The expectation of finding something other
than random noise may be a lot lower, but it may still be interesting to look, and if you do find something — well good because something interesting is learned (I hope).
It may be easy to be more accurate
than random noise.
Mann's critics claimed that they could easily obtain a «hockey - stick» shaped leading principal component from data that consisted of nothing more
than random noise if they used Mann's data - centering method.
Mann's critics claimed that they could easily obtain «hockey - stick» shaped leading principal components from data that consisted of nothing more
than random noise if they used Mann's data - centering method.
Over periods of months (and even a year or two), such forecasts are not much better
than random noise.
Not exact matches
I think Lowe's are a bit more clearcut
than usual, and perhaps with other prospects it's a bit more
random noise fluctuation that should be overlooked.
During sleep, infants» memories pass through different stages that lead to vocabulary development and babies learn to first associate words with what they mean rather
than just
random noise.
«False positives are going to be
random noise rather
than systemically biased data.»
If our measure was just capturing
random noise in the data rather
than information about true principal quality, we would not expect it to be related to teacher quality and turnover.
I prefer not to trade on any time frames lower
than 15 minutes, because lower
than that,
random market
noise can distort the true direction of the market.
An important real issue is whether proxy data provides more information
than naive models (such as the mean of the calibrating data for instance) or outperform
random noise of various types.
The little known Hurst standard deviations due to Hurst - Kolmogorov dynamics (a.k.a. climate persistence) are much higher
than Markovian variations and typically TWICE as large as commonly calculated standard deviations of
random «white
noise» in climate models.
Section 3 is probably the low point where the authors use a toy strawman model (Lasso) to «prove» that
random noise will validate within the instrumental period as well or better
than the actual proxies from Mann et al 08.
The physical processes causing the
noise hasn't changed (at least I have no reason to assume it has), however the
random nature of the
noise means that sometimes its effects on the signal are greater
than at other times.
I suspect that under a pink assumption one might find it difficult to show that it is «very likely» that less
than half the warming since 1970 is not due to
random fluctuations on the assumption that all we have is linear trend plus
noise, without having to bother with other natural cyclic trends.
The fact that every year this decade except 2008 has been among the 10 warmest and that 17 of the top 20 hotest years on record have been in the past 20 years (the others were all in the»80s) precludes
random chance at better
than 95 % confidence even with red or pink
noise!