This might be a little higher
than longer term projections, but it shouldn't be hard to get above 6 % per year.
All the data I've seen show the opposite for temperature trends — annual predictions are much less skillful
than long term projections.
Models — mechanism are a better application for models
than long term projections — have a range from negative to positive.
Not exact matches
Apple also gave better
projections for the third quarter
than expected, giving investors more confidence in the company's
long -
term health at a time when its top smartphone rival, Samsung, said it expects demand for its high - end phones to soften.
The coin remains below the short -
term declining trendline and the $ 50 level, and while the
long -
term picture is less constructive
than the other majors after the recent break - out, another leg higher towards the range
projection target at near the $ 58 - $ 60 range is still likely before a significant consolidation period.
In a letter to the Social Security trustees in December 2003, the American Academy of Actuaries, the leading professional organization of actuaries, warned that infinite - horizon
projections «provide little if any useful information about the program's
long -
term finances and indeed are likely to mislead anyone lacking technical expertise in the demographic, economic, and actuarial aspects of the program's finances into believing that the program is in far worse financial shape
than is actually indicated».
«
Long -
term projections of the type presented here are always crude caricatures but I like this study because it does take a more mechanistic approach based on the known habitat requirements of the species rather
than using a more traditional and simplistic thermal envelope model,» he said.
Imagine if, in 2008 and 2009, you saw Royal Dutch Shell price's decline into the $ 30s as the price of oil got cheap and the backdrop of an economic crisis made the stock cheaper
than long -
term projection of oil fundamentals warrant.
By how much would something like that reduce CO2ppm in the atmosphere
long term than it otherwise would have been tracking bau and the FF
projections out to 2050 at present?
The findings do not significantly alter short -
term sea level rise
projections, but they mean that we may need to prepare for larger amounts of
long -
term sea level rise
than previously thought.
It would certainly make an interesting study to determine the fractal dimension of your saw and then «zoom out» to the next level and re-apply your method — it seems to me that this may even provide a better fit to the available data (inc
long term proxies)
than the single level you have already calculated — certainly the change in the
projections would be most interesting!
The researches thus «urge extreme caution in attributing short -
term trends (i.e. over many decades and
longer) in US tropical cyclone losses to anthropogenic climate change,» stating that «anthropogenic climate change signals are unlikely to emerge in US tropical cyclone losses on timescales of less
than a century under the
projections examined here.»
The area of Arctic sea ice was nearly 30 % greater in August
than a year ago, according to recent satellite data, though
projections based on
longer -
term trends suggest the sea ice will continue its decline over time.
You can't really say a
projection is matching
long term observations until you have more
than a hindcast.
I'd say climate
projections have less significance and worth
than short -
term and even
long -
term weather
projections (like the Farmer's Almanac and the like).
You say «It is not logical that a
long -
term projection should have a higher «level of confidence»
than a shorter -
term projection.»
Whether rightly or wrongly, the reality is that such short
term calculations probably weigh more heavily in the decision - making of individual government officials
than any
long -
term projections of net increase of social wealth.
Some recent research, aimed at fine - tuning
long -
term warming
projections by taking this slowdown into account, suggested Earth may be less sensitive to greenhouse gas increases
than previously thought.
For a good treatise on why
long -
term projections are prone to greater uncertainties and errors
than shorter
term projections, I can recommend «The Black Swan», by Nassim Taleb (which I believe Phinniethewoo has already recommended to you).