But the models do show real skill when
tested against data not used to tune them — and they show large - scale climate patterns that reflect what really happens.
Under the scientific method, hypotheses are only as strong as the degree to which they are
tested against the data and external critiques by which they are examined.
We both agree that this is a prediction that can be
tested against data.
That means: in fairness, at a minimum, you need to give modelers credit for trying to provide true forcasts based on the forcing estimates for aerosols, and those forecasts were
tested against data.
That finding was then
tested against data from two other studies, which echoed that result.
This was
tested against data from space.
If one has the wisdom to question their beliefs by actually
testing them against data, thinking carefully about valuations, and studying the course of market cycles across history, none of these points should be surprising.
Mhyre has been very poorly mentored by climate «scientists» to commit illogical rhetorical attacks rather than upholding true science by exploring ALL models and
testing them against ALL data.
You eyeball patterns with no significance test and no physical basis for guiding the choice of model to
test against the data.
Not exact matches
However, Singleton said he has
tested his model
against historical
data from the crisis year, yielding a 16 percent return
against a 38 percent slump in the S&P index.
While Steel established the soundness of his suggestions in laboratories (and continues to collect
data via free diagnostic
tests offered on his website, procrastinus.com), he has always been his own Patient Zero, inoculating himself
against his bad habits with life hacks like those outlined in his book.
(Theranos has denied many of the accusations levied
against it, though without many specifics, and has said it will publish
data validating its blood
tests soon.)
A control period of two weeks is also sufficient to determine baselines of
data against which to compare the number of events in the
test window.
Rather, the challenge was the inadvertent result of my 2009 insistence on stress
testing our methods of classifying return / risk profiles
against Depression - era
data.
After the 2008 collapse that we had anticipated, the behavior of the markets and the economy became «out of sample» from the standpoint of post-war
data, and I insisted on stress -
testing our methods
against Depression - era
data.
In any event, there's no question or argument that my insistence on stress -
testing against Depression - era
data was a painful shot to the foot in this cycle, and is more painful because, at least to - date, it turned out to be unnecessary in hindsight.
This unfortunately dismisses the central lesson to be drawn from the awkward transition that resulted from my 2009 decision to stress -
test our methods
against Depression - era
data, not to mention the fact that concerns similar to my present ones were rather stunningly vindicated over the completion of prior market cycles.
The «out of sample» behavior of the economy at that time, compared with post-war behavior, prompted my insistence on stress -
testing our methods
against Depression - era
data.
Our difficult experience in the recent half - cycle resulted from my insistence in 2009 on stress -
testing our methods
against Depression - era
data, because the resulting methods of classifying market return / risk profiles picked up that historical regularity.
Instead, criticize my insistence on stress -
testing our methods
against Depression - era
data, following a financial crisis that we fully anticipated.
Likewise, nearly all of our challenges during the advancing half - cycle since 2009 can be traced to my 2009 decision to stress -
test our market return / risk classification methods
against Depression - era
data, which inadvertently led us to overemphasize «overvalued, overbought, overbullish» syndromes that had reliably warned of market losses in prior market cycles across history.
The ensemble methods that came out of our stress -
testing efforts performed better across history than any other approach we had ever
tested (including
against holdout validation
data), but we missed a market rebound in the interim.
The results of statistical
tests that use the Sound Money and Monetary Freedom indicators as independent variables should be checked
against results that use raw inflation
data, instead, or using
tests that strip out price stability
data altogether.
Mays recognizes that Whitehead's method in speculative philosophy is akin to the hypothetico - deductive method of the sciences, where from particular observed
data one frames a theory and then
tests it
against other
data.
By drawing on these two sources of
data, the researchers were able to produce an analysis that is better than that of the two other major quantitative researchers in the field, George Barna and George Gallup; it is the standard
against which other research on teens should be
tested.
Known for developing theories based on experimentation and
data collection rather than abstract thought, Alhazen stressed the need to
test results — especially those considered canon, as he wrote in his Doubts
Against Ptolemy:
«A single Pap
test does not provide good protection
against cancer, but repeat
testing every three years has been shown to effectively reduce cancer rates, and it is the only method for which long term
data are available,» explained co-author Rebecca Perkins, MD, MSc, assistant professor of Obstetrics and Gynecology at BUSM and a gynecologist at BMC.
Those are choices that males make, and you can't just exclude one half of the population from the
data against which you're going to
test your hypothesis.
Brewis and her team then
tested the
data against a framework of three possible pathways that might help explain why people and those they are close to have similar body sizes.
Francine Ducharme at the University of Montreal in Canada and her colleagues analysed
data from 25 randomised trials that
tested inhaled steroids
against a placebo (Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, doi.org/tr9).
Model simulations can always be improved by
testing predictions
against field
data collected from different ecosystems, and Sulman and Phillips are doing just that: investigating how roots influence soil decomposition and protected forms of carbon in forests that vary in the composition of tree and microbial communities.
Following standard practice in the field, the researchers divided their training
data into three sets, sequentially training the algorithm on two of the sets and
testing its performance
against the third.
Based on the results of that
test, Beaty and colleagues developed a predictive model and
tested against brain scan
data collected for earlier studies on creativity.
By
testing their model
against historical
data, they found their production forecasts were more accurate than those of both peak oilers, who are traditionally too pessimistic, and authorities such as the US Energy Information Administration, which is generally far too optimistic.
Once the network learns to perform from training
data, it can then be
tested against unlabeled
data.
«Although
data clearly indicate better immune responses and vaccine efficacy
against both genital warts and cervical dysplasia when vaccination occurs before age 14, this study suggests that HPV vaccination may be effective in reducing abnormal Pap
test results even after sexual debut,» explained co-author Rebecca Perkins, MD, MSc, assistant professor of Obstetrics and Gynecology at Boston University School of Medicine and a gynecologist at Boston Medical Center.
In
data from 2012, before the task force made its recommendation
against the
test, out of 105,812 men who responded to the survey, 30.1 percent discussed both, 30.5 percent discussed neither, 38.5 percent discussed only advantages, and 0.8 percent discussed only disadvantages.
«These results enable us to determine whether potential treatments will be effective
against patients» symptoms by
testing them first in healthy volunteers and defining the best doses based on objective physiological
data before conducting costly clinical trials,» said Jeffrey Lieberman, MD, the Lawrence C. Kolb Professor and Chairman of the Department of Psychiatry at CUMC, and Principal Investigator of this study.
This time, to check my genetic fortitude
against such toxins I will use
data from more than 1.5 million DNA markers I had
tested for this project.
In technical terms this process is known as falsification:
testing a hypothesis
against empirical
data and then dismissing it if it fails to match up with reality.
From at least Lorius et al (1991)-- when we first had reasonable estimates of the greenhouse gases from the ice cores, to an upcoming paper by Schneider von Deimling et al, where they
test a multi-model ensemble (1000 members)
against LGM
data to conclude that models with sensitivities greater than about 4.3 ºC can't match the
data.
There'll be a mass of
data to
test the models
against — a really big signal - to - noise ratio in a few decades time.
Presumably in this case you'd start with a model that's already been
tested against a lot of
data and thus serves as a compact proxy for that information.
In an effort to further exploit the potential of Pexa - Vec to activate the immune system to fight cancer, as seen in McDonald's preclinical
data, SillaJen recently announced a new clinical trial in collaboration with New York - based Regeneron Inc. to
test Pexa - Vec and REGN2810, a PD - 1 checkpoint inhibitor, in combination
against renal cell carcinoma, and recently signed a sponsored research agreement with UCSF to enable joint support of parallel preclinical experiments by McDonald's team.
To
test for differences in growth rates between genotypes, we fit the
data using linear models regressing larval weight
against age and
tested for differences in the interaction term between larval age and genotype using ANCOVA and post hoc comparisons of the slopes of fitted lines using lstrends (HH and lsmeans packages).
Tom appears challenged by the idea of building global climate models based on atmospheric physics and doing years of
testing those models
against actual
data.
This environment, designated the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA), incorporates science - based models, state - of - the - art numerical methods, modern computational science and engineering practices, and uncertainty quantification (UQ) and validation
against data from operating pressurized water reactors (PWRs), single - effect experiments, and integral
tests.
Analysis of this
data revealed a set of candidate biomarkers which were then
tested against over 150 longitudinal samples from an SMA natural history study by the Pediatric Neuromuscular Clinical Research Network.
The rapid growth of genetic
testing and
data - gathering could revolutionize health and medicine if governments work to protect people
against privacy and societal risks.
The quality of the
data, combined with the presence of these comparison «known lens» samples, makes this a natural choice
against which to develop and
test the Space Warps system.