Here's a piece I wrote recently for Bloomberg talking about both short - and long -
term volatility in the markets and how investors can think about its meaning.
In summary, there is some short -
term volatility in the markets and we think that gives us an opportunity to reposition our portfolios.
And as long as you focus on the long - term, you don't have to worry about short -
term volatility in the market.
Not exact matches
This resulted
in a much more interesting index, one that competes well with other favorites
in terms of
volatility and correlation to broad
market movement.
Yusuke Ikawa, rates strategist at RBS Securities
in Japan, also ruled out imminent action from the BOJ and said uncertainty over who will be the next central bank governor could cause
market volatility in the short
term.
With
market volatility making headlines, it's easy to get caught up
in the day - to - day ups and downs, panic, and lose sight of your long -
term investment goals.
Although increased
market volatility might make traders more dependent on Bloomberg's services
in the short
term, any contraction
in global trade and capital
markets would inevitably lower demand for the company's services over time.
«Freight is the largest variable cost for many shippers, and technology has the power to smooth that
volatility,» says Tillman, who wants to ensure that products can be delivered faster, cheaper and free from corruption leading to his long -
term goal: «One - click technology to do an honest trade anywhere
in the world, so you can open up new
markets at moment's notice.»
The week ahead is big
in terms of
market volatility, and investors are deciding on which safe haven to park their cash
in.
Uncertainty about the U.S. presidential race
in the near
term may produce periods of
volatility for the U.S. dollar, yet RBC maintains that the U.S. currency will post modest gains against the Euro, Canadian dollar and sterling as
markets look for a U.S. Federal Reserve policy rate increase
in the first half of 2017.
Plan for a variety of
markets: An investing approach built with your goals and situation
in mind may help you cope with short -
term volatility.
All
markets will continue to focus on the
volatility in the equity and bond
markets, geopolitical events, developments with the Trump Administration, corporate earnings, oil prices, and will turn to this afternoon's FOMC Meeting Statement followed by reports tomorrow on UK PMI, Eurozone PPI, CPI, US Challenger Job Cuts, Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Jobless Claims, Trade Balance, Markit Services PMI, ISM Services, Durable Goods and Factory Orders for near
term direction.
While most investors who have a long -
term plan probably don't need to make any portfolio changes
in anticipation of a spike
in market volatility, some more active investors may want to take action to prepare for a correction.
Goldman also pointed to some technical factors producing headwinds that are normalizing, including pressure on short -
term funding
markets due to repatriation of cash parked
in short -
term credit, and reduced appetite for selling equity
volatility.
All
markets will continue to focus on the
volatility in the equity and bond
markets, geopolitical events, developments with the Trump Administration, corporate earnings, oil prices, and will turn to reports tomorrow on Japanese PMI, UK PMI, US Vehicle Sales, Markit Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending and ISM Manufacturing for near
term guidance.
Short -
term risks include a worsening of geopolitical tensions and a reversal of recent risks spread and
volatility compression
in financial
markets.
All
markets will continue to focus on the
volatility in the equity and bond
markets, geopolitical events, developments with the Trump Administration, corporate earnings, oil prices, and will turn to reports tomorrow on Japan's Leading Index and Machine Tool Orders, German IFO, US Case - Shiller Home Price Index, New Home Sales, Richmond Fed and Consumer Confidence for near
term guidance.
In other words, the
market quickly took care of inefficiencies and the extreme
volatility did nothing to harm long -
term retirement investors.
It will not maximize gains
in rising stock
markets, but it can capture a substantial portion of the gains over the longer
term, with less
volatility than just investing
in stocks.
Furthermore, it seeks to achieve these returns with a lower level of
volatility than the broader Australian stock
market over the medium to long
term in order to smooth returns for investors.
But this unexpectedly sanguine report was a reminder that the beginning of a Fed tightening cycle could be near, and the subsequent selloff is a clear sign that the U.S.
market is vulnerable to higher
volatility in the near
term, even though we like the long -
term prospects of stocks.
In the second quarter, funding costs will be higher related to long -
term debt and capital instruments, while the bank also cautioned that
market volatility remains muted.
Here we show that traders with exogenously induced short -
term elevations
in cortisol adopt riskier investment strategies and that higher overall cortisol
in the
market predicts higher aggregate mispricing and
volatility.
The current state of the global economy threatens to cause further tightening of the credit
markets, more stringent lending standards and
terms and higher
volatility in interest rates.
Only equity
market investors are convinced that
volatility will remain low
in the near
term.
The dollar bond
market has turned cold for Indian firms after a record 2017, with rising global interest rates, geopolitical concerns and
market volatility prompting would - be financiers to demand either a higher yield or invest only
in short -
term paper maturing
in two years.
As the review of liquidity cycles suggests, wider «
markets»
in expected economic outcomes (which would mean greater short -
term volatility) could promote long -
term financial stability.
Although BTC has been
in a bear
market since peaking
in December, it still offers numerous short
term trading opportunities due to its high
volatility.
Ashwin Alankar of Janus Henderson articulated a view that central bank induced
term premium suppression is akin to the killing of wolves
in Yellowstone that fueled the overpopulation of elks, and the subsequent overgrazing which decimated the ecosystem is similar to present day's rise
in market distortions and vulnerability to
volatility
Given the above, it is reasonable to argue that even a small scale
volatility shock would likely induce heightened
market reaction, even if the event merely reverses some of the
term premium compression
in the sovereign bond
markets.
Specifically, they relate spot West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price to: the U.S. dollar exchange rate versus a basket of developed
market currencies; Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) return; U.S. short -
term interest rate; the S&P 500 options - implied
volatility index (VIX); and, open interest
in the NYMEX crude oil futures (as an indication of financialization of the oil
market).
During the subsequent conference call, Gayner reiterated that Markel's «short -
term investment results reflect normal short -
term volatility,» and are essentially
in line with changes
in both equity
markets and interest rates.
Since the inception of the Fund (as well, of course,
in long -
term historical tests), our present approach to risk management has both added to returns and reduced
volatility - not necessarily
in any short period, but over the complete
market cycle.
«When I purchased long -
term zero - coupon bonds
in the early 1980's at
market yields
in excess of 13 %, I welcomed the prospect of outsized
volatility because I felt it would eventually work
in my favour.»
In the December quarter, however, we modestly increased the equity allocation as short -
term market volatility afforded us opportunities to establish new positions.
For those holding stocks long
term and worried about
volatility in the
market, adding a bit of VXX could help to hedge your portfolio.
February's
volatility in the equities
market was a reminder of how important it is to keep money for short -
term goals out of the stock
market.
As a matter of convention, the prices of options traded
in over-the-counter
markets are quoted
in terms of the option implied
volatility rather than
in monetary units.
Traditionally, large global money center banks served to reduce such
market volatility by buying and selling reserves of securities and other financial instruments to take advantage of short -
term anomalies
in market prices.
Although it's painful to watch this
market volatility in the U.S. and China, it's beneficial to keep long -
term opportunities
in mind.
But fatigue,
in the form of rising policy risks and extended valuations, will drive greater
volatility, including a higher likelihood of a short -
term market correction this year.
In fact, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) traded at its lowest level in decades for much of the year.1 Known as the fear gauge, the VIX reflects the market's short - term outlook for stock price volatilit
In fact, the CBOE
Volatility Index (VIX) traded at its lowest level in decades for much of the year.1 Known as the fear gauge, the VIX reflects the market's short - term outlook for stock price v
Volatility Index (VIX) traded at its lowest level
in decades for much of the year.1 Known as the fear gauge, the VIX reflects the market's short - term outlook for stock price volatilit
in decades for much of the year.1 Known as the fear gauge, the VIX reflects the
market's short -
term outlook for stock price
volatilityvolatility.
Regardless of what the future holds
in terms of political results, from a
market standpoint, we anticipate more
volatility going forward — and this could be a good thing for hedged strategies.
While short -
term market volatility may be scary, selling when stocks fall and trying to wait it out on the sidelines can create other problems, like figuring out when to get back
in and missing out on a potential rebound.
We believe the positive economic forces currently present
in the global economy will remain strong enough to overcome the potentially negative impact tighter policy will have, but we could see some short -
term volatility as
markets adjust.
The risk exposure to which you exposed your capital, measured not by
volatility in market quotation but
in the price paid relative to intrinsic value with an adjustment for the potential of wipeout, is the real secret of building wealth over the long
term.
For traders seeking to profit from the increased
volatility in the
market, they should ensure that their trades are based on the short -
term perspective.
Our model indicates that going forward, long -
term yields will likely be subject to three upward pressures: (1) Our forecasted increase
in inflation will boost nominal GDP growth; (2) As forward guidance is replaced by a data - dependent monetary tightening,
volatility in short rates will increase; and (3) As the impact of QE on the Treasury
market fades, long -
term yields will trend back to their historical link with nominal GDP growth.
You know, that long -
term history we're talking about earlier of stocks is made up of that bull
market part that's kind of two - X the long -
term average, and then all that negative that goes with it, and the blessedness that comes from owning stocks
in the long -
term includes all that
volatility.
All
markets will continue to focus on the
volatility in the equity and bond
markets, geopolitical events, developments with the Trump Administration, corporate earnings, oil prices, and will turn to tomorrow's much awaited US Payroll Report for near
term direction..