I still
think change in circulation includes all of these problems.
Not exact matches
Lyon
thinks this
change in temperatures has altered atmospheric
circulation patterns, cutting off the supply of moisture to east Africa (Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029 / 2011GL050337).
He believes that no one has
thought of combining the two theories before because it's not an intuitive idea to look at how the effects of
changing patterns of ocean
circulation, which occur on time scales of thousands of years, would effect global silicate weathering, which
in turn controls global climate on time scales of 100s of thousands of years.
By analyzing these records, Knudson and Ravelo found that the strength of the overturning
circulation in the North Pacific is inherently linked to global climate
changes, but not
in the way scientists had previously
thought.
Your statement that «Thus it is natural to look at the real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves
in the same way (and it appears to, since model hindcasts of past
changes match observations very well)» seems to indicate that you
think there will be no
changes in ocean
circulation or land use trends, nor any subsequent
changes in cloud responses thereto or other atmospheric
circulation.
A number of recent studies linking
changes in the North Atlantic ocean
circulation to sea ice extent led Yeager to
think that it would also be possible to make decadal predictions for Arctic winter sea ice cover using the NCAR - based Community Earth System Model...
The Past and Future Ocean
Circulation from a Contemporary Perspective,
in AGU Monograph, 173, A. Schmittner, J. Chiang and S. Hemming, Eds., 53 - 74, (pdf)» Wunsch's publications page is great food - for -
thought, I particularly enjoyed his papers on Ice Age
changes and the Milankovitch cycles.
It's
thought that there is an improvement
in the
circulation of this fluid when the lymphatic valves are opened throughout a
change in gravitational pull.
I'm still inclined to
think that subtle
changes in ocean
circulation patterns, with resulting local effects on climate, are more likley to be responsible.
Your statement that «Thus it is natural to look at the real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves
in the same way (and it appears to, since model hindcasts of past
changes match observations very well)» seems to indicate that you
think there will be no
changes in ocean
circulation or land use trends, nor any subsequent
changes in cloud responses thereto or other atmospheric
circulation.
It also provides the background state against which El Niño events take place, and so
changes in the Walker
circulation should form an intrinsic part of
thinking about how global warming will affect El Niño.
However, the Trade Winds are primarily caused by the Hadley
circulation, and are only modulated by the Walker
circulation, so it is more precise to
think of this result as indicating a
change in strength of the Walker
circulation.
Since it spoke of
circulation changes and specifically referenced section 3.6.4, I too would have
thought they were
in fact referring to NAO / NAM (maybe related to NAM accounting for half the warming over Eurasia 1968 — 97?).
This rise of temperature could honcvcr he explained, qualitatively if not quantitatively, by
changes in the atiiiospheric
circulation, arid
in those regions where a
change in the
circulation aould be expected to cause a fall of temperature, there had actually been a fall; moreover the rise of temperature \ vas about ten times as great
in the arctic regions as
in middle or low latitudes, and he cliil not
think that a
change in the amount of carbon dioxide could cause such a differential effect.
This polar amplification is
thought to be due largely to
changes in sea ice, with some contributions from
changes in snow cover, atmospheric and ocean
circulation, cloud cover and the presence of soot.
Slow variations
in upper ocean heat content that have been observed
in the subpolar and marginal ice zone regions of the Atlantic since the mid-twentieth century are
thought to be related to
changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning
Circulation (AMOC).
The most likely candidate for that climatic variable force that comes to mind is solar variability (because I can
think of no other force that can
change or reverse
in a different trend often enough, and quick enough to account for the historical climatic record) and the primary and secondary effects associated with this solar variability which I feel are a significant player
in glacial / inter-glacial cycles, counter climatic trends when taken into consideration with these factors which are, land / ocean arrangements, mean land elevation, mean magnetic field strength of the earth (magnetic excursions), the mean state of the climate (average global temperature), the initial state of the earth's climate (how close to interglacial - glacial threshold condition it is) the state of random terrestrial (violent volcanic eruption, or a random atmospheric
circulation / oceanic pattern that feeds upon itself possibly) / extra terrestrial events (super-nova
in vicinity of earth or a random impact) along with Milankovitch Cycles.
Changes in ocean circulation are thought to be able to produce large rapid temperature c
Changes in ocean
circulation are
thought to be able to produce large rapid temperature
changeschanges.
While on first
thought this might seem undesirable because we are looking for a global number, it might make sense to separate them due to the large difference
in land / ocean ratio and the fact that atmospheric
circulation patterns isolate them WRT shorter term
changes.
What did they
think 60 years ago about the rate of deep ocean
circulation, was anything said about what they
thought on temperature
changes in the abyss?
I
think it is really important to make that distinction - that there are a number of factors that influence the extent of Arctic sea ice, some of them of course associated with
changes in the radiative forcing from the atmosphere, as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols, but also
changes in the atmospheric
circulation and also the advection of heat into or out of the Arctic by the ocean
circulation.
I haven't looked at this
in detail, but
thinking about it
in response to your question (
changing my story a bit), I am not sure that you need any
change in evaporation to get this result — the moisture convergence due to the
circulation generated by the localized convection is probably enough.