In some recent research, Valerie Belu and I show that
compared to regular elections (defined as elections which occur within 6 months
of the end
of a parliamentary
term), strategically timed opportunistic elections have allowed governing parties to realize an average
vote -
share bonus
of just under 6 percent and seat -
share bonuses
of 12 percent, doubling the probability that the Prime Minister survives in office -LRB-.80 versus.40).
Malcolm Harvey, research fellow at the University
of Aberdeen, says that Ukip coming third in
terms of vote share while only getting next to no seats looks bad when
compared with the SNP, who «are going to win half as many
votes as Ukip and return 56 seats».