Sentences with phrase «term volcanic forcing»

That is mainly because volcanic forcing switch from a positive trend (going from heavy volcanism from 1981 - 1993 to very ilttle in 1995 - 2005) to a negative trend (going from ~ zero volcanism in 2005 to an assumed long term volcanic forcing of -0.23 W / m2 thereafter — showing as zero because RCP volcanic forcing has 0.23 W / m2 added to it).

IIRC, long - term volcanic forcing is negligible, and solar influence is not a major factor (15 % on decadal time scales according to Trenberth).

Constraining ECS from the observed responses to individual volcanic eruptions is difficult because the response to short - term volcanic forcing is strongly nonlinear in ECS, yielding only slightly enhanced peak responses and substantially extended response times for very high sensitivities (Frame et al., 2005; Wigley et al., 2005a).

Not exact matches

In addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to albedo changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossible.

You can show quite easily that without water - vapour feedbacks (for instance), you can not get a good match to volcanic forcings and responses in the real world (Soden et al, 2005), or to ENSO, or to the long term trends.

The portion associated with short term forcings (solar, unaccounted - for volcanic aerosols, undercounts of Chinese pollution) will depend on their long term evolution — if they stabilise, you'd get a delay.

The IPCC has failed to convincingly explain the pause in terms of external radiative forcing from greenhouse gases, aerosols, solar or volcanic forcing; this leaves natural internal variability as the predominant candidate to explain the pause.

The short - term cooling imparted by volcanic aerosols is clearly non-anthropogenic, but these forcings are reasonably well known from relevant observational data.

Volcanic impact is «small» when the forcing is «global» only because a portion of the short term impact is «averaged» out.

correction: a volcanic eruption is short term, but imposes a forcing, not an internal «fluctuation».

Are they still valid, if an external forcing leads to a very strong but rather short - term disturbance (e.g. a very strong volcanic eruption) that either acts regionally (high - latitude eruption) or hemispherically (tropical eruption)?

Volcanic eruptions caused some large short - term negative forcings (according to GISS, that is — I think they were actually much smaller) but had no overall effect.

The former is the result of internal variability and radiative forcing (solar output and volcanic activity) rather than long - term changes in Earth's orbital geometry.

I always believed that the oceans were an important element in localised weather conditions over the short term but feel that relatively sudden shifts in climate occur through external forcings such as volcanic eruptions, meteor strike and the effects of changes in cosmic rays and sun spot activity, which are, unfortunately, all chaotic by nature and unpredictable.

Note that the deep ocean plays a lesser role in heat storage or dissipation from short term forcings (e.g., volcanic eruptions), and so equilibrium in these cases can be nearly complete within decades — a major difference from persistent CO2 forcing.

There are mulltple approaches that try and filter out ENSO effects, PDO, IPO, volcanic, and even solar — taking both postive AND negative additions to forcings, to see what residual underlying long - term forcing from anthropogenic sources might remain.

Thus the RCP scenarios assume the long - term average volcanic forcing in the future, and they hold it constant, which is reasonable because as you say we can't predict the next eruption.

Your value is however an instantaneous number, while you'd indispensably be required to use an integrated value which reflects the counterbalancing long - term effects of the strong volcanic forcing pulses (which remain in the system, yet unaccounted in your analysis).

Volcanic forcing is more likely the driver of the pseudo-oscillations than just solar and since they, solar and volcanic, have similar frequencies, may be connected, so you can argue that their longer term impact is underestimated and not really natural variability, but there is a «oscillatory» settling Volcanic forcing is more likely the driver of the pseudo-oscillations than just solar and since they, solar and volcanic, have similar frequencies, may be connected, so you can argue that their longer term impact is underestimated and not really natural variability, but there is a «oscillatory» settling volcanic, have similar frequencies, may be connected, so you can argue that their longer term impact is underestimated and not really natural variability, but there is a «oscillatory» settling pattern.

So, this would be a modulating force to prevent short term heating of the surface, as more volcanoes would produce short term cooling from volcanic aerosols.

In fact the long term behaviour of the temperature record does correlate reasonably well with CO2 in the long term (longer than the semi-regular modulations due to ENSO and other shorter term forcings and the duration of intermittent one off events such as volcanic activity).