This is significantly higher
than the historical average of 2.77 %.
He said the good news is that the economy is in no danger of a recession; however, this year will likely mark nine straight years of subpar growth of less
than the historical average of 3 percent.»
Not exact matches
In April, new - home sales made up about 11.9 percent
of all home sales, which is a little more
than half
of the
historical average of 23.6 percent.»
Of course, in recent years, stock prices have grown much faster
than earnings and dividends, driving the P / E far above its
historical average and the dividend yield (D / P) far below its
historical average.
World growth will remain low on
average but negative in the UK and Europe; price inflation will remain sufficiently subdued for a while longer so as to impose no constraint on monetary expansion; central banks will sustain a regime
of negative real interest rates and rapid monetary expansion; the risk
of a eurozone collapse is off the table for now; finally, stock markets should continue to perform better
than expected, even though the four - year old cyclical bull market is long by
historical standards.
Over the last four quarters, that's come down to about 62 per cent, close to the
historical average, on the back
of business spending on investment and inventories that's already much stronger
than usual and will probably slow.
The favorable market performance associated with many
historical economic expansions is fully accounted for by 1) favorable post-recession valuations, with the S&P 500
averaging less
than 9 times prior peak earnings at the recession low, expanding to just over 11 times peak earnings in the first year
of the bull market, and 2) favorable trend uniformity, which typically emerges almost immediately in the form
of a powerful breadth thrust off
of a bear market low, and is confirmed within a few weeks by much broader trend uniformity.
As
of January 2013, intermediate - term real interest rates are about 4 % less
than their
historical average.
While there's a great deal
of variation across individual market cycles, that's roughly the
historical average for a 5.25 year market cycle: a 135 % gain, a 30 % loss, and a 65 % full - cycle return (about 10 % compounded annually, with the full - cycle return coming in at less
than half
of the bull market gain).
This leaves roughly 1.4 %
of historical long - term returns which can be attributed to past expansion in the Price / Earnings multiple (i.e. over the past 50 years, prices have grown somewhat faster
than the 5.7 %
average rate
of earnings growth).
As I noted last week, the
average historical outcome
of similar combinations has been negative, largely because the deterioration in economic pressures tends to trump technical action even when it has been more favorable
than it is at present.
Assume also that by 2010, the price / peak earnings multiple simply touches its
historical average of 14 (forget that the typical multiple has been less
than 10 when earnings have been at the top
of that peak - to - peak growth channel - let's just assume the multiple touches 14).
This is interesting because it's different
than what we've seen from the majority
of hedgies who as
of late are only 25 % net long, well below the
historical average as hedge funds have been selling equities.
The balance
of opinion on investment receded closer to its
historical average, indicating that plans to increase spending over the next 12 months are somewhat less widespread
than in the previous two surveys (Chart 3).
The ultimate defensive aim
of the team is to concede less goals across an entire season, with
historical averages correlating a «goals conceded» tally
of less
than thirty to achieve Champion's League qualification in the English Premier League and to challenge for the title.
DePreSys's predictions for 10 years on from the date
of the
historical data were on
average only 19 per cent more or less
than the actual numbers (Nature Geoscience, DOI: 10.1038 / ngeo1004).
«The number
of magnitude 3 - plus earthquakes decreased in 2016, but there were still more
than 600 earthquakes, far above the
historical average,» said Pollyea, who specializes in groundwater modeling and simulation.
August was 0.9 °F warmer
than the 20th century
average for the CONUS and ranked in the warmest third
of the
historical record.
Nearly all
of Eurasia, Africa, and the remainder
of South America were much warmer
than average, or within the top 10 percent
of their
historical records for their regions, according to the Land & Ocean Temperature Percentiles map above.
Since then, Ngoring Lake, the largest
of the lakes in the Reserve, has seen its water levels rising and is now larger
than its
historical average.
From this perspective, grains probably never accounted for more
than 1 - 3 %
of our
historical calorie intake... and as you know from one
of my recent articles, currently our modern processed diet that the
average person eats consists
of 67 %
of total calories from grains such as corn, soy, and wheat and their derivatives... now THAT»S a shocking revelation in why our entire food supply is backwards, and how that affects your waistline!
This estimate is conservative in terms
of considering today's labor market, as
average unemployment duration today is much higher
than its
historical average.
According to Brian, not only is the stock's forward P / E ratio
of 15.0 much lower
than its
historical norm
of 19.1, but its current dividend yield
of 2 % is nearly double the company's 22 - year
average yield
of 1.2 %.
If the interest rates on your other debt - car or student loan or mortgage - is higher
than what you could earn by saving or investing (consider that the
average annual inflation - adjusted
historical return
of the U.S. stock market is just over 6 %), you'd be wise to pay that down first too.
To overcome this discrepancy, the author extends the
average relation
of the NTM P / E being lower
than the TTM P / E by 24 %, as observed from 1976 to 2003, to the entire 140 - year
historical period.
It's important to note that if you are retired during a period when the stock market returns less
than its
historical average, and you withdraw 8 % a year from your retirement savings as Ramsey recommends, you can deplete your retirement funds to the point that it deals a severe blow to your standard
of living.
As I pointed out with the
historical figures tallied by the Bank
Of Canada, the
average mortgage rate is usually higher
than the prime rate.
Since 1996, the US CAPE ratio has been above its long - term simple
average (16.6) 96 %
of the time, and above 24, roughly one standard deviation above its
historical norm, more
than two - thirds
of the time.
For instance, the blue dot on the value factor scatterplot suggests that prior to March 2016 the valuation level
of 0.14 — meaning the value portfolio was 14 % as expensive as the growth portfolio measured by price - to - book ratio, and lower
than the
historical norm
of 21 % relative valuation — would have delivered an
average annualized alpha
of 8.1 % over the next five years.
With 7 % upside on top
of a yield that's higher
than its recent
historical average, this dividend growth stock deserves a good look here.
The projected 10 - year rate
of return (calculated using the current price and the projected price in 10 years based on the sustainable growth rate, projected book value per share and earnings per share, and
historical average price - earnings ratio) is greater
than or equal to 15 %
Professor Robert Shiller's P / E10, which uses the
average of ten years
of earnings, is a better predictor
of Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates
than Tobin's Q.
That puts the current rates at less
than 50 %
of their
historical average.
This leaves roughly 1.4 %
of historical long - term returns which can be attributed to past expansion in the Price / Earnings multiple (i.e. over the past 50 years, prices have grown somewhat faster
than the 5.7 %
average rate
of earnings growth).
You can estimate how much you'll have saved up by using a retirement calculator; it's best to assume no more
than a 7 %
average annual return, which is the
historical average of the stock market (including inflation).
Both are less
than half the rate's
historical average of 4.7 percent.
A quick way to tell if a stock is worthy
of further research is to determine if it is trading for less
than its
historical average price - to - earnings ratio.
A thirty year mortgage is a great thing at these rates (I wish I could get a 50 year mortgage), especially if inflation returns to its
historical averages of 3 — 4 % or higher, and if you can invest the difference between the monthly payments for the 15 and 30 year mortgage and earn more
than 3.88 % on that money you will be much better off
than if you'd gotten a 15 year mortgage.
Since the current payout ratios are slightly higher
than the company's
historical average, investors should probably expect annual dividend growth that's slightly less
than EPS and FCF growth, along the lines
of 6 % to 8 % a year.
Investment grade corporate bonds possess an
average yield spread
of 2.2 % to Treasuries, which is above the
historical average of 1.5 % and notably greater
than MBS spreads.
But this is in a period that the Bureau has predicted is likely, based on statistical analysis
of historical data and current sea surface conditions, to be warmer
than the
historical average (see here.
«
Of the 17 responses, all suggest that the extent will remain lower than the historical average (i.e., mean 1979 — 2000 September values) of 7.0 million square kilometer
Of the 17 responses, all suggest that the extent will remain lower
than the
historical average (i.e., mean 1979 — 2000 September values)
of 7.0 million square kilometer
of 7.0 million square kilometers.
Thus if one plots all the minima
of the different
historical measurements, that gives a better impression
of the real «background» CO2 level
than the
averages: see The same for ocean data and coastal data: all are around the ice core level.
Under a high emissions scenario, Blaine County can expect a 40 % decline in the number
of days at or below freezing by late century, falling from a
historical annual
average of more
than 200 days to about 120.
Uncertainties
of estimated trends in global - and regional -
average sea - surface temperature due to bias adjustments since the Second World War are found to be larger
than uncertainties arising from the choice
of analysis technique, indicating that this is an important source
of uncertainty in analyses
of historical sea - surface temperatures.
Today, despite being the
historical timber - basket
of the U.S., Oregon now credits high - tech manufacturing with producing 10 per cent
of its economic output — more
than eight times the national
average.
org, US reductions need to be much greater
than average reduction levels required
of the entire world as a matter
of equity because the United States emissions are among the world's highest in terms
of per capita and
historical emissions and there is precious little atmospheric space remaining for additional ghg emissions if the world is serious about avoiding dangerous climate change.
However, this does represent a lower rate
of increase
than the
historical average — China's
average annual growth rate for coal consumption from 2000 to 2013 was 8.8 percent.
[2] The
Historical simulations have an
average temperature anomaly
of 0.84 °C for 1996 — 2005 relative to 1850, whereas HadCRUT4v4 shows an increase
of 0.73 °C from 1850 — 1859 to 1996 — 2005, and Figure 7
of Miller et al. 2014 shows consistently greater warming for GISS - E2 - R
than per GISTEMP since 2000.
More
than half
of respondents say lending is just as stringent as a year ago, while 23 percent say it is more stringent; 20 percent say it is less stringent but not near
historical averages.