for profit and
valuation, and investors are paying much less for cash flow now (even though it's very likely to rise considerably in the near
term) than they've been paying, on average, for the last three years.
Brightman, Masturzo, and Beck (2015) offer a long -
term comparison of
valuation metrics for the US market.
Additionally, a P / E ratio of 15 represents a
valuation metric of a current earnings yield that also closely correlates with the long -
term rate of return (6 % to 8 %) that stocks have delivered when
valuations were aligned with intrinsic value (P / E 15).
A second shortcoming of relative
valuation metrics is the benchmark that is used, typically the
metric's long -
term historical average.
In
terms of
valuation, the more
metrics you employ the better (just average them out).
If a share's genuinely «bad» — say, in
terms of excessive debt, poor margins, low return on equity, erratic P&L record, etc. — then logically, those sub-par financial
metrics will automatically get incorporated into your stock
valuation anyway (in suitably quantitative fashion).
I am a big fan of Chuck Carnevale's service, where you can get a long -
term earnings history as well as many important
metrics for stock
valuation.
Unless the shares are cancelled they still count in
terms of calculating any type of
valuation metric — so you spend cash but actually buy nothing.
Long -
term challenges in its core business segments along with value destroying management are two reasons for these
metrics grinding lower but at a certain point,
valuation can become rather compelling.
The paper discusses and identifies the historical outperformance of Value Investing, with the dataset focussing on 1980 - 2014 and showing that over the long
term, the value premium was evident across
valuation metrics, regions and market capitalizations.