Warren Buffett, the greatest capital allocator of all time, says: «There are only two things an investor needs to know; how to value a company and how to
think about stock prices.»
Others will stand ready to buy the shares at the current market price, meaning supply and demand aren't helpful ways to
think about stock prices.
The institutional imperative in this case is the emphasis and importance that publicly traded companies place on what Wall Street analysts
think about the stock price of their company.
Not exact matches
«And while this has been a very damaging reputational moment for the company — the dramatic decline in the
stock price, the front - page stories, all kinds of negative press
about the business and various assertions and attacks — we
think the Valeant business is quite robust.»
Gerstner said he
thinks United Airlines
stock is worth double or triple its current share
price of
about $ 75, or even more, with his target
price at as much as $ 235 a share.
Dziuba
thinks it can grow earnings by 20 % a year, and predicts its
stock price will climb from $ 20 today to
about $ 34.
The fall was brought on by some lost contracts, big layoffs, worries
about a Chinese slowdown and drop in private jet travel; it was uncertain times to be sure, but with the economy in recovery mode today, many
think the
stock price is poised for a rebound.
The
pricing and high demand reflect what Wall Street's top investment firms
think about the
stock, and telegraphs how the year's most anticipated IPO might fare in the public market.
He
thinks the
stock price, which is
about $ 4.50 today, could reach $ 5.25 over the next 12 months, while Poirer predicts it will climb to $ 6.
Think about it; if you were unlucky enough to buy into the
stock market at the peak in 2008, just before the financial crisis hit full force, your gains (excluding dividends) wouldn't buy you much more than two loaves of
price - fixed bread at Loblaws and a bag of President's Choice sour grapes.
While some have expressed concerns
about the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will start to ease away from its stimulus program,
Price's Puglia said he does not
think that necessarily will hurt
stock performance.
And, as Jason Del Ray pointed out three years ago in a post
about Amazon's refusal to release its Prime figures, while Bezos himself has made it clear that he doesn't care much
about what Wall Street
thinks, many of his employees care very much
about the company's
stock price.
three years ago in a post
about Amazon's refusal to release its Prime figures, while Bezos himself has made it clear that he doesn't care much
about what Wall Street
thinks, many of his employees care very much
about the company's
stock price.
Think of the price the same way you might think about the initial stock price in a traditional
Think of the
price the same way you might
think about the initial stock price in a traditional
think about the initial
stock price in a traditional IPO.
As value managers, we often explain that we aren't forecasting a giant change in the fundamentals of companies we invest in, but rather we expect the
stock price to increase significantly when investors change how they
think about our companies.
At Oakmark, we believe that the academic view on
stocks is largely, but not completely, correct: We
think that most of the time, most
stocks are
priced about right — but not always, and never each and every
stock.
I don't really worry
about stocks being «overvalued» other than the reviewing P / E; I
think price is reflected in the dividend yield and I'm investing more for income than capital gains.
Focusing on your
stock price and caring
about what other people
think about it is counterproductive, as it creates a major distraction to focusing on what is important: running the business.
You should also not invest in
stocks if you don't know how to
think about market
prices — to buy when everyone else is selling and sell when everyone else is buying.
I do
think there is merit in looking at general rates (we likely won't return to the rate environment of the early 1980's for example), but I wouldn't be getting excited
about stock prices at these levels for the sole reason that bond yields are really low.
We're
thinking about the time Wall Street banks colluded on rigging
prices on the Nasdaq market; or the time they rigged their research departments and told us to buy
stocks that they were secretly callings dogs and crap; or the time they got S&P and Moody's to give them triple - A ratings on subprime pools of debt while keeping it a secret that they had internal reports showing the loans didn't meet their origination standards — and then they went out and secretly shorted that debt while continuing to sell it to their customers as a good investment.
But, if investors did
think that way then they were only worrying
about how other people
priced the
stock and not what the
stock should be valued at.
Think about the CEO of a company who takes credit — and bonuses worth many millions — if the
stock market
price of his company rises but who blames anonymous market forces when it tanks.
I know we are still in the middle of summer and it can be hard to
think about fall weather, but this sale is worth shopping ahead of time and
stocking up on some of next season's hottest trends at unbelievable
prices that go back up August 4th.
I
thought about the Ford Focus Sport model but I didn't like the reliability ratings, and I also
thought about the Subaru WRX, but it was slightly out of my
price range and the dealers can't keep them in
stock to test drive..
Nevertheless, Amazon's
stock price has fallen since early December and Spencer
thinks some of the pressure on the
stock is coming from investors worried
about Amazon's ability to compete with Apple during a transition from physical books to digital.
I do believe it's very difficult to do, and I
think the much easier path to market beating returns is to buy good businesses at low
prices over time, without worrying
about overall
stock prices.
Here's why to
think that way: If all you know
about a
stock is its
price, you do not know whether the
stock is fairly valued.
If someone is writing
about a «cheap
price» for a
stock, I want to know why they
think it is cheap.
For those who
think about individual business valuations as an important underpinning of equities, rising
stock prices bring with them valuation considerations which we have talked
about in previous letters.
In my small unique book «The small
stock trader» I also had more detailed overview of tens of
stock trading mistakes (http://thesmallstocktrader.wordpress.com/2012/06/25/
stock-day-trading-mistakessinceserrors-that-cause-90-of-
stock-traders-lose-money/): • EGO (
thinking you are a walking
think tank, not accepting and learning from you mistakes, etc.) • Lack of passion and entering into
stock trading with unrealistic expectations
about the learning time and performance, without realizing that it often takes 4 - 5 years to learn how it works and that even +50 % annual performance in the long run is very good • Poor self - esteem / self - knowledge • Lack of focus • Not working ward enough and treating your
stock trading as a hobby instead of a small business • Lack of knowledge and experience • Trying to imitate others instead of developing your unique
stock trading philosophy that suits best to your personality • Listening to others instead of doing your own research • Lack of recordkeeping • Overanalyzing and overcomplicating things (Zen - like simplicity is the key) • Lack of flexibility to adapt to the always / quick - changing
stock market • Lack of patience to learn
stock trading properly, wait to enter into the positions and let the winners run (inpatience results in overtrading, which in turn results in high transaction costs) • Lack of
stock trading plan that defines your goals, entry / exit points, etc. • Lack of risk management rules on stop losses, position sizing, leverage, diversification, etc. • Lack of discipline to stick to your
stock trading plan and risk management rules • Getting emotional (fear, greed, hope, revenge, regret, bragging, getting overconfident after big wins, sheep - like crowd - following behavior, etc.) • Not knowing and understanding the competition • Not knowing the catalysts that trigger
stock price changes • Averaging down (adding to losers instead of adding to winners) • Putting your
stock trading capital in 1 - 2 or more than 6 - 7
stocks instead of diversifying into
about 5
stocks • Bottom / top fishing • Not understanding the specifics of short selling • Missing this market / industry /
stock connection, the big picture, and only focusing on the specific
stocks • Trying to predict the market / economy instead of just listening to it and going against the trend instead of following it
Nygren also talks
about the pros and cons of rising interest rates as they pertain to bank
stocks, why he is high on some industrial
stocks, and why he
thinks investors are overreacting to oil
price declines, creating opportunities in oil
stocks.
Now it appears that we have the same
thoughts that the
stock price has further to fall based on your comment above
about the TTM EPS.
This all kinda begs an EMH question — if everyone knows that value
stocks outperform in the long run, don't you
think that's gonna get more than
priced in, particularly when people feel so confident
about this 40 year old theory that they consider it a fact.
If you
think it's going to keep growing you can use these complex formulas that they teach in business school, things that I learned
about like the capital asset
pricing model or discount cash flow models and decide what a share of
stock is worth.
The first thing we
think about when we buy a
stock is if we'd be happy purchasing the whole company at the current
price and holding it for a long time.
Fama says that
stock prices are determined by investors making rational decisions
about economic realities, suggesting that individual investors who
think they can outsmart the market are fooling themselves.
My only
thought about this tender is that the
price range is rather odd since the
stock is already trading at $ 42 / share; why anyone would tender below the current market
price is not clear to me.
That's not the right way to
think about investing in these
stocks, says David Lee, manager of T. Rowe
Price Real Estate (TRREX), which gained 53.6 % over the past year.
I do
think there is merit in looking at general rates (we likely won't return to the rate environment of the early 1980's for example), but I wouldn't be getting excited
about stock prices at these levels for the sole reason that bond yields are really low.
As you might have
thought the growth companies would do well, you would no longer talk
about a premium for growth companies once you discover that it's a value company, once that has lower growth prospects and sell at low
prices rather than high
stock prices, which have provided a reward.
I would not try to assume that
stocks are a good inflation hedge... Corporations have to buy raw materials and have to feed hungry workers... When the
price of oil and foold go up it is very hard for corporations to improve on earnings, so if you
think about it, much of the benefits of a rise in CPI are negated by a rise in raw materials
prices... Put more bluntly, we are in a period of stagflation right now.
You don't care so much
about the daily
prices offered by Mr. Market for your
stocks, any more than a gas - station owner
thinks daily
about what he could sell his business for.
Ask the sales rep what he
thinks about how Apple's earnings will go, or what the outlook for oil
prices and
stocks are, and you'll get a blank look and then some song and dance
about how any diversified portfolio will allocate a certain percentage to technology and oil.
A buyer of a private business naturally
thinks about where the business will be in ten years — perhaps because he intuitively knows that there will be no greater fools around to buy his
stock at a higher
price.
Cause in
stock terms, a 5.2 % yield works out to be a
price / earning ratio of
about 19:1, which I
think is fairly high and what you'd expect from high growth
stocks.
I
think this article says a lot
about value Investing, If business and management of an organization is strong and due to behavioral biasing
stock price of that company moving down that is the point to find by us and buy that
stock then the crowd after realizing will join us and help to compounding.
You should also not invest in
stocks if you don't know how to
think about market
prices — to buy when everyone else is selling and sell when everyone else is buying.
And if I had many such
stocks in the portfolio with a long - term value, and the upside returns were very attractive, but in the short term, because people were afraid and people were
thinking about the worst case scenarios and
pricing it in, they were selling off the
stocks, we were actually dollar cost averaging down.
The higher the
stock price, the more compensation for top executives who never
thought to worry
about the future.