Our «research and development» version of the simulation disaggregates
terrestrial carbon emissions and removals by country.
RCP4.5 is based on the MiniCAM Level 2 stabilization scenario reported in Clarke et al. (2007) with additional detail on the non-CO2 and pollution control assumptions documented by Smith and Wigley (2006), and incorporating updated land use modeling and
terrestrial carbon emissions pricing assumptions as reported in Wise et al. (2009a, b).
However, placing a value on
terrestrial carbon emissions led to increased forest cover, while bioenergy use still increased considerably compared to today.
Then they compared two ways to stay within that limit: in one, they taxed
terrestrial carbon emissions and industrial and fossil fuel emissions all at the same rate.
And oddly, steps being taken to decrease emissions from the first two sources could actually increase
terrestrial carbon emissions globally.
Not exact matches
They found surprisingly, that human - induced
emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from ecosystems overwhelmingly surpass the ability of the land to soak up
carbon dioxide
emissions, which makes the
terrestrial biosphere a contributor to climate change.
The team discovered that the human impact on biogenic methane and nitrous oxide
emissions far outweighed the human impact on the
terrestrial uptake of
carbon dioxide, meaning that humans have caused the
terrestrial biosphere to further contribute to warming.
As a result of this annual cycle, together with the continual
emissions from fossil fuel burning (particularly over China, Europe, and the southeast United States),
carbon levels reach a maximum in the Northern Hemisphere in April, just before
terrestrial plants begin to soak up more
carbon.
«Our work shows that the
terrestrial biosphere might have greater potential than previously thought to mitigate climate change by sequestering
carbon emissions from fossil fuels.
In addition, the cost to reduce global
emissions in a world that valued
terrestrial, fossil fuel and industrial sources dropped to half that of the world in which only fossil fuel and industrial entities paid to emit
carbon.
Joos, F., et al., 2001: Global warming feedbacks on
terrestrial carbon uptake under the IPCC
emission scenarios.
Berkeley Lab received these competitive awards from ARPA - E's Rhizosphere Observations Optimizing
Terrestrial Sequestration (ROOTS) program, which seeks to develop crops that take
carbon out of the atmosphere and store it in soil — enabling a 50 percent increase in
carbon deposition depth and accumulation while also reducing nitrous oxide
emissions by 50 percent and increasing water productivity by 25 percent.
Empirical data for the CO2 «airborne fraction», the ratio of observed atmospheric CO2 increase divided by fossil fuel CO2
emissions, show that almost half of the
emissions is being taken up by surface (
terrestrial and ocean)
carbon reservoirs [187], despite a substantial but poorly measured contribution of anthropogenic land use (deforestation and agriculture) to airborne CO2 [179], [216].
The discussion talks explicitly about how diminishing
terrestrial and ocean
carbon sinks over time require reduced CO2
emissions from fossil fuels / land use to achieve stabilization goals at various levels (e.g. 550 ppmv of CO2 in the atmosphere).
The
carbon balance shows that
terrestrial biomass and soil nets an extra 3 Gt C per year, so only 60 - 70 % of
emissions remain, ~ 6 Gt C, as ghg's and ocean acidifying H2CO3.
Prognostic models of
terrestrial carbon cycle and
terrestrial ecosystem processes are central for any consideration of the effects of environmental change and analysis of mitigation strategies; moreover, these demands will become even more significant as countries begin to adopt
carbon emission targets.
The policy also assumes that deployment mechanisms and measurement and monitoring of both fossil fuel and
terrestrial carbon are not barriers to implementation of
emissions mitigation.
Soils are the largest single
terrestrial source of
carbon dioxide (CO2), but these
emissions are highly sensitive to a range of factors associated with climate change and human land use (1).
Secondly, and more importantly, nature could provide humans with a helping hand to reach those lofty CO2 concentration targets through the combination of natural
terrestrial sinks becoming less effective, along with new sources of
carbon emissions appearing as a result of rising global temperatures.
Disturbances such as Superstorm Sandy and Hurricane Katrina cause large impacts to the
terrestrial carbon cycle, forest tree mortality and CO2
emissions from decomposition, in addition to significant economic impacts.
A fifth of global human - caused
carbon emissions today are absorbed by
terrestrial ecosystems; this important
carbon sink operates largely without human intervention, but could be increased through a concerted effort to reduce forest loss and to restore damaged ecosystems, which also co-benefits the conservation of biodiversity.
The region locks up more than 100 billion tons of
carbon — more than 11 years» worth of total greenhouse gas
emissions from human activities; plays an important role in global weather circulation patterns, including delivering rainfall to Central America, the United States, and southern South America; supports perhaps a third of
terrestrial biodiversity; and is home to the bulk of the world's remaining indigenous people still living in traditional ways.
To make a long story short, for
terrestrial carbon models, the latter dominates, despite the wide range of
emission scenarios included.
Thawing permafrost also delivers organic - rich soils to lake bottoms, where decomposition in the absence of oxygen releases additional methane.116 Extensive wildfires also release
carbon that contributes to climate warming.107, 117,118 The capacity of the Yukon River Basin in Alaska and adjacent Canada to store
carbon has been substantially weakened since the 1960s by the combination of warming and thawing of permafrost and by increased wildfire.119 Expansion of tall shrubs and trees into tundra makes the surface darker and rougher, increasing absorption of the sun's energy and further contributing to warming.120 This warming is likely stronger than the potential cooling effects of increased
carbon dioxide uptake associated with tree and shrub expansion.121 The shorter snow - covered seasons in Alaska further increase energy absorption by the land surface, an effect only slightly offset by the reduced energy absorption of highly reflective post-fire snow - covered landscapes.121 This spectrum of changes in Alaskan and other high - latitude
terrestrial ecosystems jeopardizes efforts by society to use ecosystem
carbon management to offset fossil fuel
emissions.94, 95,96
Empirical data for the CO2 «airborne fraction», the ratio of observed atmospheric CO2 increase divided by fossil fuel CO2
emissions, show that almost half of the
emissions is being taken up by surface (
terrestrial and ocean)
carbon reservoirs [187], despite a substantial but poorly measured contribution of anthropogenic land use (deforestation and agriculture) to airborne CO2 [179], [216].
The reason for a reduced CO2 rate of rise was probably not due to a reduction in
emission rates, but it may have reflected
carbon cycle feedbacks that slightly altered the balance between atmospheric CO2 and
terrestrial and oceanic sinks.
Similarly Un is the uptake of
carbon from the atmosphere into the oceans and
terrestrial biosphere, not the uptake of
carbon that was released through natural
emissions.
Because the oceans and
terrestrial biosphere take up only roughly 55 % of these
emissions (Ballantyne et al. 2012), atmospheric
carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are growing at roughly 2 ppm y − 1 (NOAA 2012).
We attribute this increase to the response from the
terrestrial component of the
carbon cycle — a combination of reduction in biospheric uptake of CO2 over pan-tropical regions and an enhancement in biomass burning
emissions over Southeast Asia and Indonesia.
A first
carbon cycle assessment was performed through an international model and analysis workshop examining
terrestrial and oceanic uptake to better quantify the relationship between CO2
emissions and the resulting increase in atmospheric abundance.
Developed by Jain and his graduate students, the model includes complex physical and chemical interactions among
carbon - dioxide
emissions, climate change, and
carbon - dioxide uptake by oceans and
terrestrial ecosystems.
It reiterates — also with «high confidence» — earlier calls for «an integrated approach» that includes «reducing CO2
emissions by reducing deforestation, forest degradation and forest fires; storing
carbon in
terrestrial systems (for example, through afforestation); and providing bioenergy feedstocks.»