Evaporating water has a different effect
than water vapor in the atmosphere (which can also move around).
That would suggest CO2 is far from «weak», however, I would suggest that it is no more important
than water vapor in the role it plays in past ice cycles (look at the numbers!).
Not exact matches
In a clean cloud, the same spike of high water vapor could last a long time with only a few fortunate droplets in the vapor's vicinity to munch plentifully and grow much bigger than their neighbor
In a clean cloud, the same spike of high
water vapor could last a long time with only a few fortunate droplets
in the vapor's vicinity to munch plentifully and grow much bigger than their neighbor
in the
vapor's vicinity to munch plentifully and grow much bigger
than their neighbors.
«There likely will be little traces of the hydrocarbons
in the
water that is condensed to form rain, but it will likely make up less
than normal pollution does,» says research meteorologist Frank Marks, director of hurricane research at NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
in Miami, Fla. «The amount of
water vapor evaporated that might contain hydrocarbons related to the spill will be very, very small.»
While the ECS factors
in such «fast» feedback effects as changes
in water vapor —
water itself is a greenhouse gas, and saturates warm air better
than cold — they argued that slow feedbacks, such as changes
in ice sheets and vegetation, should also be considered.
What goes up, must come down and, more and more, that
water vapor is coming down
in extreme precipitation events — defined
in North America as more
than 100 millimeters of rainfall (or the equivalent
in snow or freezing rain) falling
in 24 hours — according to new research also published February 17
in Nature that examines such events
in the Northern Hemisphere.
That's because, as determined
in subsequent experiments, the addition of
water vapor served to transform gold nanoparticles into channel diggers, rather
than the expected wire makers.
To heat that boiler, the damp, crumbly brown coal known as lignite — which is even more polluting
than the harder black anthracite variety — burns
in the presence of pure oxygen, a process known as oxyfuel, releasing as waste both
water vapor and that more notorious greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO2).
And more
water vapor worldwide is related to the atmosphere being warmer — we have about 7 percent more
water vapor in the atmosphere now
than we did
in the 1950s, which is directly linked to the increase
in heavy precipitation events.
I guess I am surprised that with better understanding of the importance of
water vapor feedback, sulfate aerosols, black carbon aerosols, more rapid
than expected declines
in sea ice and attendant decreases
in albedo, effects of the deposition of soot and dust on snow and ice decreasing albedo, and a recognition of the importance of GHGs that were probably not considered 30 years ago, that the sensitivity has changed so little over time.
With JWST, a few hours of integration time will be enough to detect Earth - like levels of
water vapor, molecular oxygen, carbon dioxide and other generic biosignatures on planets orbiting a white dwarf; beyond that, observing the same planet for up to 1.7 days will be enough to detect the two CFCs
in concentrations of 750 parts per trillion, or 10 times greater
than on Earth.
The eruptions, they found, were intense enough that gases would have been spewed out of the surface faster
than they could escape into space, forming a temporary atmosphere relatively rich
in water vapor, that ensconced the Moon for about 70 million years.
The
water vapor just makes the Planck response less effective, so you need a higher temperature change for the same perturbation
than in a no feedback case.
Usually contains platinum, palladium and / or rhodium, which acts as a catalyst
in a chemical reaction that converts unburned hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and oxides of nitrogen into
water vapor, carbon dioxide and other gases that are less toxic
than untreated exhaust fumes
So I would expect stronger
water vapor effects
in summer
than winter, and stronger
in daytime
than at night, though clearly not by much.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are increasing its concentration
in the atmosphere, raising temperatures globally; the second GHG,
water vapor, exists
in equilibrium with
water / ice, would precipitate out if not for the CO2, so acts as a feedback; since the oceans cover so much of the planet,
water is a large positive feedback; melting snow and ice as the atmosphere warms decreases albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming
than the global average; decreasing the temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are increasing
in amplitude and slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its driving gradient decreases; the larger slower meanders increase the amplitude and duration of blocking highs, increasing drought and extreme temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
So the rising trend
in the lower curve is going to represent much more
water vapor added to the atmosphere
than the declining top curve represents as leaving it.
Specific humidity content of the air has increased, as expected as part of the conventional
water vapor feedback, but
in fact relative humidity also increased between 1950 and 1990, indicating a stronger
water vapor feedback
than given by the conventional assumption of fixed relative humidity.
I guess I am surprised that with better understanding of the importance of
water vapor feedback, sulfate aerosols, black carbon aerosols, more rapid
than expected declines
in sea ice and attendant decreases
in albedo, effects of the deposition of soot and dust on snow and ice decreasing albedo, and a recognition of the importance of GHGs that were probably not considered 30 years ago, that the sensitivity has changed so little over time.
There is 4 % more
water vapor in the atmosphere
than 50 years ago.
There's also a number of interesting applications
in the evolution of Earth's atmosphere that branch off from the runaway greenhouse physics, for example how fast a magma - ocean covered early Earth ends up cooling — you can't lose heat to space of more
than about 310 W / m2 or so for an Earth - sized planet with an efficient
water vapor feedback, so it takes much longer for an atmosphere - cloaked Earth to cool off from impact events
than a body just radiating at sigmaT ^ 4.
A larger mystery
than either missing carbon or the influence of clouds /
water vapor on climate change models is why the physical and life science community and the (
in theory) science - based climate change advocates have not taken the time to adequately consult the evidence or experts (albeit exceptions certainly do exist) on communication about environmental issues, risk, or environmental and health literacy.
CO2,
in contrast, strongly absorbs wavelengths > 13 times longer
than O2 does, as well as other bands around 2 - 3 and 4 - 5 microns, while
water vapor absorbs strongly from around 5 - 8 microns.
True, CO2 levels are higher
than in most of our past but
water vapor, not CO2, is the major «greenhouse» driver.
In the case of a failure of the surface to warm due to a La Nina - like process, the OLR reduction (and hence the energy gain) will be lessened by the reduction in water vapor and other feedback moieties, but it will still be greater than occurs with a warmed surfac
In the case of a failure of the surface to warm due to a La Nina - like process, the OLR reduction (and hence the energy gain) will be lessened by the reduction
in water vapor and other feedback moieties, but it will still be greater than occurs with a warmed surfac
in water vapor and other feedback moieties, but it will still be greater
than occurs with a warmed surface.
In a pressure - cooker, the water vapor stays inside, and thus allows liquid water to get arbitrarily hot without boiling — until the whole thing explodes, which is why there is that little thinghy on top which in fact limits the pressure and instead allows the water to boil at a higher temperature than norma
In a pressure - cooker, the
water vapor stays inside, and thus allows liquid
water to get arbitrarily hot without boiling — until the whole thing explodes, which is why there is that little thinghy on top which
in fact limits the pressure and instead allows the water to boil at a higher temperature than norma
in fact limits the pressure and instead allows the
water to boil at a higher temperature
than normal.
Now adding back the CO2 will have a larger magnitude of forcing
than the initial removal because there is much less
water vapor, and the
water vapor feedback
in terms of W / m2 will be smaller
in magnitude because of the overlap with CO2.
There is no proof that increasing GHGs,
in the presence of so much
water vapor, without a corresponding increase
in the sun's energy
in these adsorptive wavebands for these gases, will actually increase warming to any significant degree, i.e. more
than a couple of degrees.
Warming must occur below the tropopause to increase the net LW flux out of the tropopause to balance the tropopause - level forcing; there is some feedback at that point as the stratosphere is «forced» by the fraction of that increase which it absorbs, and a fraction of that is transfered back to the tropopause level — for an optically thick stratosphere that could be significant, but I think it may be minor for the Earth as it is (while CO2 optical thickness of the stratosphere alone is large near the center of the band, most of the wavelengths
in which the stratosphere is not transparent have a more moderate optical thickness on the order of 1 (mainly from stratospheric
water vapor; stratospheric ozone makes a contribution over a narrow wavelength band, reaching somewhat larger optical thickness
than stratospheric
water vapor)(
in the limit of an optically thin stratosphere at most wavelengths where the stratosphere is not transparent, changes
in the net flux out of the stratosphere caused by stratospheric warming or cooling will tend to be evenly split between upward at TOA and downward at the tropopause; with greater optically thickness over a larger fraction of optically - significant wavelengths, the distribution of warming or cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a change is distributed, and it would even be possible for stratospheric adjustment to have opposite effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux at TOA).
If a doubling of CO2 resulted
in a temperature increase of approximately 1 K before any non-Planck feedbacks (before
water vapor, etc.), then assuming the same climate sensitivity to the total GHE, removing the whole GHE would result
in about a (setting the TOA / tropopause distinction aside, as it is relatively small relative to the 155 W / m2 value) 155/3.7 * 1 K ~ = 42 K. Which is a bit more
than 32 or 33 K, though I'm not surprised by the difference.
If CO2
in the Anthropocene atmosphere contributes to re-vegetating currently arid areas as it did post-LGM, we should expect an even greater warming feedback from CO2
than is assumed from
water vapor and albedo feedbacks, due to decreased global dust - induced albedo and increased
water vapor from transpiration over increased vegetated area.
(CO2 band is near the peak wavelength,
water vapor bands significant
in stratosphere for wavelengths longer
than ~ 25 microns and between ~ 5.5 and 7 microns, and ozone between ~ 9.5 and 10 microns, and CH4 and N2O between ~ 7.5 and 8 microns — Hartmann p. 44 and 48, rough est. from graphs; signficant stratospheric transparency remains
in several of those bands except near the peak of the CO2 band, but especially
water vapor from 25 to 50 microns.)
Is less poleward transport of heat by the Gulf Stream as the AMOC weakens a positive feedback for global warming, since that energy will escape more slowly
in the humid (higher
water vapor GHG effect) tropics
than near the poles?
But
in the end, all of the
water vapor adds somewhat less
than 1.8 C to the original 1.2 C for a CO2 doubling
in the fast feedbacks.
Even if you take the convective flux as 24 +78 W m - 2 (including latent) you need better
than a 2:1 change
in convection, and some way to explain away the radiative effect of moving more
water vapor up.
First is that warmer air can hold more
water vapor, leading to torrential rains
in coastal regions that last longer
than usual.
Even
in cases where it is cold or where SSTs [sea surface temperatures] are cold, or where
water vapor is low, they are still warmer / moister
than they would have been without the global warming.
Warmer air holds more
water vapor than colder air, so the amount of
water vapor in the lower atmosphere increases as it is warmed by the greenhouse effect.
In 1896 Swedish chemist and Nobel laureate Svante Arrhenius used Langley's bolometer to measure the heat from the Moon at various altitudes above the horizon in order to estimate the dependence of atmospheric heat trapping on amount of water vapor and CO2 along the line of sight to the Moon, a much longer path near the horizon than at 45 degree
In 1896 Swedish chemist and Nobel laureate Svante Arrhenius used Langley's bolometer to measure the heat from the Moon at various altitudes above the horizon
in order to estimate the dependence of atmospheric heat trapping on amount of water vapor and CO2 along the line of sight to the Moon, a much longer path near the horizon than at 45 degree
in order to estimate the dependence of atmospheric heat trapping on amount of
water vapor and CO2 along the line of sight to the Moon, a much longer path near the horizon
than at 45 degrees.
I believe if you just use a CLOSED cell foam (much better
water /
vapor / air / thermal barrier
than either open cell or cellulose) with almost no thermal bridging
in the wall then it kind of solves lots of problems all at once...
But the boiling point of heavy
water, as well as heavy oxygen
water (H2O ^ 18 rather
than H2O ^ 16) are higher
than that of normal
water, and are found
in water vapor in the atmosphere at lower concentrations when the global temperature is low.
Because the new precise observations agree with existing assessments of
water vapor's impact, researchers are more confident
than ever
in model predictions that Earth's leading greenhouse gas will contribute to a temperature rise of a few degrees by the end of the century.
You appear to have your knickers all twisted about the generally accepted greenhouse theory, which states that GH gases (primarily
water vapor, plus some smaller ones, such as CO2) keep our planet warmer
than it would otherwise be if they were not
in our atmosphere.
One would get some
water vapor in the atmosphere, but liquid
water on the surface would be rare - probably more due to volcanic activity rather
than sunlight warming surface.
In addition, it now appears that
water vapor feedback, while still positive and robust, is likely to be weaker
than previously estimated by the models.
By that measure, total column CO2 is ~ 3 meters or ~ 3 atm m. Engineering heat transfer calculations often use standard pressure times path length to calculate emissivities of CO2 and
water vapor in furnaces from tables or graphs rather
than having to do full RT calculations.
Jim D December 21, 2012 at 1:08 am lied:» the tropics should account for larger fraction
than now, especially the ocean areas, and this will lead to the expected rise
in water vapor.
Niche Modelling concludes from the Leviticus data that net total global radiative feedback from
water vapor, etc. is negative, rather
than strongly positive, as estimated by the models cited
in IPCC AR4.
The absolute humidity will be largely set by the oceans, so
water vapor and will increase but relative humidity over land will largely decrease, resulting
in less precipitation
than one would otherwise expect, given Clausius - Clapeyron and a constant residence time.
Now there is more
water vapor in the atmosphere over the Arctic
than there was 20 years ago.