Climatologist and geologist that study long
term weather and climate are saying it is difficult to state categorically how the weather behaved in the past and it is more difficult if not impossible to state exactly how it will behave in the future.
Short, medium and long -
term weather and climate forecasts are wrong and below any level of usability.
In addition, they said, the data should help improve long -
term weather and climate forecasting, and should help in understanding the workings of severe storms.
Not exact matches
He has not really addressed the fact that the notion of
climate, as distinct from the notion of
weather, is not concerned with particular features of a single trajectory or history, but with the fact that there are some general features about certain kinds of time
and system averages over many trajectories -
and that these average features tend to show certain kinds of regularity or slow secular variation that are not apparent in a single trajectory (the
term secular here has a technical meaning, not the common one of «not religious»).
Unless... Suppose David Cameron
and Nick Clegg announced that they agreed with Ed Miliband's warning over the weekend that Britain is «sleepwalking to a crisis»,
and that «
climate change threatens national security» —
and went on to commit themselves to working together on a long -
term plan to protect the nation not just from extreme
weather conditions but the other consequences of
climate change.
Mayor Bloomberg created a taskforce to develop a long -
term plan for the city based on expected future
climate change, severe
weather occurrences,
and how to rebuild better.
Weathers and Kendall note «here is one starting point for examining, tracking,
and critically assessing the story of
climate change in public health
terms — a project that deserves further attention from communication, environment,
and public health scholars.»
«We should be thinking of ways to reduce our negative effects on the natural environment
and these results show that if we do basic conservation
and management, it can make a big difference in
terms of how ecosystems will
weather climate change,» Harley said.
Understanding the balance between climatic changes
and weather - driven mortality requires data on both long -
term climate trends
and the toll taken by extreme
weather.
The Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego
and Columbia University's Lamont - Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York, announced today the establishment of a center, the International Research Institute (IRI), that will use cutting - edge
climate models to forecast long -
term weather changes.
Professor David Schultz, one of the authors of the guest editorial, said: «One of the long -
term effects of
climate change is often predicted to be an increase in the intensity
and frequency of many high - impact
weather events, so reducing greenhouse gas emissions is often seen to be the response to the problem.
Schultz, a professor of synoptic meteorology,
and co-author Dr Vladimir Janković, a science historian specialising in
weather and climate, say the short -
term, large variability from year to year in high - impact
weather makes it difficult, if not impossible, to draw conclusions about the correlation to longer -
term climate change.
And while weather patterns can change from year to year, Lake Superior appears to be behaving in ways that, to scientists, indicate long - term climate change: Water temperatures are rising and evaporation is up, which leads to lower water levels in some seaso
And while
weather patterns can change from year to year, Lake Superior appears to be behaving in ways that, to scientists, indicate long -
term climate change: Water temperatures are rising
and evaporation is up, which leads to lower water levels in some seaso
and evaporation is up, which leads to lower water levels in some seasons.
The results are extremely important in
terms of discerning how changes in the North Atlantic Ocean may impact the
climate and the
weather across the Northern Hemisphere in the future.
The costly disaster follows on the heels of a record - breaking year for devastation wrought by the vagaries of the
weather and longer -
term climate conditions.
But Foley hopes that, after the election, Hurricane Sandy will spur a long -
term discussion about
climate change
and extreme
weather events.
While the majority of
climate change scientists focus on the «direct» threats of changing temperatures
and precipitation after 2031, far fewer researchers are studying how short -
term human adaptation responses to seasonal changes
and extreme
weather events may threaten the survival of wildlife
and ecosystems much sooner.
Suomi NPP's job is to collect environmental observations of atmosphere, ocean
and land for both NOAA's
weather and oceanography operational missions
and NASA's research mission to continue the long -
term climate record to better understand Earth's
climate and long -
term trends.
Although snowstorms
and rising sea levels garner more of the headlines about extreme
weather driven by
climate change, drought is quickly rising as the most troublesome, near -
term impact.
Once Perlan is fully tested, says Austin, she hopes to get funding to use the glider as a long -
term scientific platform that would examine how hourly, seasonal or even decadal changes in the stratosphere affect
weather and climate.
Dr Li said the latest research findings give a better understanding of changes in human - perceived equivalent temperature,
and indicate global warming has stronger long -
term impacts on human beings under both extreme
and non-extreme
weather conditions, suggesting that
climate change adaptation can not just focus on heat wave events, but should be extended to the whole range of effects of temperature increases.
The study of planetary atmospheres other than the Earth's,
and in particular the study of the role of plasma - neutral interactions in their evolution, could contribute to our understanding of the long -
term space
weather (referred to also as space
climate) effects
and finally the origins of life itself (Yamauchi & Wahlund 2007).
Not only do the vagaries of
weather patterns
and ocean currents make it hard to see
climate changes, but the variability in what are often
termed the Earth System components complicates the picture enormously.
«They were questions about how ice sheets relate to sea level, changes in the ocean, changes in the atmosphere
and also changes in
weather and long -
term climate patterns,» says Dr Kennicutt.
In many respect,
weather forecasting / meteorology has been leading climatology in
terms of progress,
and advances in meteorology has often subsequently benefited
climate research.
The silicate + CO2 - > different silicate + carbonate chemical
weathering rate tends to increase with temperature globally,
and so is a negative feedback (but is too slow to damp out short
term changes)-- but chemical
weathering is also affected by vegetation, land area,
and terrain (
and minerology, though I'm not sure how much that varies among entire mountain ranges or
climate zones)-- ie mountanous regions which are in the vicinity of a warm rainy
climate are ideal for enhancing chemical
weathering (see Appalachians in the Paleozoic, more recently the Himalayas).
Even so, our forecasting abilities must further improve for Montanans to better prepare for short -
term variation in
weather patterns
and expected long -
term impacts associated with
climate change.
Over the long
term, however, scientists agree: As
climate change messes with
weather patterns, California will likely experience longer
and more severe droughts in the coming decades, threatening the sustainability of the state's main water supply system.
Additionally, teleconnections can be helpful in identifying likely seasonal
and annual
weather patterns
and, in some cases, longer -
term climate trends.
«Weekly or daily
weather patterns tell you nothing about longer -
term climate change (
and that goes for the warm days too).
Pilot study focusing on a region vulnerable to
climate change Although the study highlights that long
term changes in rainfall intensity are not always» man - made,» it does not necessarily mean that today's
weather anomalies across the Indian Ocean rim countries
and, in particular, their frequency, are not subject to human influence.
The statistics of the
weather make short
term climate prediction very difficult — particularly for
climate models that are not run with any kind of initialization for observations — this has been said over
and over.
We are at a remarkable juncture where (i) the price of oil
and nitrogen - based fertilizers is expected to increase, (ii) the long
term availability of phosphorus for fertilizers is in doubt, (iii) the erosion of soil is reducing yields,
and (iv)
climate change brings extreme
weather that impacts crop survival
and productivity.
Brainstorm with students a list of
weather or
climate terms, such as trade winds, tornadoes, atmosphere,
and so on.
Winter is a great time to extend your students» knowledge of
weather and the
climate with activities such as learning vocabulary
terms and the components of
climate systems, as well as how scientists act like detectives when studying
climate changes.
This is an excellent introduction lesson to
weather and climate with students having an attempt at completing a virtual
weather diary using the clip attached
and being introduced to key
terms.
Buffalo City, as East London is charmingly known, not only lies on one of the most sublime coastlines of the world - think warm Indian Ocean waters
and sub-tropical
weather that allow visitors to enjoy the
climate all year round - it also basks gloriously between the Nahoon River in the north
and the Buffalo River to the south of the city,
and the phrase «unspoilt beaches» was
termed with East London's beaches in mind.
The
terms «
climate event»
and «extreme
weather» have only recently entered common usage, yet the meteorological occurrences they refer to are as old as our planet's atmosphere.
Better still, get rid of the (
weather and El Nino influenced) short -
term five year averaging
and show long
term climate changes by putting ten
and twenty year moving averages on the data.
Secondly, we don't have full information about the current conditions,
and so, like for
weather forecasts, if there are aspects of
climate change that are chaotic, we can't predict those over the long
term.
First, don't argue odd bits of
weather and short
term climate.
Then let us not forget that although entropy (heat loss) escapes the earth system, some is trapped in increasing random motions which influences both, short interval
and chaotic
weather,
and longer
term climate and as well as other biological factors, like evolution
and carrying capacity.
Well my point is that a model that is tuned to match a
climate signal only, should not track, accurately, a record that is both a
climate and weather signal especially when we know that these medium
term effects can be quite strong, even if they cycle out in the longer
term.
7:22 p.m. Updates below Quite a few professional
climate skeptics have been crowing in the last few days about a 20 - percent downward shift in the short -
term forecast for global temperature (through 2017) from Britain's
weather and climate agency, best know as the Met Office.
It's a daunting task to try to detect any links between short -
term fluctuations in extreme
weather events
and the rising influence of accumulating greenhouse gases on
climate, given that extreme
weather is, by definition, rare.
I've been criticized by some environmentalists in recent years for writing that the long -
term picture (more CO2 = warmer world = less ice = higher seas
and lots of climatic
and ecological changes) is the only aspect of human - caused global warming that is solidly established,
and that efforts to link dramatic
weather - related events to the human influence on
climate could backfire should nature wiggle the other way for awhile.
James
and William - your post, unfortunately, perpetuates the use of
climate to refer to long
term weather statistics.
And you're right, any one of them could be just weather, but all of them, and as parts of long - term trends — that's climate chan
And you're right, any one of them could be just
weather, but all of them,
and as parts of long - term trends — that's climate chan
and as parts of long -
term trends — that's
climate change.
Due to this semi-random nature of
weather, it is wrong to blame any one event such as Katrina specifically on global warming —
and of course it is just as indefensible to blame Katrina on a long -
term natural cycle in the
climate.
I do think that we humans are needlessly speeding things along, but do not think that even if we get the global mean temperature increase below 2 degrees that we can not or will not have widespread droughts
and potential world catastrophes in
terms of both
weather and climate.