It also doesn't necessarilly follow (guessing the next argument someone will raise here...) that global trends should be greater in the
troposphere than at the surface although in the tropics this should be the case (the «hot spot», except if the surface were cooling instead it would be the «cool spot» which sounds much less exciting).
The Sea of Japan has an acidification rate 27 % higher at
depth than at the surface, showing how reduced ventilation from warming could impact the deep ocean.
Existing computer models forecast that the warming trend due to increasing CO2 concentrations will be greater in the troposphere in the
tropics than at the surface.
Since the local temperature is
lower than at the surface, the increased re-radiation purely from the extra CO2 emissivity is not sufficient and so you need to increase the local temperature.
Despite the small amounts of energy involved, I thought that i.e. the Greenland boreholes showed more than 20 degree warmer temperatures at
bedrock than at the surface, which can not be explained by climatic influences.
And because heat can be stored in places
other than at the surface, a lack of surface warming for a decade tells you almost nothing about the underlying long - term warming trends... I judge that there is virtually no merit to suggestions that the «hiatus» poses a serious challenge to the standard model [of human - caused global warming].»
[citation needed] Most climate models used by the IPCC in preparation of their third assessment show a slightly greater warming at the TLT
level than at the surface (0.03 °C / decade difference) for 1979 - 1999 [50][51][52] while the GISS trend is +0.161 °C / decade for 1979 to 2012, [44] the lower troposphere trends calculated from satellite data by UAH and RSS are +0.12 °C / decade [42] and +0.184 °C / decade.
All data sets show that the global mean and tropical troposphere has warmed from 1958 to the present, with the warming trend in the troposphere slightly
greater than at the surface.
«If you look at climate models out for next 100 years, they all have much larger warming in the mid and upper troposphere in the
tropics than at the surface,» he says.
It is likely, however, that there is slightly greater warming in the troposphere
than at the surface, and a higher tropopause, with the latter due also to pronounced cooling in the stratosphere.
It is evident from Figure 2.3 that globally averaged temperature fluctuations associated with El Niño tend to be larger aloft
than at the surface, and this behavior is well - simulated in numerical models.
Since 1979, it is likely that there is slightly greater warming in the troposphere
than at the surface, although uncertainties remain in observed tropospheric warming trends and whether these are greater or less than the surface trend.
Some models show more warming in the troposphere
than at the surface, while a slightly smaller number of simulations show the opposite behavior.
Some but not all of this warming will transfer to the surface, such that we should expect temperature increases from AGW to be larger in the troposphere
than at the surface.