One of Buffett's most controversial bets — a bubble - era wager on the long -
term value of stock market indexes, using tools he once scorned as «weapons of financial mass destruction» — started to pay off in the fourth quarter.
Not exact matches
Graham's philosophy
of «
value investing» — which shields investors from substantial error and teaches them to develop long -
term strategies — has made The Intelligent Investor the
stock market bible ever since its original publication in 1949.»
Such risks, uncertainties and other factors include, without limitation: (1) the effect
of economic conditions in the industries and
markets in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate in the U.S. and globally and any changes therein, including financial
market conditions, fluctuations in commodity prices, interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates, levels
of end
market demand in construction and in both the commercial and defense segments
of the aerospace industry, levels
of air travel, financial condition
of commercial airlines, the impact
of weather conditions and natural disasters and the financial condition
of our customers and suppliers; (2) challenges in the development, production, delivery, support, performance and realization
of the anticipated benefits
of advanced technologies and new products and services; (3) the scope, nature, impact or timing
of acquisition and divestiture or restructuring activity, including the pending acquisition
of Rockwell Collins, including among other things integration
of acquired businesses into United Technologies» existing businesses and realization
of synergies and opportunities for growth and innovation; (4) future timing and levels
of indebtedness, including indebtedness expected to be incurred by United Technologies in connection with the pending Rockwell Collins acquisition, and capital spending and research and development spending, including in connection with the pending Rockwell Collins acquisition; (5) future availability
of credit and factors that may affect such availability, including credit
market conditions and our capital structure; (6) the timing and scope
of future repurchases
of United Technologies» common
stock, which may be suspended at any time due to various factors, including
market conditions and the level
of other investing activities and uses
of cash, including in connection with the proposed acquisition
of Rockwell; (7) delays and disruption in delivery
of materials and services from suppliers; (8) company and customer - directed cost reduction efforts and restructuring costs and savings and other consequences thereof; (9) new business and investment opportunities; (10) our ability to realize the intended benefits
of organizational changes; (11) the anticipated benefits
of diversification and balance
of operations across product lines, regions and industries; (12) the outcome
of legal proceedings, investigations and other contingencies; (13) pension plan assumptions and future contributions; (14) the impact
of the negotiation
of collective bargaining agreements and labor disputes; (15) the effect
of changes in political conditions in the U.S. and other countries in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate, including the effect
of changes in U.S. trade policies or the U.K.'s pending withdrawal from the EU, on general
market conditions, global trade policies and currency exchange rates in the near
term and beyond; (16) the effect
of changes in tax (including U.S. tax reform enacted on December 22, 2017, which is commonly referred to as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
of 2017), environmental, regulatory (including among other things import / export) and other laws and regulations in the U.S. and other countries in which United Technologies and Rockwell Collins operate; (17) the ability
of United Technologies and Rockwell Collins to receive the required regulatory approvals (and the risk that such approvals may result in the imposition
of conditions that could adversely affect the combined company or the expected benefits
of the merger) and to satisfy the other conditions to the closing
of the pending acquisition on a timely basis or at all; (18) the occurrence
of events that may give rise to a right
of one or both
of United Technologies or Rockwell Collins to terminate the merger agreement, including in circumstances that might require Rockwell Collins to pay a termination fee
of $ 695 million to United Technologies or $ 50 million
of expense reimbursement; (19) negative effects
of the announcement or the completion
of the merger on the
market price
of United Technologies» and / or Rockwell Collins» common
stock and / or on their respective financial performance; (20) risks related to Rockwell Collins and United Technologies being restricted in their operation
of their businesses while the merger agreement is in effect; (21) risks relating to the
value of the United Technologies» shares to be issued in connection with the pending Rockwell acquisition, significant merger costs and / or unknown liabilities; (22) risks associated with third party contracts containing consent and / or other provisions that may be triggered by the Rockwell merger agreement; (23) risks associated with merger - related litigation or appraisal proceedings; and (24) the ability
of United Technologies and Rockwell Collins, or the combined company, to retain and hire key personnel.
His evidence: rising short rates, low long -
term rates (suggestive
of little inflation), the rise in
value stocks, and outperformance in emerging
markets relative to U.S. equities.
Just how Tribune (TPUB) would mount a hostile takeover bid for Gannett (GCI), a company that is more than four times its size in
terms of stock -
market value, is unclear.
Subject to the provisions
of our 2015 Plan, the administrator will determine the other
terms of stock appreciation rights, including when such rights become exercisable and whether to pay any amount
of appreciation in cash, shares
of our Class A common
stock, or a combination thereof, except that the per share exercise price for the shares to be issued pursuant to the exercise
of a
stock appreciation right must be no less than 100 %
of the fair
market value per share on the date
of grant.
The
term of an incentive
stock option may not exceed ten years, except that with respect to any participant who owns more than 10 %
of the voting power
of all classes
of our outstanding
stock, the
term must not exceed five years and the exercise price must equal at least 110 %
of the fair
market value on the grant date subject to the provisions
of our 2015 Plan.
This leads to a fundamental belief among
value investors that although the
stock market may, in the short -
term, wildly depart from the fundamentals
of a business, in the long - run the fundamentals are all that matter.
Provided, however, that an incentive
stock option held by a participant who owns more than 10 %
of the total combined voting power
of all classes
of our
stock, or
of certain
of our parent or subsidiary corporations, may not have a
term in excess
of five years and must have an exercise price
of at least 110 %
of the fair
market value of our common
stock on the grant date.
Subject to the provisions
of our 2016 Plan, the administrator determines the other
terms and conditions
of stock appreciation rights, including when such rights become exercisable and whether to pay any increased appreciation in cash or with shares
of our common
stock, or a combination thereof, except that the per share exercise price for the shares to be issued pursuant to the exercise
of a
stock appreciation right will be no less than 100 %
of the fair
market value per share on the date
of grant.
Subject to the provisions
of our 2010 Plan, the administrator determines the
terms of stock appreciation rights, including when such rights vest and become exercisable and whether to settle such awards in cash or with shares
of our common
stock, or a combination thereof, except that the per share exercise price for the shares to be issued pursuant to the exercise
of a
stock appreciation right will be no less than 100 %
of the fair
market value per share on the date
of grant.
Subject to the provisions
of our 2013 Plan, the administrator determines the other
terms of stock appreciation rights, including when such rights become exercisable and whether to pay any increased appreciation in cash or with shares
of our common
stock, or a combination thereof, except that the per share exercise price for the shares to be issued pursuant to the exercise
of a
stock appreciation right will be no less than 100 %
of the fair
market value per share on the date
of grant.
Under the
terms of our equity incentive plans, the fair
market value on the grant date is defined as the average
of the high and low trading prices
of FedEx's
stock on the New York Stock Exchange on that
stock on the New York
Stock Exchange on that
Stock Exchange on that day.
The
term of an incentive
stock option may not exceed 10 years, except that with respect to any participant who owns more than 10 %
of the voting power
of all classes
of our outstanding
stock, the
term must not exceed 5 years and the exercise price must equal at least 110 %
of the fair
market value on the grant date.
The
term of an incentive
stock option may not exceed ten years, except that with respect to any participant who owns more than 10 %
of the voting power
of all classes
of our outstanding
stock, the
term must not exceed five years and the exercise price must equal at least 110 %
of the fair
market value on the grant date.
This compares poorly to the Consumer Staples Sector, where 73 % (in
terms of market value of stocks)
of stocks get and Attractive - or - better rating.
78 % (in
terms of market value)
of stocks in the Financial Sector are Neutral - or - worse - rated
stocks.
We argued that the
market had experienced a multi-year process
of de-rating, as
stock prices languished while corporate cash flows and book
values had multiplied, and had become inexpensive in absolute and relative
terms.
Reuters cited «a disappointing outlook from Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO)» as one
of the factors weighing on the
market this morning, but as I pointed out in my review
of Cisco's fiscal second - quarter earnings, the outlook wasn't disappointing and today's decline in the
stock looks like a buying opportunity for long -
term,
value - oriented investors.
I think it's in the nature
of long
term shareholding
of the normal vicissitudes, in worldly outcomes, and in
markets that the long -
term holder has his quoted
value of his
stocks go down by say 50 %.
But we continue to believe that in the absence
of a remarkable increase in bank revenue and earnings this week and next, the
market value of equity for the four zombie dance queens is likely to go lower in the near
term as
value and
stock prices return to balance.
The default assumptions for comparing the harvesting strategies are 60:40 equity bonds, 30 year retirement and portfolios
of bonds in intermediate (not short)
term treasuries and
stock in 70 % total
market and 10 % each in small company, small
value and large
value.
We don't believe this higher price
of oil reflects a long -
term market - clearing price and, for that reason, we
value oil
stocks using an assumption thatoil prices will fall.
Now, finally, the
stock market is fairly -
valued for conditions
of low inflation and low interest rates (assuming average long -
term economic growth in the future).
In the short -
term, the
market's tide will raise and lower all boats, but
value investing works in the long - run, and unless you're in a late 1990's type mania, I think it probably is best to completely ignore the overall
market and just focus on looking for undervalued
stocks of individual companies that you think will be doing more business in five years than they are now.
Looking back through history, whenever
value stocks have gotten this cheap, subsequent long -
term returns have generally been strong.3 From current depressed valuation levels,
value stocks have in the past, on average, doubled over the next five years.4 Not that we necessarily expect returns
of this magnitude this time around, but based on the data and our six decades
of experience investing through various
market cycles, we believe the current risk / reward proposition is heavily skewed in favor
of long -
term value investors.
Cory Renauer (Geron): My biotech
stock pick to begin the new year suffered a
market beat - down in 2016, and is now one
of its industry's most intriguing long -
term value plays.
(gg) «
Stock Appreciation Right» or «SAR» means a right granted under Section 8 which entitles the recipient to receive an amount equal to the excess
of the Fair
Market Value of a Share on the date
of exercise
of the
Stock Appreciation Right over the exercise price thereof on such
terms and conditions as are specified in the agreement or other documents evidencing the Award (the «SAR Agreement»).
Templeton, Graham and Buffett reasoned that herding behavior (including momentum traders and short -
term speculators that chase price trends) and overreaction bias (the tendency
of people to overreact to bad news) are strong forces in the
market that can push
stocks far below their fair
value.
Value stocks, small - cap companies,
stocks with momentum — all
of these have indeed been shown to outperform the broad
market over the long
term in many studies.
The portfolio managers seek to purchase
stocks that are reasonably priced in relation to their fundamental
value and that the portfolio managers believe will grow in
value over time regardless
of short -
term market fluctuations.
For those unfamiliar with the
term, «enterprise
value» is defined here as
market cap (including preferred
stock) +
value of net debt, or what you might think
of as the acquisition price
of the company.
While there is much that remains unknowable in financial
markets, what we do know is that Graham's «big idea» — that a common
stock represents a fractional ownership interest in a business and that the essence
of investment is to attempt to exploit discrepancies between the intrinsic
value of a business and its price in publicly traded
markets — has empirically and practically worked over the long
term.
John Bogle and other lumpers warn us that it's unlikely that a typical investor will stick with a strategy that doesn't work as expected for 10 years or longer, and that abandoning the bets on small - cap or
value stocks after an extended period
of underperformance will reduce the investor's long -
term returns relative to simply investing in the total
stock market.
Negative publicity relating to unsatisfactory earnings reports or legal problems are indicators
of a
value stock as the
market will negatively view the company's long -
term prospects.
Instead
of the rational machine for accurately
valuing assets that we all think it is, the
stock market might actually be a sloppy and chaotic mechanism that at best only tends toward true long -
term value.
For investors with a long -
term investment horizon seeking capital appreciation in excess
of stock market returns, the Towle Deep
Value Fund may diversify their scope
of investment and potentially enhance core equity portfolios.
Just as individual companies, the
stock market and currencies follow the investment
market's pendulum swings
of euphoria to depression and overpricing to underpricing to use some
of the
terms often used by the legendary
value investor Howard Marks.
The author warns, «Portfolio managers who pursue the long -
term benefits
of exposure to the momentum factor may place the portfolio's
value at risk when momentum results or
market returns change direction, potentially upending the benefits
of a recent positive exposure to momentum
stocks.»
All
stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index come from the top 125 eligible securities in
terms of market value.
To the long -
term value investor, there are really only a handful
of circumstances that warrant a retreat from the
stock market:
Investing authority Paul Merriman explains how to turn $ 3,000 into $ 50 million and talks to Joe and Big Al about
value vs. growth companies,
market timing, choosing the right mix
of stocks, bonds and other investments, and which
stocks don't beat even Treasuries in the long
term.
Piotroski recognized that, although it has long been shown that
value stocks (or high book - to -
market firms as he calls them) have strong returns as a group, there is nevertheless a very wide variability in
terms of the returns
of these
stocks, with most
of them performing worse than the
market.
But once the
market becomes not only richly
valued, but sentiment becomes broadly bullish and
stocks become overbought on a shorter -
term basis, the return / risk profile
of the
market becomes unfavorable even for speculation» (see Baron Rothschild).
Of course, we're already seeing this phenomenon in terms of investor sentiment & the markets... and conversely, small cap / value stocks are now being generally neglected as far too difficult & illiquid a proposition for most such buyer
Of course, we're already seeing this phenomenon in
terms of investor sentiment & the markets... and conversely, small cap / value stocks are now being generally neglected as far too difficult & illiquid a proposition for most such buyer
of investor sentiment & the
markets... and conversely, small cap /
value stocks are now being generally neglected as far too difficult & illiquid a proposition for most such buyers.
They have also broken out the performance
of value stocks during Japan's long -
term bear
market over the 1990 to 2011 period, when the
stock market dropped 62.21 percent.
That is — the
value of your portfolio assuming the long -
term valuation
of the
stock market is only 60 %
of the current valuation.
To calculate the «true»
value of your investments (that is, what their price would be at the
stock market's long -
term average valuation) you just multiply the
value of your investments by the MCTWI.
The real key to a successful retirement investing strategy is to arrive at an appropriate mix
of stocks vs. bonds — that is, enough
stocks to provide a bit
of long -
term growth potential but also a large enough bond stake to prevent your nest egg from losing too much
value when the
stock market goes into one
of its periodic slumps.
Do that, and you'll gain exposure to virtually every type
of publicly traded
stock in the world (large and small, growth and
value, domestic and foreign, all industries and sectors) as well as the entire U.S. investment - grade taxable bond
market (short - to long -
term maturities, corporates, Treasuries and mortgage - backed issues).