Not exact matches
Over the last four quarters, that's come down to about 62 per cent, close to the
historical average, on the back of business spending on investment and inventories that's already much stronger
than usual and will probably slow.
The favorable market performance associated with many
historical economic expansions is fully accounted for by 1) favorable post-recession valuations, with the S&P 500
averaging less
than 9 times prior peak earnings at the recession low, expanding to just
over 11 times peak earnings in the first year of the bull market, and 2) favorable trend uniformity, which typically emerges almost immediately in the form of a powerful breadth thrust off of a bear market low, and is confirmed within a few weeks by much broader trend uniformity.
This leaves roughly 1.4 % of
historical long - term returns which can be attributed to past expansion in the Price / Earnings multiple (i.e.
over the past 50 years, prices have grown somewhat faster
than the 5.7 %
average rate of earnings growth).
The balance of opinion on investment receded closer to its
historical average, indicating that plans to increase spending
over the next 12 months are somewhat less widespread
than in the previous two surveys (Chart 3).
If the interest rates on your other debt - car or student loan or mortgage - is higher
than what you could earn by saving or investing (consider that the
average annual inflation - adjusted
historical return of the U.S. stock market is just
over 6 %), you'd be wise to pay that down first too.
For instance, the blue dot on the value factor scatterplot suggests that prior to March 2016 the valuation level of 0.14 — meaning the value portfolio was 14 % as expensive as the growth portfolio measured by price - to - book ratio, and lower
than the
historical norm of 21 % relative valuation — would have delivered an
average annualized alpha of 8.1 %
over the next five years.
Current S&P 500 dividend yield is about 1.9 %, which is less
than the typical 3 %
historical average over the last century.
This leaves roughly 1.4 % of
historical long - term returns which can be attributed to past expansion in the Price / Earnings multiple (i.e.
over the past 50 years, prices have grown somewhat faster
than the 5.7 %
average rate of earnings growth).