Not exact matches
Although Frank J. Schwartz, a shark biologist with the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, says
there's too much
natural variability in weather cycles to blame the recent shark attacks on global warming, George H. Burgess, the director of the International Shark Attack File at the Florida Museum of Natural H
natural variability in weather
cycles to blame the recent shark attacks on global
warming, George H. Burgess, the director of the International Shark Attack File at the Florida Museum of
Natural H
Natural History.
Worldwide
there was a significant
natural warming trend in the 1980's and 1990's as a Solar
cycle peaked with lots of sunspots and solar flares.
A more reasonable
natural variability / forcing argument might go something like this: 1)
There is
natural variability of climate due to solar activity 2) Climate is changing now 3) Forcing can result in climate change, but the response of the C
cycle to forcing is poorly understood 4) Forcing is happening now 5) Forcing and / or solar activity could be to blame for current
warming trends Is this unreasonable?
Mathematically speaking
there is absolutely no chance that our current
warming is in any sense a part of a
natural cycle.
McCarthy and his colleagues, however, argue
there could be a reprieve from
warming based on
natural ocean
cycles — not solar activity.
There are many
natural climatic
cycles that we already know of, and the current
warming trend may just be part of one that we have not yet identified.
Answer: While it is undoubtedly true that
there are
natural cycles and variations in global climate, those who insist that current
warming is purely
natural — or even mostly
natural — have two challenges.
But the utter incoherence of views presented by deniers gives the game away even so (it's cooling, it's
warming but the sun is responsible, it's
warming but some unknown
natural cycle is responsible, the «greenhouse» effect violates the laws of thermodynamics, but somehow the energy radiated back to the surface by the atmosphere simply vanishes,
there is a greenhouse effect but negative feed - backs make it negligible, & c ad nauseam).
A decades - long
natural cycle would do the trick; it wouldn't mean
there was no anthropogenic
warming.
«While it is undoubtably true that
there are some
cycles and
natural variations in global climate, anyone who wishes to insist that the current
warming is purely or even just mostly
natural has two challenges.»
There are
natural processes that drive global climate
warming, like Milankovitch
cycles, and these are accounted for in (for example) the IPCC reports, as well as numerous studies.
Firstly, even with man - made global
warming taken into account, because of the short - term noise due to the internal variability in the climate system, climate models predict that
there will be decades where
natural cycles dampen the man - made
warming trend.
It seems for instance
there is a 1 Kyear
natural cycle leading to RWP about 2 Kyears ago and a MWP about 1 Kyear ago... See for illustration Ljungqvist 2010 Actually Global
Warming observed during 19th and 20th centuries is very likely corresponding to LIA recovery, i.e. from the cool period of this 1 Kyear
cycle.
He says that, in terms of climate science research, scientists still need to address the remaining uncertainties in the carbon
cycle: where and how fast the carbon released into the atmosphere goes, how much stays in the atmosphere, whether
there are limits to some
natural sinks for carbon and whether
there are important new sources of carbon emissions that may be triggered by
warming.
If all that CO2 does is to marginally raise global temperature over the period of a
natural solar driven
warming and cooling
cycle then
there is nothing to fear because the mitigating effect in cool periods will outweigh any discomfort from the aggravating effect at and around the peak of the
warm periods.
In preparation for that program and using the results of Figures 4.4 and 4.5 of the report published on the website of The Right Climate Stuff Research Team: http://www.therightclimatestuff.com/BoundingClimateSensitivityForRegDecisions.pdf, I concluded that if one believes
there has been no continued
natural warming since 1850 from the approx. 1000 year period
natural climate
cycle that brought us the Roman
Warm Period, The Medieval
Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, then the carefully worded IPCC AR5 report claim that most of the global
warming since 1950 is due to human causes, is TRUE.
The much bigger fact that stands out is that
there was no significant cooling trend during this time (when
there should have been if we are in a
natural cycle) and that we continued to have
warmer years in 2005 and 2010 and soon to be 2014.
The book claims that
there is no climate catastrophe because global
warming is part of a
natural cycle related to the sun.
But in defiance of the naysayers who want to chalk the recent
warming up to
natural cycles,
there is insufficient evidence that enough extra solar energy is reaching our planet to account for the observed rise in global temperatures.
Of course, these glacial - interglacial
cycles operate on very long timescales (tens of thousands of years), and it is possible that superimposed on the
natural cooling trend
there is some «
natural warming trend» that is part of a shorter - timescale variability, but no one (no one) has found any evidence to support this yet.
My point, that
there have been three periods approximately 30 years long, in the last century and a half, in which the rate of temperature rise was the same as it was from 1970 - 2000 shows that the recent coolings and
warmings are from
natural cycles.