Tamino has also previously performed a multiple regression of temperature on various short - term effects, including the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), and confirms that TLT data are much more sensitive to ENSO
than surface temperature data (Figure 2).
And the TLT data are more sensitive to ENSO events
than surface temperature data (Figure 1).
The records are short, and subject to greater uncertainties
than the surface temperature data.»
I don't prefer one over the other as an intrinsic metric (they provide two different pieces of information), but I find the ocean heat content data to be a much less mature data set
than the surface temperature data set.
Not exact matches
It comes down to what every scientist knows too well — analyzing
data collected by different methods, and at different times, is a tricky business because some methods of collecting ocean
surface temperatures are more accurate
than others.
Spencer analyzed 90 climate models against
surface temperature and satellite
temperature data, and found that more
than 95 percent of the models «have over-forecast the warming trend since 1979, whether we use their own
surface temperature dataset (HadCRUT4), or our satellite dataset of lower tropospheric
temperatures (UAH).»
One of the challenges has been accurately determining the difference between sea
surface temperatures at the poles and the equator during the Eocene, with models predicting greater differences
than data suggested.
Long - term
data from a wind farm at San Gorgonio, California, confirmed his earlier model predictions:
surface temperatures behind the wind turbines were higher
than in front during the night, but as much as 4 °C lower by day.
The
data showed a string of monstrous, superhot blobs, each with a
temperature of more
than 17,000 degrees Fahrenheit (9,400 degrees Celsius)-- almost twice as hot as the
surface of the sun.
Nathaniel Johnson and Shang - Ping Xie at the University of Hawaii studied satellite and rain - gauge
data from the last 30 years and found that sea
surface temperatures in the tropics now need to be about 0.3 °C higher
than they did in 1980 before the air above rises and produces rain (Nature Geoscience, DOI: 10.1038 / ngeo1008).
I am very cuious if you found a variance between Upper Air and
Surface warming... I calculated total amospheric refraction temperatures, ie from data extracted by analyzing optical effects, some of my results show an impressive yearly warming trend, much stronger than the surface bas
Surface warming... I calculated total amospheric refraction
temperatures, ie from
data extracted by analyzing optical effects, some of my results show an impressive yearly warming trend, much stronger
than the
surface bas
surface based one.
Like Sirius, however, Altair radiates much more in ultraviolet wavelengths
than Sol, and, not surprisingly, the European Space Agency has used ultraviolet spectral flux distribution
data to determine stellar effective
temperatures and
surface gravities, including those of Altair.
Like Sirius, however, Vega radiates much more in ultraviolet wavelengths
than Sol, and, not surprisingly, the European Space Agency has used ultraviolet spectral flux distribution
data to determine stellar effective
temperatures and
surface gravities, including those of Vega.
Analysing
surface temperature data for 1979 - 2015, they link a warm Arctic during March to colder -
than - average
temperatures over northern regions of North America and dry conditions in central southern areas between March and May.
The
data showed a string of monstrous, superhot blobs, each with a
temperature of more
than 17,000 degrees Fahrenheit — almost twice as hot as the
surface of the sun.
Depending on the level of service to which an organisation subscribes, it will provide regular pdf updates, sent to a phone if required, showing forecast
data for RST (road
surface temperature — much more relevant
than air
temperature when deciding when to grit), rainfall, falling snow and road state.
There are two very basic answers: First, looking at changes in
data gets rid of biases at individual stations that don't change in time (such as station location), and second, for
surface temperatures at least, the correlation scale for anomalies is much larger (100's km)
than for absolute
temperatures.
More
than 95 % of the 5 yr running mean of the
surface temperature change since 1850 can be replicated by an integration of the sunspot
data (as a proxy for ocean heat content), departing from the average value over the period of the sunspot record (~ 40SSN), plus the superimposition of a ~ 60 yr sinusoid representing the observed oceanic oscillations.
Large variability reduces the number of new records — which is why the satellite series of global mean
temperature have fewer expected records
than the
surface data, despite showing practically the same global warming trend: they have more short - term variability.
The difference of adding 1998 is greater here
than with the
surface data, because the response of tropospheric
temperature to ENSO is twice as large as that of
surface temperatures to ENSO (in other words, the 1998 anomaly is much larger in the satellite
data).
I am very cuious if you found a variance between Upper Air and
Surface warming... I calculated total amospheric refraction temperatures, ie from data extracted by analyzing optical effects, some of my results show an impressive yearly warming trend, much stronger than the surface bas
Surface warming... I calculated total amospheric refraction
temperatures, ie from
data extracted by analyzing optical effects, some of my results show an impressive yearly warming trend, much stronger
than the
surface bas
surface based one.
One thing I would have liked to see in the paper is a quantitative side - by - side comparison of sea -
surface temperatures and upper ocean heat content; all the paper says is that only «a small amount of cooling is observed at the
surface, although much less
than the cooling at depth» though they do report that it is consistent with 2 - yr cooling SST trend — but again, no actual
data analysis of the SST trend is reported.
If we had better sea level rise
data for the whole period, we might see that the heat storage curve into the ocean had a shape that better matched the simple function approximation
than the land
surface data does, or we might have better information on internal climate modes that confused or delayed the
temperature response.
The 2005 Jan - Sep land
data (which is adjusted for urban biases) is higher
than the previously warmest year (0.76 °C compared to the 1998 anomaly of 0.75 °C for the same months, and a 0.71 °C anomaly for the whole year), while the land - ocean
temperature index (which includes sea
surface temperature data) is trailing slightly behind (0.58 °C compared to 0.60 °C Jan - Sep, 0.56 °C for the whole of 1998).
«Another recent paper used a different NOAA ocean
surface temperature data set to find that since 2003 the global average ocean
surface temperature has been rising at a rate that is an order of magnitude smaller
than the rate of increase reported in Karl's paper.»
«In regards to sea
surface temperature, scientists have shown that across the board,
data collected from buoys are cooler
than ship - based
data,» one of the study's co-authors wrote, adding, «Scientists have developed a method to correct the difference between ship and buoy measurements, and we are using this in our trend analysis.»
The evolving radiation balance of the earth as seen in the satellite
data shows that the energy added by the CO2 and feedbacks is more
than sufficient to explain the observed warming
surface temperatures.
The basic assumption behind the Cowtan and Way (2013) paper appears to be, because the HADCRUT4
data doesn't capture the Arctic Ocean (there are no
temperature measurements there other
than sea
surface temperatures when sea ice melts seasonally), the warming in the Arctic is underreported.
Proxy
data covering the past 9000 years from Point Barrow revealed annual sea ice covering the eastern Chukchi Sea varied from only 5.5 to 9 months, and summer sea
surface temperatures ranged from 3 to 7.5 °C, much higher
than today (McKay 2008).
European researchers, under the Copernicus Climate Service, using a slightly different method of analysing the
surface temperature data than Nasa, also found that February 2016 was by far the warmest month on record.
To conduct its analysis, GISS uses publicly available
data from three sources: weather
data from more
than a thousand meteorological stations around the world; satellite observations of sea
surface temperature; and Antarctic research station measurements.
Bindidon It's not surprising that you give the fully discredited (because of
data manipulations and the urban heat island effects) GISS
Surface Temperature to support your fallacious point about it being hotter now
than in the»30s.
If we wanted accurate climate information, we would be better off getting our
data out of old newspaper and scientific articles,
than depending on GISS and other manipulated
surface temperature records.
These facts were enough for an NAS panel, including Christy, to publish a report Reconciling Observations of Global
Temperature Change which concluded that «Despite differences in temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's surface is undoubtedly real, and surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than average for the past 100 y
Temperature Change which concluded that «Despite differences in
temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's surface is undoubtedly real, and surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than average for the past 100 y
temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's
surface is undoubtedly real, and
surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater
than average for the past 100 years»
«Examination of a 140 - year record of observed and modeled
temperature data revealed strong correlation between the two indices until the 1930s, after which the
surface temperature trend increased much more
than that of ngLOD.
For more
than 3 1/2 years, I've been presenting how sea
surface temperature data indicates that ENSO is the primary cause of the warming of the past 3 decades.
The
temperature analysis produced at GISS is compiled from weather
data from more
than 1,000 meteorological stations around the world, satellite observations of sea -
surface temperature, and Antarctic research station measurements.
Dessler (2011) used observational
data (such as
surface temperature measurements and ARGO ocean
temperature) to estimate and corroborate these values, and found that the heating of the climate system through ocean heat transport was 20 times larger
than TOA energy flux changes due to cloud cover over the period in question.
C. warmer
than it was with respect to the start of the industrial revolution, I believe that it would be necessary to use actual average global land - ocean
surface temperature data (which would be imperfectly known that far back).
The Goddard Institute of Space Science (GISS) global
surface temperature anomaly time series is based on observations from publicly available observational
data sets rather
than models.
Based on the Cohen et al paper it's likely that leaving out the most volatile
data series would in the present case result in a time series where warming continues with less plateauing
than we see in the existing
data on global average
surface temperature.
The original Escalator was based on the Berkeley Earth
Surface Temperature (BEST) data, which incorporates more temperature station data than any other data set, but is limited to land - only data; additionally the record terminates in
Temperature (BEST)
data, which incorporates more
temperature station data than any other data set, but is limited to land - only data; additionally the record terminates in
temperature station
data than any other
data set, but is limited to land - only
data; additionally the record terminates in early 2010.
In other words, the differences between models and
data are likely greater
than shown in all of the examples in this post where the modeled sea
surface temperatures are warmer
than observed... and vice versa when the models are too cool.
The National Climatic
Data Center (NCDC), which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has maintained global average monthly and annual records of combined land and ocean
surface temperatures for more
than 130 years.
The El Niño peak in 1998 and La Niña trough in 2008 in particular are much more evident in the satellite
data sets
than in the
surface temperature record.
The problem is that (like the
surface data) at some latitudes the tropospheric
temperatures have risen more
than at others.
According to
data from the Ocean
Surface Topography Mission / Jason 2 satellite, ocean
temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are significantly warmer
than usual due to slowing trade winds.
It is hard to say with the
surface data we have, but it appears that Arctic Ocean cyclones are still warmer
than the High pressure over the gyre, of interest is when these
temperatures will be equal, then the switch should happen when cyclones cool
surface air instead.
Looking at a decade or two is cherry - picking the
data, they say, because
surface temperatures are still hotter
than ever.
Are there are bigger problems with
surface temperature data than krigging in the Arctic can solve.