The notion that there is, in nature, «the climate sensitivity» (TECS) is scientifically nonsensical, for TECS is defined in
terms of the equilibrium temperature ∆ T but ∆ T is not an observable feature of the real world.
Scientists often talk about it in
terms of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), which is the
Scientists often talk about it in
terms of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), which is the long - term temperature increase that we expect from a permanent doubling of atmospheric CO2.
I never asserted that sensitivity in
terms of equilibrium time - average surface temperature change per unit change in TOA or even tropopause - level forcing (with or without stratospheric adjustment) would be the same for each type of forcing for each climatic state and the external forcings that maintain it (or for that matter, for each of those different of forcings (TOA vs tropopause, etc.) with everything held constant.
Strictly speaking, Marks» observation is correct, but to see what's actually happening here, it's important to think in
terms of equilibrium.
In
terms of equilibrium, this has more to do with the child's internal response.
Not exact matches
However, a large literature concludes that the
equilibrium real short -
term rate is very unlikely to be constant, with its value affected by many factors, including the pace
of technological change, fiscal policy and the evolution
of financial conditions.3
Still, we see less risk
of a renewed oil price plunge and the potential for a gradual rise toward long -
term equilibrium levels around $ 60 a barrel, where supply and demand are likely to find a better balance.
Jury is still out on secular stagnation — «At present, it looks likely that the
equilibrium interest rate will remain low for the policy - relevant future, but there have in the past been both long swings and short -
term changes in what can be thought
of as
equilibrium real rates»
And yes, actually the market reaction has really being quite muted and I don't know whether this partly reflects the new economic norm, you know the flattening
of the Phillips Curve, disruptive change, lower inflation the Fed talked about at the Jackson Hole Summit last year, something called Our Star which is going to lower long -
term rate
of equilibrium interest rates.
It should be evident that for McCabe freedom
of will depends on a delicate balance between competing motives, what he
termed «the
equilibrium indispensable for personic action» (DN 223).
Since I'm sure you're some sort
of Biologist, the
terms «Punctuated
equilibrium» and «Morphogenesis» should be very familiar to you.
For Niebuhr, equal justice, an inexact
term covering a wide range
of ideas, was generally defined as a decent
equilibrium of power.
These remarks about
equilibrium, protectiveness and stability may seem irrelevant to the concept
of personal identity interpreted in
terms of the habitual body, but in fact, they are not.
The process
of separation, transition, and reintegration occurs in
terms of the disruption
of a steady state at or near
equilibrium, which brings matter increasingly far from
equilibrium to a point at which a «decision» is made between alternative possibilities randomly presented by its environment, resulting in its reorganization in novel emergent form.
The cosmological story, too, can be told in
terms of (1) disruption
of a prior
equilibrium, (2) transition toward an unknown outcome, and (3) reintegration into a renewed and transformed
equilibrium — a process made possible by a directional but indeterminate universe continually engendering new order from chaos.
Deloitte Access Economics (DAE) was commissioned by Tabcorp to model public benefits
of cost savings they anticipated from the merger DAE's Regional General
Equilibrium computer general equilibrium model (CGE model) to estimate «broader and long - term economy - wide benefits associated with the merger»
Equilibrium computer general
equilibrium model (CGE model) to estimate «broader and long - term economy - wide benefits associated with the merger»
equilibrium model (CGE model) to estimate «broader and long -
term economy - wide benefits associated with the merger» (para 514)
At the moment, the kelvin is defined in
terms of the temperature at which ice, liquid water and water vapour can coexist in
equilibrium — 273.16 K or 0.01 °C.
There's so much CO2 in the oceans that, unless some kind
of tipping point is triggered, atmospheric emissions shouldn't affect that (very) long
term equilibrium anywhere as much as they affect the atmosphere in the short run.
It is worth adding though, that temperature trends over the next few decades are more likely to be correlated to the TCR, rather than the
equilibrium sensitivity, so if one is interested in the near -
term implications
of this debate, the constraints on TCR are going to be more important.
In
terms of modelling I think there is quite a bit
of variation in time to
equilibrium.
It is similar to handstand in
terms of finding the spot
of equilibrium.
Included in the PowerPoint: Macroeconomic Objectives (AS Level) a) Aggregate Demand (AD) and Aggregate Supply (AS) analysis - the shape and determinants
of AD and AS curves; AD = C+I+G + (X-M)- the distinction between a movement along and a shift in AD and AS - the interaction
of AD and AS and the determination
of the level
of output, prices and employment b) Inflation - the definition
of inflation; degrees
of inflation and the measurement
of inflation; deflation and disinflation - the distinction between money values and real data - the cause
of inflation (cost - push and demand - pull inflation)- the consequences
of inflation c) Balance
of payments - the components
of the balance
of payments accounts (using the IMF / OECD definition): current account; capital and financial account; balancing item - meaning
of balance
of payments
equilibrium and disequilibrium - causes
of balance
of payments disequilibrium in each component
of the accounts - consequences
of balance
of payments disequilibrium on domestic and external economy d) Exchange rates - definitions and measurement
of exchange rates - nominal, real, trade - weighted exchange rates - the determination
of exchange rates - floating, fixed, managed float - the factors underlying changes in exchange rates - the effects
of changing exchange rates on the domestic and external economy using AD, Marshall - Lerner and J curve analysis - depreciation / appreciation - devaluation / revaluation e) The
Terms of Trade - the measurement of the terms of trade - causes of the changes in the terms of trade - the impact of changes in the terms of trade f) Principles of Absolute and comparative advantage - the distinction between absolute and comparative advantage - free trade area, customs union, monetary union, full economic union - trade creation and trade diversion - the benefits of free trade, including the trading possibility curve g) Protectionism - the meaning of protectionism in the context of international trade - different methods of protection and their impact, for example, tariffs, import duties and quotas, export subsidies, embargoes, voluntary export restraints (VERs) and excessive administrative burdens («red tape»)- the arguments in favor of protectionism This PowerPoint is best used when using worksheets and activities to help reinforce the ideas talked a
Terms of Trade - the measurement
of the
terms of trade - causes of the changes in the terms of trade - the impact of changes in the terms of trade f) Principles of Absolute and comparative advantage - the distinction between absolute and comparative advantage - free trade area, customs union, monetary union, full economic union - trade creation and trade diversion - the benefits of free trade, including the trading possibility curve g) Protectionism - the meaning of protectionism in the context of international trade - different methods of protection and their impact, for example, tariffs, import duties and quotas, export subsidies, embargoes, voluntary export restraints (VERs) and excessive administrative burdens («red tape»)- the arguments in favor of protectionism This PowerPoint is best used when using worksheets and activities to help reinforce the ideas talked a
terms of trade - causes
of the changes in the
terms of trade - the impact of changes in the terms of trade f) Principles of Absolute and comparative advantage - the distinction between absolute and comparative advantage - free trade area, customs union, monetary union, full economic union - trade creation and trade diversion - the benefits of free trade, including the trading possibility curve g) Protectionism - the meaning of protectionism in the context of international trade - different methods of protection and their impact, for example, tariffs, import duties and quotas, export subsidies, embargoes, voluntary export restraints (VERs) and excessive administrative burdens («red tape»)- the arguments in favor of protectionism This PowerPoint is best used when using worksheets and activities to help reinforce the ideas talked a
terms of trade - the impact
of changes in the
terms of trade f) Principles of Absolute and comparative advantage - the distinction between absolute and comparative advantage - free trade area, customs union, monetary union, full economic union - trade creation and trade diversion - the benefits of free trade, including the trading possibility curve g) Protectionism - the meaning of protectionism in the context of international trade - different methods of protection and their impact, for example, tariffs, import duties and quotas, export subsidies, embargoes, voluntary export restraints (VERs) and excessive administrative burdens («red tape»)- the arguments in favor of protectionism This PowerPoint is best used when using worksheets and activities to help reinforce the ideas talked a
terms of trade f) Principles
of Absolute and comparative advantage - the distinction between absolute and comparative advantage - free trade area, customs union, monetary union, full economic union - trade creation and trade diversion - the benefits
of free trade, including the trading possibility curve g) Protectionism - the meaning
of protectionism in the context
of international trade - different methods
of protection and their impact, for example, tariffs, import duties and quotas, export subsidies, embargoes, voluntary export restraints (VERs) and excessive administrative burdens («red tape»)- the arguments in favor
of protectionism This PowerPoint is best used when using worksheets and activities to help reinforce the ideas talked about.
Due to its strictness and efficiency in its workouts, it has aided in streamlining and brought about
equilibrium in financial markets thus it's increasingly beneficial in
terms of regulatory themes.
Presuming that asset prices fluctuate around a stable, long -
term equilibrium, extreme deviations serve as lead indicators
of trend reversals.
In order to apply this technique to the Fund's portfolio, the existing securities and the securities to which one might upgrade, would have to come to some sort
of equilibrium in
terms of value offered.
Of course, we can express that
equilibrium in other
terms with equal accuracy.
Shorter
term traders tend to focus on a primacy
of the income account, near -
term changes in market prices, top - down analysis and
equilibrium pricing (i.e., the market price reflects all - encompassing values).
Let's look at what could cause the
equilibrium CAPE to fall back toward, or even below, its long -
term average, causing the current level
of CAPE to tumble.
This piece will have echoes from my recent piece The Bane
of Broken Balance Sheets, where I tried to point out why many assets are trading below
equilibrium levels, but also why it is rational for them to be so valued, because
of the lack
of long -
term financing capacity.
If that were the natural long -
term equilibrium for their situation, they would have been already earning returns in excess
of their cost
of capital prior to the tax cut.
Trend following may also work in times
of persistent excess (contango) However, the run
of contango commodities experienced from 2005 - 2012, seems to have ended and commodities are currently hovering at the line near
equilibrium where short
term disruptions swing the pendulum quickly.
And I claim that long
term this is the
equilibrium price
of that median home.
Of course, if in addition investors don't have complete control over managers - because of weaknesses in corporate governance, for example - and managers have personal incentives to generate returns in the short term (to preserve their jobs or for the public adulation that success brings), the private equilibrium may again generate excessive risk takin
Of course, if in addition investors don't have complete control over managers - because
of weaknesses in corporate governance, for example - and managers have personal incentives to generate returns in the short term (to preserve their jobs or for the public adulation that success brings), the private equilibrium may again generate excessive risk takin
of weaknesses in corporate governance, for example - and managers have personal incentives to generate returns in the short
term (to preserve their jobs or for the public adulation that success brings), the private
equilibrium may again generate excessive risk taking.
Her method
of using a grid overlaid with pigment integrated the values
of «
equilibrium» and «balance» —
terms that laid the foundation
of her formalism inherited from Mondrian.
The 21st Biennale
of Sydney title borrows the quantum mechanical
term «superposition'to link the notions
of equilibrium and engagement.
Now, clouds do not make heat exchange imponderable, especially in long
term trends
of climate analysis, the averages due to what we already know about dynamic
equilibrium outcomes and what we observe in the feedbacks going back even greater then 30 years.
In the unlikely case
of an abrupt fuel burning cessation, we could add aerosols at a decreasing rate, both to smooth the transition, but also because atmospheric CO2 would drop significantly during the first few years after a cessation, as the shorter
term reservoirs have not yet come to
equilibrium and would still be absorbing CO2 at a decent clip for several years.
We climatologists describe this in
terms of the climate sensitivity, the warming that results in
equilibrium from a doubling
of CO2.
In the interview he mentioned the 11 degrees bit and we chatted for a while about how that was a very long
term figure (such a climate sensitivity would require a very long time to come into
equilibrium) and how we gave no odds at all
of that being the case.
It is worth adding though, that temperature trends over the next few decades are more likely to be correlated to the TCR, rather than the
equilibrium sensitivity, so if one is interested in the near -
term implications
of this debate, the constraints on TCR are going to be more important.
Question: before talking about simulating climate CHANGE, how long does the climate science community expect it to take before GCM's can reproduce the real world climate PRIOR to human induced CO2 perturbation in
terms of: — «
equilibrium point», i.e. without artificial flux adjustment to avoid climatic drift, — «natural variability», in
terms of, for instance, the Hurst coefficient at different locations on the planet?
(57k) When I state that the
equilibrium climatic response must balance imposed RF (and feedbacks that occur), I am referring to a global time average RF and global time average response (in
terms of radiative and convective fluxes), on a time scale sufficient to characterize the climatic state (including cycles driven by externally - forced cycles (diurnal, annual) and internal variability.
Maybe the word «
equilibrium» should be omitted from all climate sensitivity estimates, from the shortest
term values (TCR) to the longest and most comprehensive (Earth System), since all the different forms
of sensitivity estimation seem, in my view, to be looking at somewhat different phenomena and should not necessarily yield the same values.
Heat capacity that is «used» over a longer period
of time (penetration
of temperature change through the depths
of the ocean and up to regions
of upwelling) would leave a more persistent residual imbalance, but the effect would only just stall the full change to
equilibrium climate, not change the long
term equilibrium sensitivity.)
Even the conventional notion
of ECS involving the short -
term (Charney) feedbacks doesn't represent an
equilibrium result, which is better represented by «Earth System Sensitivity» estimates.
If the OLR and absorbed UV are the same for heightened CO2 (at
equilibrium), then the only change comes from ε which appears in the denominator
of a
term forcing the whole expression to become smaller with higher CO2.
A simple glance at the buffering power
of the carbonate
equilibrium system and the vast reservoir
of DIC in the oceans would lead one to guess that CO2 acidification would be negligible — but it's the rate
of change, not the long -
term equilibria, that matters in
terms of the real - time effect.
Actually, we're using the
term climate sensitivity in the same sense, the
equilibrium response
of mean temp to the surface radiative forcing associated with CO2 doubling.
Note that «
equilibrium» in this thread — up through response 162 — was in
terms of climate sensitivity, answering the question about where the «extra heat» comes from.