This warming is strongly centered on the subpolar Northern oceans, diffusing over the continents, but with little resemblance to the observed long -
term warming pattern.
Not exact matches
While natural
patterns of certain atmospheric and ocean conditions are already known to influence Greenland melt, the study highlights the importance of a long -
term warming trend to account for the unprecedented west Greenland melt rates in recent years.
So if you think of going in [a]
warming direction of 2 degrees C compared to a cooling direction of 5 degrees C, one can say that we might be changing the Earth, you know, like 40 percent of the kind of change that went on between the Ice Age; and now are going back in time and so a 2 - degree change, which is about 4 degrees F on a global average, is going to be very significant in
terms of change in the distribution of vegetation, change in the kind of climate zones in certain areas, wind
patterns can change, so where rainfall happens is going to shift.
Most people in the general public now know the
term, and they have a vague idea that it is some kind of
pattern in the Pacific Ocean that means the U.S. will have a
warm winter... or snowy winter... or hot summer — or something.
However, it says the observed changes in fire activity are in line with long -
term, global fire
patterns that climate models have projected will occur as temperatures increase and droughts become more severe in the coming decades due to global
warming.
However, if one downweights these two events (either by eliminating or, as in Cane et al» 97, using a «robust» trend), then an argument can be made for a long -
term pattern which is in some respects more «La Nina» - like, i.e. little
warming in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, and far more
warming in the western equatorial Pacific and Indian oceans, associated with a strengthening, not weakening, of the negative equatorial Pacific zonal SST gradient.
Long -
term (decadal and multi-decadal) variation in total annual streamflow is largely influenced by quasi-cyclic changes in sea - surface temperatures and resulting climate conditions; the influence of climate
warming on these
patterns is uncertain.
It appears that the climate changes according to a repeating 60 year or so
pattern with 30 years of general
warming and 30 years of general cooling, this
pattern superimposed, we hope, on a very slow longer
term warming trend.
Even though these are the same areas that tend to have above average temperatures during El Niño winters, this
pattern is also consistent with the long -
term trend we are seeing with global
warming.
«Weekly or daily weather
patterns tell you nothing about longer -
term climate change (and that goes for the
warm days too).
However, if one downweights these two events (either by eliminating or, as in Cane et al» 97, using a «robust» trend), then an argument can be made for a long -
term pattern which is in some respects more «La Nina» - like, i.e. little
warming in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, and far more
warming in the western equatorial Pacific and Indian oceans, associated with a strengthening, not weakening, of the negative equatorial Pacific zonal SST gradient.
So here we are, still facing a clear long -
term picture (more CO2 =
warming world = less ice + higher seas + lots of changing climate
patterns), but sufficient murk in the short run to fuel the «green noise» and «destructive interference» in climate discourse.
A clear
pattern of exceptional and record - setting
warm air temperatures is evident at long -
term meteorological stations around Greenland (Table GL1).
In
terms of the gold that a climate science denier might find in the paper, at the very least, they could argue that the fact that the troposphere isn't
warming more quickly than the surface shows that the climate models are unreliable — even though the models predict just the
pattern of
warming that we see — with the troposphere
warming more quickly than the surface over the ocean but less quickly than the surface over land.
Also, the
term «global
pattern of
warming» implies regional temperature change, which pushes the climate system response discussion to a much higher level of complexity than when simply talking about changes in global - mean climate.
Like the climate scientists on RealClimate contend, Kolbert notes that no particular storm can be caused by global
warming, but that the long -
term patterns don't look good... increased greenhouse gases =
warmer oceans = more destructive hurricanes.
This single
pattern has a long -
term global
warming rate of 0.06 deg C per decade and an oscillation due to ocean cycles (http://bit.ly/nfQr92) of 0.5 deg C every 30 years as shown in the following two graphs.
«periods no
warming or even slight cooling can easily be part of a longer -
term pattern of global
warming.»
Itzkan added that there is a continuing long -
term trend of
warmer and wetter weather across the country, a
pattern that leads to more storms.
Phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña — which
warm and cool the tropical Pacific Ocean and cause corresponding variations in global wind and weather
patterns — contribute to short -
term variations in global temperatures.
Attendees also discussed complicated problems, including hydroclimatic responses to situations where anomalous events like the 2015 — 2016 El Niño are superimposed onto long -
term heterogeneous ocean -
warming patterns.
If that is the case, then how do you make that determination — as it would require that you distinguish that
warming from the long -
term cyclical
patterns you describe?
Global
warming was once an uncommon
term used by a few scientists who were growing concerned over the effects of decades of pollution on long -
term weather
patterns.
Climate change is the long -
term average of a region's weather events lumped together.There are some effects of greenhouse gases and global
warming: melting of ice caps, rising sea levels, change in climatic
patterns, spread diseases, economic consequences, increased droughts and heat waves.
Using software program Sketch Engine, I looked at how frequently the key corporate
terms «climate change», «greenhouse effect», and «global
warming» were used in each year to reveal how
patterns of attention changed over time.
Solar forcing is the only known natural forcing acting to
warm the climate over this period but it has increased much less than greenhouse gas forcing, and the observed
pattern of long
term tropospheric
warming and stratospheric cooling is not consistent with the expected response to solar irradiance variations.
Mike Jonas: we assert that the linear
warming from 1850 forwards is part of some long -
term pattern which we do not choose to characterize.
Yet most research in the field has focused on improving predictions of regional ocean
warming driven by long -
term climate change and short -
term climate
patterns like the El Niño - Southern Oscillation cycle.
They found that global temperatures fluctuated in specific regional
patterns but that all regions except Antarctica saw a long -
term cooling trend followed by significant
warming in the past 30 years.
While natural
patterns of certain atmospheric and ocean conditions are already known to influence Greenland melt, the study highlights the importance of a long -
term warming trend to account for the unprecedented west Greenland melt rates in recent years.
In 70s & 80s, before encroachment of global
warming in to climate studies, before starting analyzing rainfall data by clubbing the rainfall of different rain gauge stations, we used to homogenize the rain gauge stations in
terms of rainfall
patterns.
«Our study shows that the rapid rise in west Greenland melt is a combination of specific weather
patterns and an additional long -
term warming trend over the last century.»
Therefore, they sought an answer in
terms of the atmospheric flow
pattern that drives ocean circulation and results in the advection of
warm water into the northeastern North Atlantic.
It includes the cyclical long
term patterns as well as the human influences (anthropogenic induced global
warming - which is one of the effects measurable in certain places).
Long -
term pattern and magnitude of soil carbon feedback to the climate system in a
warming world
Water vapor, which is a greenhouse gas, albeit short lived, and a component of and response to weather conditions — but not, being so ephemeral, a driver of much longer
term weather
patterns (or climate)-- and due to it's heavy prevalence the greenhouse gas that is on average responsible for more re ra - radiated heat than any other, in fact is not
warming, but cooling.
For instance, Mojib Latif of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in Germany and his colleagues published a paper in 2008 that suggested ocean circulation
patterns might cause a period of cooling in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, even though the long -
term pattern of
warming remained in effect.
We devote particular attention to proxy - based reconstructions of temperature
patterns in past centuries, which place recent large - scale
warming in an appropriate longer -
term context.
Doing so would also require establishing that the long -
term evolution of tropical SST
patterns in coupled GCMs forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations is realistic, notwithstanding that CMIP5 historical simulations do not match the observed
warming pattern.
We are still ignorant of what drives longer
term variation of ENSO
patterns, the PDO / AMO and the long cycle from the Medieval
Warm Period through the Little Ice Age to the Current
Warm Period.
Despite the ensemble mean showing a
warming over much of the Northern hemisphere, there is diversity across the ensemble members in
terms of their predicted spatial
patterns.