These thermometers can have a different rate of being 4 degrees lower
than the actual temperature.
According to a new study co-authored by Allen and published Thursday in Nature Climate Change, the eventual peak level of warming that the planet will see from greenhouse gas emissions is going up at 2 percent per year, much faster
than actual temperatures are increasing.
OOps, I forgot, deducing temperature from a noisy thing like wind speed is more accurate
than an actual temperature measurement.
This is apparently what happened a few weeks ago when some prominent alarmist modelers decided to scale back their temperature forecasts, probably because the forecasts were continuing to be much higher
than actual temperatures.
However, when the new network versus old network results are examined in total, for the recent summer heat wave in the U.S., the old stations were reporting bogus warming during July that amounted to some +2.1 °F higher
than the actual temperatures.
xi) Distribution of energy within the entire system is more significant for climate (which is limited to the troposphere)
than the actual temperature of the entire Earth.
The «necessity» for plotting temperature anomalies rather
than the actual temperatures is evidenced from the figure below (from Mauritzen et al., see this previous post)
Not exact matches
With
temperatures rising 1.5 F in the 20th century, being off by 0.7 degrees suggests that
actual warming since pre-industrial times might be more
than 50 percent greater
than assumed, around 2.2 F.
«
Actual temperatures could be much larger
than assumed — we simply do not know.»
In a study published in the
actual volume of Nature Communications, geo - and climate researchers at the Alfred - Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar - and Marine Research (AWI) show that, in the course of our planet's history, summertime sea ice was to be found in the central Arctic in periods characterised by higher global
temperatures — but less CO2 —
than today.
For the dwarf planet Pluto, however, the predicted
temperature based on the composition of its atmosphere was much higher
than actual measurements taken by NASA's New Horizons spacecraft in 2015.
«Human - perceived
temperature is rising faster
than actual air
temperature.»
When comparing probiotics and prebiotics in supplement form, probiotics aren't always able to survive the harsh, acidic
temperatures of stomach acid — but prebiotics are, which might make them more helpful to repopulate the body's stores of good bacteria
than an
actual probiotic supplement.
Ok, I'm not that bad, I just don't like it when the RealFeel is 20 degrees colder
than then
actual temperature — like right now.
That would be like a doctor paying more attention to a
temperature reading
than to the patient's
actual physical health.
«But as we get nearer to the ability to add through technology the ability to portray more expression and things such as
temperature it will soon be easier to reach out through games online
than actual interaction between human beings.
In my opinion, it is only by willfully ignoring the misfit in their model at 1994 - 2004 that one would suggest that
actual temperatures in 2005 - 2015 should be predicted to be colder
than 1994 - 2004.
But the intermediate water
temperature (IWT 500 - 900M) seems to have no lag and a lot more volatility in terms of
actual temperature change
than the surface
temperatures.
Other readers here know better
than I, but if we presume that a 3 ˚C per doubling of CO2 is correct for climate sensitivity then the current level of 395 ppm translates into an
actual temperature commitment right now of 1.41 ˚C.
The
actual prevailing view of the paleoclimate research community that emerged during the early 1990s, when long - term proxy data became more widely available and it was possible to synthesize them into estimates of large - scale
temperature changes in past centuries, was that the average
temperature over the Northern Hemisphere varied by significantly less
than 1 degree C in previous centuries (i.e., the variations in past centuries were small compared to the observed 20th century warming).
It looks at though the lagged
temperature knows the future track of the forcing rather
than responding to the
actual forcing at the time.
Three of the four global average
temperatures indeed are decreasing in their trends (although the
actual global mean
temperatures are still warmer
than the previous decades).
In saying Monckton was more right
than wrong, I was referring to the comparison of the IPCC scenarios for
temperature anomalies compared to
actual results over recent years.
One thing I would have liked to see in the paper is a quantitative side - by - side comparison of sea - surface
temperatures and upper ocean heat content; all the paper says is that only «a small amount of cooling is observed at the surface, although much less
than the cooling at depth» though they do report that it is consistent with 2 - yr cooling SST trend — but again, no
actual data analysis of the SST trend is reported.
b. Even the Stefan - Boltzmann
Temperature for Mars, 209K vs Mars»
actual 214K, is more accurate
than your model, despite its fudge factors!!
Re # 12 Eric, from what Bickmore wrote Monckton is closer to being right in saying that the IPCC's own
temperature scenarios are not predictive,
than the IPCC is in getting almost all of their
temperature scenarios close to
actual results.
So, is the problem (with my attempt at extending the GISP2) to modern time, that GISP2 is showing a different
temperature than what the AWS a the summit is producing, perhaps the
actual surface (or should that be the firn)
temperature vs. 2m above?
As far as I am aware,
temperatures of the atmosphere close to the surface, rather
than the
actual surface, are usually measured over land, unless measured remotely by satellites, in which case the
temperature of the material overlaying the Earth's surface is measured, rarely the surface itself.
The
actual temperatures are likely to be even higher
than the «official» forecasts and the «official» daily high readings reported.
If you've ever wondered why you're buried in snow but keep hearing about how we've experienced «officially, the second warmest year on record» (when we're not being told it could be the warmest year on record), know that «officially» relates to the pronouncements of officials, and «official
temperature records» have been «systematically «adjusted» to show the Earth as having warmed much more
than the
actual data justified.»
While it's true BEST reproduced a far more accurate representation of the observations
than any other, and BEST indicated strong signs that other collections were falling further and further behind the
actual temperature trend, we know BEST has some drawbacks: they've presented (to date, that I know of) land only, and that dataset stopped quite some time ago.
Climate science is the only science of which I'm aware (and my graduate training is in atmospheric science) where the observed data are consistently altered to conform to the theory, rather
than the theory revised to conform to
actual temperature observations and data.
I note with interest your calculation using GISTEMP data, but unless you are committing to the belief that the current low
temperatures relative to trend represent an
actual reduction in the trend rather
than the effects of transient features such as ENSO fluctuations, using the
actual temperature value will lead to a poor estimate of the further evolution of the energy imbalance.
The supposed water vapor amplification mechanism will simply accelerate the water cycle slightly and produce little
actual temperature rise, certainly less
than the 1 C rise touted as a no - feedback case.
So the IPCC have formalized the claim that, were it not for Chinese air pollution, the global
temperature rise would be higher
than it has been, justifying more
actual sensitivity to CO2
than we appear to observe.
Why do you think that those proxy
temperatures are of better quality
than actual measurements?
By assuming that the absolute value of the «average» surface
temperature common to both the atmosphere and oceans is 4 - 5 C lower
than the
actual, there would be considerable error wouldn't there?
The high emissivity of CO2 in the IR actually contributes to our radiative equilibrium
temperature being another 20K or more lower
than that but I'll wait until somebody is interested in implementing the computations in CoSy or puts a table, not a graph, of an
actual measured mean spectrum in my lap.
This means that the calculated global
temperature trends are showing a lot more warming
than the
actual global
temperature trends.
It is more likely a result of
temperature being a better measure of ablation
than precipitation of
actual accumulation.
Actually, even though the line may look synchronized, the «Conclusions» section of the linked PDF specifically explains that by selectively discarding the data, the CRU made pre-1950's
temperatures lower
than actual, and post-mid-1990's
temperatures higher
than actual - thus producing an intentional skewing of the trendline.
But, once again, this may not matter in the case of the climate sensitivity since that is dealing with differences in forcings /
temperatures rather
than the
actual values.
Given the fact the the bulk of the energy in the TOA imbalance is getting stored in the ocean, yet
temperature anomalies over the ocean are less
than over the land, for the above stated reasons, the global combined land and ocean (that is, air over the ocean)
temperature anomalies actually tend to greatly understate to a the
actual effects of the anthropogenic caused TOA anomaly.
They have all been shown to be very inaccurate... the
actual observed
temperatures are a lot less
than he predicted would happen.
I also forgot to add that getting some real feel for the
actual energy imbalance going on in the Earth system seems a better approach to talking about climate sensitivity
than focusing on what we've now all recgonized are some very fickle tropospheric
temperatures.
Tom, If you accept that the pauses, previously occurring and the one at the present, are part of long period cycles whose long term average is related to the
actual long term trend of
temperature (rather
than the far steeper slope of rise from just 1980 to 1999), you are admitting that the rise (from whatever cause) has a slope of closer to 0.4 C per century
than the super inflated values of 2C to 6C per century claimed by the models and supporters of CAGW.
I would be more impressed if only the
temperature DIFFERENCE between the eastern and western pacific was input, rather
than actual SST values.
The problem is that we are looking for the average of the
actual global
temperature changes for Earth where some areas warm more rapidly
than others and some areas cool.
The last time you did it, you claimed the
actual value for 1997 was ~.12 cooler
than the
temperature record actually showed.
On the other hand, my model predicts the
actual temperatures for each variance with an accuracy within less
than a tenth of a degree C. of actuality.