Since scientists started
thinking about climate trends, concerns have been raised about the continuity of records — whether they are met.
Since scientists started
thinking about climate trends, concerns have been raised about the continuity of records — whether they are met.
Not exact matches
We can, therefore, compare the present warming
trends (and warming / cooling cycles;
think about the «mini-ice age» of the 19th Century) with the geological record and make statistical extrapolations
about changing rates and develop hypotheses
about causes (whichh, basically, is what current
climate scientists have been doing).
Applying that simple analogy to
climate trends requires us to
think clearly
about how we define the «target» — what is it that we are afraid the runaway
climate train will «hit»?
Aspects of his comment may be unwelcome to just
about everyone in one way or another, but I
think it is worth noting that he says that the data issues don't detract from clear evidence of a long - term warming
trend and that carbon dioxide is «a major
climate forcing» (along with many others):
If you want to argue with people
about the «accuracy» of global temps, present day and in the past, I
think that you should take that up with someone like Judith, who
thinks that the records are accurate enough to determine that there has been a
trend of rising global SATs that has «paused,» and that the measurements are accurate enough to determine a «wave,» and to determine a range of the
climate's sensitivity to ACO2.
No, I'm not a fan of «
trends» since they are usually simplistic and misleading but since they seem to dominate
about 95 % of the discussion
about climate I
thought a more detailed analysis may help give some insight that the usual attempts to resume any dataset with on straight line fail to do.
Thinking about the problem in terms of temperature increase for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 (which we will probably exceed with current policies and energy
trends), even studies that reinforce the skeptical narrative of low mean
climate sensitivity leaves some chance of warming greatly exceeding international goals and historical boundaries (say a 5 percent chance of warming exceeding 4 °C).
Of course, I don't
think that one example of unusual weather tells us anything
about climate trends, I merely throw this in as a counter to those who
think that modest warming would be catastrophic.
Bearing in mind their previous hubris
about short - term cycles being manmade, their gross, unproven assumption
about CO2 as a
climate driver and the fact that the signal is far less than the error bars in the noise then why would anyone
think that the long - term
trend is anything other than just a separate upswinging natural cycle?
That we tend to see much more discussion
about global warming is I
think because of the limitations of the
climate models when they go to more regional and seasonal predictions and refinements of max versus min temperature
trends.
I suspect that even if temperatures increase faster than the expected
trend, whereas some people will say «Look, AGW is even worse than we
thought», some other people will say «See, they don't know anything
about the
climate — something else is responsible for this.»
It is sardonic, but I
think it is may be worth noting here, I see it as a part of a
trend for budding sceptical
thoughts about climate science.
The problem with the chart is that it starts in 1998 (not to mention
thinking anything particularly meaningful
about long - term
climate trends can be extrapolated from 12 years — try this one instead).
Perhaps if I make comments
about 30 years as the minimum in
climate studies, you might
think about retracting this comment or at the very least cease complaining that «deniers» need to get their heads around the concept (if you make such complaints), or at the very least, deride anyone who uses < 30 year
trends as «proof» of anything in
climate.