Like weather forecasts — initialized decadal climate modelling might indeed be possible — but these are orders of magnitude more difficult
than weather forecasts.
Were it not for the shenanigans of the climate minority, climate science might have developed along the lines of biology or geology rather
than weather forecasting or some social sciences.
Not exact matches
Ultimately, the company is trying to
forecast a lot more
than the
weather.
Not only did Richardson's
forecast take longer to calculate
than the
weather it was calculating took to happen, but it was also a prediction after the fact that remained manifestly wrong.
Although meteorology had developed throughout the Victorian era to produce same - day
weather maps and daily
weather warnings (based on a telegram service that could literally move faster
than the wind), the practice of
forecasting the
weather as it evolved and changed over time remained notoriously inadequate.
The latest
weather forecasts see slightly more rain
than previously seen, but precipitation levels in Norway and Sweden are still expected to be 2 terawatt - hours (TWh) below normal.
The first three rounds all began at 6:30 a.m. ET, but with inclement
weather predicted for Saturday afternoon, the women will go off split tees (Nos. 1 and 10) starting at 6 a.m. Unless there's a playoff (or multiple extra frames, since the format calls for overtime to determine ties for gold, silver, and bronze medals), stormy
weather earlier
than the
forecast calls for, or a return of the glacial tempo that marred Wednesday's opening round, the 59 - woman field should wrap it up by 1 p.m..
O'Keefe said the flood in the village shows the limits of flash flood
forecasting, which relies on Doppler radar; rainfall measurements from ground stations, like the New York State Mesonet, a network of more
than 120
weather stations across the state; and reports from ground observers.
«Dry, Calm Conditions Needed for Desired Effect» The aerial spraying of approximately 30 - thousand acres of land in parts of western Oneida County has been postponed as a result of less
than ideal
weather conditions
forecast for today and tonight, health department officials announced today.
Less
than 24 hours before the City of Buffalo was anticipating its first snow accumulation of December, Mayor Byron Brown declared the city's streets personnel ready not just for the
forecasted weather but for the entire coming winter season.
Roger Hill with
Weathering Heights Consulting in Vermont's Northeast Kingdom has been
forecasting for more
than 35 years.
Climate
forecasting brings many more variables into play
than weather prediction does.
Commercial satellite services — communication, navigation, and
weather forecasts — generated more
than $ 56 billion for the United States in 2004 alone.
In a study published Jan. 30, 2017, in Space
Weather, scientists from NASA and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, or NCAR, in Boulder, Colorado, have shown that the warning signs of one type of space
weather event can be detected tens of minutes earlier
than with current
forecasting techniques — critical extra time that could help protect astronauts in space.
NOAA's
weather satellites supply more
than 90 percent of the data that go into daily and long - range
forecasts, and they are critical in providing alerts of severe
weather potential multiple days in advance.
Performing experimental
weather forecasts using the Stampede supercomputer at the Texas Advanced Computing Center, researchers have gained a better understanding of the conditions that cause severe hail to form, and are producing predictions with far greater accuracy
than those currently used operationally.
No one was more aware of this
than Richardson, who is recognised as one of the founders of modern
weather forecasting.
Issued Monday afternoon, the
forecast gives less
than a 10 percent chance that
weather problems will delay the launch further.
Increased odds of warm
weather has been
forecast more often
than cold
weather, including a number of spells
forecast to be all warm across the U.S.
When you know the cosmic
weather forecast, you can intentionally elect when to perform specific tasks and strategize your success, so you work with cycles productively rather
than against them.
Looking at this week's
weather forecast, today is supposed to be the coldest day, so it seemed best to just bundle up, wrap it all together, and leave the house with nothing less
than a few good layers — of cashmere preferably.
So what better way to combat a wet and overcast
weather forecast,
than by adding a little sunshine into your skirt.
The long Easter weekend lays ahead of us and we do hope for some better
weather than the
forecast gives us.
Hello my Beauties, i really hope the weekend
weather forecast in your area is much better
than mine.
Between less -
than - reliable
weather forecasts and the constant influx of new trends, I picked up a few pieces here and there over the last few weeks to give it a try, and after seeing my favorite celebrities and fashion icons sporting bold colored velvet, I became a fan!
Check the 10 - day
weather forecast: more clouds
than sun, light snow most days, two nights of 10 - degree chill, but otherwise fairly comfortable days in the mid-30s and nights in the low - 20s.
I will not declare success one month into a three month
forecast, but I think that your readers will agree that since the severe
weather so far this winter is consistent with my
forecast, [this] makes the ideas that I expressed more compelling
than if I had not made a
forecast.
Again, you need to be talking to meteorologists — I judge their (daily)
weather forcasts to be generally close, rarely perfect, or better
than my own — I judge their intermediate term
forecasts to be coin tossing, even the 7 day
forecast changes daily, and at any given time it's rarely close in retrospect, or again, better
than my own.
Thus for
weather forecasts, a prediction is described as skillful if it works better
than just assuming that each day is the same as the last («persistence»).
This is distinct from and more subtle
than the usual «chaos fallacy» which reads something like «We can't predict next week's
weather, so how can we make global warming
forecasts 100 years out?
The differences between these ensemble members represent the unpredictable parts of daily
weather variability that we can't
forecast more
than a couple weeks in advance.
The counterintuitive thing that follows from this is that it's easier, in a way, to
forecast climate years in advance
than it is to
forecast weather just weeks in the future.
Heck, we can't get tomorrow's
weather forecast correct more
than 70 % of the time!
In 2 December was an abnormality, with temperatures rising above 26 or 27 Celsius for sure, I was working outside and the heat was not from this season (the
weather reports, as usual, have
forecasted for this particular day, temperatures at least 10 degrees lower
than REALITY).
Feedback from this office indicated that the 2:19 a.m. Suomi NPP SFR image (Figure 2) matched ground - based observations better
than the precipitation
forecast from the North American Mesoscale
Forecast System (NAM), a NOAA
weather forecast model, within this data - sparse region.
My take away from the NYT article this Sunday on Kulluk is that the issues were more a matter of Shell's internal risk management systems breaking down
than the need for better
weather forecasts.
Thus, a deterministic
weather forecast can not be accurate after a period of a few weeks, and the time interval for skillful modern
forecasts is only somewhat shorter
than the estimate for this theoretical limit.
We can translate those to mean sunspot activity, historical
weather data and variations in magnetism to create a better chance of accuracy
than the limited variables in most
forecasts, but especially those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
We need to focus more on improving
weather forecasting on longer time scales
than the current 7 - 8 days so that vulnerable communities have more time to prepare for adversity.
Their paper does not appear to do much more
than test whether climate models can produce
weather forecasts.
During the winter of 2014 in the northern hemisphere we've been hearing about the polar vortex on
weather forecasts for more
than two months.
If we introduce new constants of length and time for
weather forecast and economy with base other
than speed of light all waves in economy and air will change.
Just by using the analog patterns of how these drivers of the
weather repeat in an interacting interlaced method, results in a long range
forecast with greater accuracy
than the best models get out past 7 days.
I don't try to generate my own
weather forecasts other
than seeing fronts on maps and low / high pressure systems, and wind isobar patterns.
Over the years, even the evening news and the
weather forecast have changed in its narrative and appearance so as to be more about entertainment
than about information.
Most meteorologists do
weather forecasting, but understanding the
weather is radically different
than understanding climate.
Several days ago, Andy Revkin did a nice post querying a number of
weather forecasters and researchers about the relative merits of the different
forecast models [link], particularly since everyone seemed to be paying attention to the European model (ECMWF) rather
than NOAA's GFS model.
The fact is, currently we can't
forecast the climate, anymore
than we can
forecast the
weather (beyond a short time horizon).
If the 100 - year forecasters are so smarter
than the 2 - day forecasters, I say we should transfer the 100 - year climate forecasters to the two - day
weather forecasting department and let them show their stuff.
Because the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex is driven by atmospheric waves, which are related to short - term
weather fluctuations, we can't
forecast these events more
than 10 - 15 days in advance with much skill.