Bottom line: the great ice loss of summer 2007 was substantially set up by the export of huge amounts of
thick old ice many years earlier, as described here:
Particularly important, according to Ignatius Rigor of the University of Washington, was a great «flush» of
thick old ice around 1989 and another around a decade later (animation below).
A new study, led by Son Nghiem at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and appearing this week in Geophysical Research Letters, used satellites and buoys to show that winds since 2000 had pushed huge amounts of
thick old ice out of the Arctic basin past Greenland.
Here's the main graphic, which shows the dramatic recent expansion of open water (dark blue) at the peak of summer melt, and the decline in
thick old ice (white is ice that is over five years old) and thin ice formed the previous winter (light blue).
And, we are losing
thick old ice via export and melt while the seasonal ice has stayed relatively unchanged.
Ignatius Rigor was among those who pointed me to a particularly important one - time «flush» (my term) of
thick old ice around 1989 - 90 that had an enduring impact on the proportion of older ice from then on.
Arctic sea ice is varying there because of dynamics AND thermodynamics on many time scales and driven by all manner of influences — with much of the recent drop due to a big flush of
thick old ice many years ago.
The total area covered by
thick older ice that survives one or more summers («multi-year ice») shrank 42 percent or 1.54 million square kilometers (595,000 square miles), leaving thinner first - year ice («seasonal ice») as the dominant type of ice in the region.
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The Arctic Ocean continually loses
thick,
old ice, the kind that easily survives a warm summer, as currents sweep it out the Fram Strait, east of Greenland.
«In recent years Arctic pack
ice has formed progressively later, melted earlier, and lost much of its
older and
thicker multi-year component,» says Anthony Fischbach of the US Geological Survey (USGS) and one of the research team.
This
ice will lie next to the northern coasts of Greenland and the Canadian Arctic archipelago, the region where the
oldest and
thickest ice now occurs.
A big «hole» appeared in August in the
ice pack in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, north of Alaska, when thinner seasonal
ice surrounded by
thicker,
older ice melted.
Some analyses have hinted the Arctic's multiyear sea
ice, the
oldest and
thickest ice that survives the summer melt season, appeared to have recuperated partially after the 2012 record low.
It has also decreased the amount of the
oldest,
thickest Arctic sea
ice, leaving polar waters dominated by thinner
ice that forms in the fall and melts in the summer.
Not so long ago, the Arctic Ocean was covered by
thick ice several years
old.
We might have been unlucky: natural variability might have accelerated
ice loss by pushing
old,
thick ice out of the Arctic.
What remains at the end of the summer gets
thicker over the following winter as new
ice is added to the
old.
Reedy Glacier is the main East Antarctic tributary of
old ice stream A, which mostly drains West Antarctic
ice, so the high moraines had to result from
thicker West Antarctic
ice.
What the scientists think happened was that the traditionally
older,
thicker ice around Greenland and the Canadian archipelago «just didn't melt away as much as it usually would» during the cooler summer conditions, «and it kind of just remained over the summer melt season,» Tilling said.
The caves are rarely accessible in winter because
ice isn't usually
thick enough to support foot traffic, forcing visitors to wait until summer to visit them by boat (at which point they're just plain
old caves).
The loss of
thicker,
older ice in general is a well - documented trend in the Arctic.
The Canadian Rockies tower over
ice - blue glacial lakes and
thick green pine forests before descending to vast prairies, home to
old ranching and cowboy towns.
Thinner, young sea
ice is more susceptible to being compressed by wind than is
older,
thicker sea
ice.
Scientists were shocked in recent days to discover open water north of Greenland, an area normally covered by
old, very
thick ice.
We know new thin
ice is more vunerable to weather than
older thicker ice.
But much of that
ice is flowing out of the Arctic Ocean — and the departure of
older thicker ice by that route is one reason this summer will have a lot of open water up North, according to
ice experts.
iow more than three quarters of the critically important historically «normal level» of
thick,
older ice is gone already!
In 1985, 45 % of the sea
ice in the Arctic was
thick,
older ice, said NOAA Arctic scientist Emily Osborne.
We also lost more of the
older (and
thicker)
ice out of Fram Strait this winter because of the positive winter AO.
One way or the other, it's clear that, by the end of the 1990s, the veneer of
ice on the Arctic Ocean had shifted to a far more tenuous state, with ever less
thick, years -
old ice like the floes I camped on when I went with the team setting up the annual North Pole Environmental Observatory.
The total area covered by the
thicker,
older «multi-year»
ice that has survived one or more summers shrank by 42 percent.
The pace of
ice loss — both its extent and the amount of the
older,
thicker ice that survives from summer to summer — has been faster than most models predicted and clearly has, as a result, unnerved some polar researchers by revealing how much is unknown about
ice behavior in a warming climate.
(i)
Older,
thicker multiyear
ice continues to flush out of the high Canadian Arctic and depending on winter surface circulation, some of this
ice may reach very close to the coast.
And, differ between «young» (frozen last winter) and
old ice (many years
old very
thick ice).
The letter noted that the sharp recent reduction in the extent of sea
ice, and particularly
thick older sea
ice, was far outpacing what had been projected by computer simulations.
The percentage of
ice that was many years
old, forming
thick pancaked expanses, was at its lowest since satellite observations began 30 years ago.
The fate of sea
ice in the Arctic Ocean is determined by a complicated mix of factors, including the pressure changes, with the biggest loss of
old thick ice resulting more from a great «flush» of floes than melting, Dr. Rigor and many other scientists tracking the region say.
It's clear to a range of scientists that the enormous loss of
old,
thick ice carried on currents from the Arctic out past Greenland into the Atlantic Ocean in recent years is a major factor that has led to sharp summer melting.
The physical justification for this statement is based primarily on the loss of
old,
thick sea
ice and the increased mobility of sea
ice.
In addition to the loss of
old thick sea
ice, the increased mobility of sea
ice in the Beaufort Sea is consistent with the high sea
ice mobility seen in the Atlantic sector by the drift of the «TARA» during the DAMOCLES experiment (Gascard, EOS, Vol.
The physical justification for this statement is based primarily on the loss of
old,
thick sea
ice and the increased mobility of sea
ice (less extensive, thinner
ice is more mobile).
Sea
ice less than one year
old was somewhat
thicker than has been observed in recent years, with a modal thickness around 1.8 m, after one of the coldest North American winters in recent years.
Compared to spring 2011, the
old ice in the Beaufort Sea in May 2012 appears to be somewhat more consolidated and
older overall (which typically implies
thicker ice), with more
ice of three years of age or greater and less first - year
ice mixed in.
This estimate includes 2nd - and 3rd - year sea
ice and covers only the central Arctic Basin, so the loss of
older thicker sea
ice is even greater (see also Comiso, 2011, J. Climate, Vol.
Relatively large expanses of
older, multiyear
ice were observed in the Beaufort Sea with a modal thickness around 3.6 m, which was also somewhat
thicker than has been observed in this region recently.