Since 2003, no title contender has received more than 62 % of spread bets and no team has been favored by
more than a touchdown.
If these betting percentages hold up to some extent for the rest of the week, we may very well see the line continue to move towards a field goal
rather than a touchdown.
This means on average, there is more
than a touchdown difference between the expected points scored for each team and what actually happens during the game.
Clearly sharp money has been pounding the over around the market which has moved the total up
more than a touchdown.
His detractors point at the fact that he threw more
interceptions than touchdowns in nine of 15 seasons, the hot - and - cold nature of his game, the lukewarm stretches in Houston and New Orleans, and, despite playing with four Hall of Famers on offense in Oakland, only one Super Bowl.
Blake Bortles ($ 5,400 DraftKings, $ 7,400 FanDuel): The Jags are -9.5 home favorites against the Colts, who are 28th in pass defense DVOA, but Bortles has passed for more
than a touchdown in just one game this year, and the Jags are last in the league with a 49.93 percent pass rate.
Bartkowski has never before thrown fewer interceptions
than touchdown passes in a season, but this year he has passed for 20 TDs, a club record, while being intercepted just 11 times.
They have also, however, averaged just 20.3 points per game against power conference opponents in that span, more
than a touchdown below the national scoring average.
Siemian has never been particularly accurate in the NFL and threw more interceptions
than touchdowns last fall.
In fact, no Super Bowl team has been favored by more
than a touchdown since Super Bowl 42 when the New England Patriots closed -12.5 against the New York Giants.
«We're proud to give out an award that gives these guys the celebration they deserve, because we think there's nothing more
exciting than a touchdown or interception or long pass from a player you weren't expecting it from.»
The Buckeyes were more
than a touchdown favorite in some early odds that bookmakers circulated a few weeks ago, in the event this game ever arose.
Cardinals QB Blaine Gabbert has a career mark of 0 -7-1 ATS in the game after a straight - up win, failing to cover the spread by more
than a touchdown per game.
Oregon is clearly not the same team this year, but they've covered 7 straight as an underdog dating back to 2009, and are catching more
than a touchdown at home in this one.
Joe Namath: completed barely half his throws, had 47 more interceptions
than touchdown passes and never led the NFL, AFL or AFC in passing.
Tom Brady is an MVP front - runner, Andrew Luck has throws for more
interceptions than touchdowns this season, and the Patriots have outscored the Colts 191 - 73 in their past four meetings (including a 45 - 7 blowout in the AFC Championship game).
Brett Hundley ($ 5,100 DraftKings, $ 6,400 FanDuel): It's great that Hundley just put up three touchdowns against the tough Steelers and now faces the Buccaneers, who are 30th in pass defense DVOA — but Hundley has scored more
than a touchdown in just one game and has never passed for more than 245 yards.
Ball in particular has been outstanding in this regard; his plus - 43.9 Adj. POE is
more than a touchdown better than the No. 2 guy, Richardson.
Quarterback Marcus Mariota had a passer rating of 79.3 and threw more interceptions (15)
than touchdowns (13) on the year.
Harrington ended up with more interceptions (85)
than touchdowns (79).
Fourteen games, no spreads of more
than a touchdown.
West Virginia at Miami -2.5, in the Russell Athletic Bowl: I am shocked this number is not more
than a touchdown.
I like the Wildcats at home, and like to wager against teams who won the previous week as an underdog of more
than a touchdown.
His interception numbers have been equivalent at best, and recurrently much worse,
than his touchdowns.
Kansas City needed nothing less
than a touchdown — in all, the perfect setup for Comeback Joe.
Normally I would go contrarian here and say that I would have expected this spread to be 10 points, but I can't see Seattle winning this game by less
than a touchdown.
«That's almost a full point more
than a touchdown!
Trend to know: Russell Wilson is 27 - 5 straight up and 17 -14-1 ATS when favored by more
than a touchdown in his career.
The Steelers should have an easy win in Cleveland, where they are favored by more
than a touchdown, but the Packers and Colts will have a tougher time.
The Jags will win this game in the trenches, but I'm not sure I want to lay more
than a touchdown in the playoffs with Blake Bortles, who threw two TDs and five INTs in the Jags» final two games.
Pretty damn good teams lose OOC game by less
than a touchdown.
That means public perception and overreaction has caused this line to move by more
than a touchdown.
The 31 - year old has thrown more career interceptions (28)
than touchdowns (27), and has gone just 8 - 12 ATS as a starter.
This season Osweiler ranks 25th in QBR and has thrown more interceptions (13)
than touchdowns (12).
Naturally, bettors have been happy to take an undefeated team getting more
than a touchdown, which explains why 64 % of spread bets have been placed on the Seminoles.
The lookahead line from CG Technology had the Patriots favored by less than a field goal back in April, but they are currently favored by more
than a touchdown.
Jared Goff came to Jeff Fisher's L.A. Rams that same season and was thrown into the starting role as expected - and struggled mightily, throwing more interceptions
than touchdowns.
The New York Jets managed to go 4 - 12 after a 5 - 11 season a year ago in one of the few instances where he threw more interceptions
than touchdowns.