For all asset allocations, the penalty was calculated as one minus the ratio of
the terminal value of the portfolio with delayed or spread investments to the value of the portfolio when all investments were made as early as possible in January (baseline).
Generally, the lump - sum penalty had a positive relationship with the investment delay — the longer investor waited, the bigger the shortfall of
the terminal value of the portfolio.
Using some bonds in place of cash for ballast will increase (perhaps only slightly)
the terminal value of your portfolio in most cases.
A parallel to this in the indexing world is: higher the initial withdrawal rate, lower
the terminal value of the portfolio.
Not exact matches
The first chart in the article plots the
terminal value on May 31, 2015
of two hypothetical
portfolios.
By reducing the annual return 0.5 percent to 4.5 percent, a seemingly insignificant reduction, you reduce the expected
terminal value of the retirement
portfolio by roughly $ 30,000.
In our theoretical example with a 5 percent return, working until 70 rather than 65 increases the expected
terminal value of the individual's
portfolio from $ 353,000 to $ 480,000.
For example, if delayed or spread investments resulted in a
terminal portfolio value of $ 93,000 and January lump - sum investments generated $ 100,000, then the penalty was 1 — 93/100 = 7 %.
Because
of compounding growth (Article 3), we know that the slightly higher returns
of bonds in a bond / stock
portfolio will cause a substantially higher
terminal value than a
portfolio with a similar balance
of cash and stocks in most historical periods.
Thus, the first 10 %
of turnover accounts for more than half the
terminal value investors would forgo if they liquidated all
portfolio holdings and reinvested the proceeds every year.
There is no two ways about it — higher
portfolio return
of Irene will result in higher
terminal value.
Also called the internal rate
of return, the interest rate will make the present
value of the cash flows from all the sub-periods in the evaluation period plus the
terminal market
value of the
portfolio equal to the initial market
value of the
portfolio.