But
thinking of extreme events statistically is already leaning on the wrong abstraction.
Not exact matches
, we are conditioned to
think of as
extreme events,» Sarah Henderson a senior scientist at the B.C. Centre for Disease Control, told Vancouver's Metro News.
«What we're seeing right now» in B.C., and what we saw in Alberta last year, we are conditioned to
think of as
extreme events,» Sarah Henderson a senior scientist at the B.C. Centre for Disease Control, told Vancouver's Metro News.
«But there's a powerful argument that the chance
of extreme events is greater than people probably
think, and now is sort
of a strange time to be implicitly making the everything - will - be-OK argument.»
«We have to really
think about anticipated changes in the frequency
of extreme events,» Cloern said.
Because these moderate
extremes are by definition more common, and because the authors looked at global statistics rather than those for highly localized, rare
events, the conclusions are extremely robust, said Peter Stott, leader
of the Climate Monitoring and Attribution Team at the Met Office Hadley Centre, in the U.K. «I
think this paper is very convincing,» said Stott, who was not involved in the research.
«For a long time, the standard answer
of climate scientists to an
extreme event was «we can't attribute single
events to climate change», which when you
think about it is an incredibly naive position.
In the face
of so many
extreme weather
events rocking the world in recent weeks, Gerard Butler recently sat down with CinemaBlend and explained what he
thinks audiences will take away from Geostorm.
The following are common characteristics
of gifted children, although not all will necessarily apply to every gifted child: • Has an extensive and detailed memory, particularly in a specific area
of interest • Has advanced vocabulary for his or her age; uses precocious language • Has communication skills advanced for his or her age and is able to express ideas and feelings • Asks intelligent and complex questions • Is able to identify the important characteristics
of new concepts and problems • Learns information quickly • Uses logic in arriving at common sense answers • Has a broad base
of knowledge; a large quantity
of information • Understands abstract ideas and complex concepts • Uses analogical
thinking, problem solving, or reasoning • Observes relationships and sees connections • Finds and solves difficult and unusual problems • Understands principles, forms generalizations, and uses them in new situations • Wants to learn and is curious • Works conscientiously and has a high degree
of concentration in areas
of interest • Understands and uses various symbol systems • Is reflective about learning • Is enraptured by a specific subject • Has reading comprehension skills advanced for his or her age • Has advanced writing abilities for his or her age • Has strong artistic or musical abilities • Concentrates intensely for long periods
of time, particularly in a specific area
of interest • Is more aware, stimulated, and affected by surroundings • Experiences
extreme positive or negative feelings • Experiences a strong physical reaction to emotion • Has a strong affective memory, re-living or re-feeling things long after the triggering
event
Patty Jansen presents Before you even start self - publishing posted at Must Use Bigger Elephants, saying, «I recently attended an
event for
extreme newbies in self - publishing, and came away with a couple
of thoughts that are fundamental to anyone considering self - publishing, but don't seem to be understood by some people who are just dipping their toes in.»
If you're one
of those people that
thinks eSports is a joke or a fad, I need only point to the fact that the X-Games has partnered with Major League Gaming to have the best Call
of Duty Ghosts players compete in what is often
thought of as the
extreme Olympics
event.
Taking your 75 % number as an example, I
think they understand something like this: «75 %
of the strength
of this
extreme event is attributable to global warming», or «There's 75 % chance that this
event would not have occurred without global warming».
I
think most journalists and laypeople understand the results in some kind
of twisted way similar to what Tim formulated, that is, as applicable to a particular
extreme event that they're considering, and not to the statistics
of these
extreme events.
If anything, I
think a key point in the post (and it would be good to check that this is what Rasmus was getting at) is that climate change will almost certainly impact the distribution
of events and, hence, will almost certainly influence those
events that we currently regard as
extreme / rare.
RiHo08 says (28) «Since the recent heat wave and peat bog fires in Russia this summer have been used as evidence
of an
extreme weather
event in response to global climate change, I
thought a llterary reference to such
events occurring periodically at least to the 12 th Century would be informative.»
Since the recent heat wave and peat bog fires in Russia this summer have been used as evidence
of an
extreme weather
event in response to global climate change, I
thought a llterary reference to such
events occurring periodically at least to the 12 th Century would be informative.
I
think of those who struggle everywhere but now, especially, I
think of the Yawanawá people whose village was devastated by unusual early flooding and
of Acre's increasingly frequent
extreme weather
events.
I do
think they «aren't needed» to support the assertion that various global warming - related factors have observably played a role in causing, contributing to, and / or greatly exacerbating the destructive effects
of recent «
extreme weather
events».
I
think that's a far better approach than labeling every account
of an
extreme rain or snowfall a «global warming type»
event, as some bloggers insist.
But really what should scare you is the ten - foot woman, the
extreme event that either no one has
thought of, or putting in their models and saying «the chance
of that happening is pretty small, let's not worry about it.»
In a poll released last November by the Public Religion Research Institute, fewer than half
of them were willing to link
extreme weather
events to climate change, whereas more than three - quarters
thought these
events were signs
of the «end times» predicted in the Bible.
I also
think that some sceptics have too readily seized on this as evidence
of future cooling in the same way that the strong advocated
of cAGW seize on any and all
extreme weather
events as evidence
of «climate change».
I
thought the issue
of his talk was specifically attribution
of extreme events to warming.
Thinking about climate change in the context
of how these
extreme events will change can help farmers and other end users to understand its implications.
But as parts
of Queensland hit the road to recovery, it is worth
thinking about what makes a community resilient to
extreme events like floods and cyclones.
So that whole risk way
of thinking around
extreme events, I
think, again, brings a new set
of challenges to climate science that we didn't really confront before.
Most
of the developing world doesn't have weather forecasts beyond two days, and often these forecasts do not anticipate
extreme weather
events (
think Pakistan floods, Severe Cyclone Nargis).
This is in addition to the probable role
of GHG - induced amplification
of the atmospheric waves in the mid - and high - latitudes, which are
thought to lead to increased
extreme events across the Southwest and beyond [76,77].
On a tangent, but still within the issues raised in the original post, this kind
of thinking is useful for analyzing
extreme events (the ones in the fat tails).
Now you might
think that, by my own explanation above, fewer
extreme weather
events supports the original theory
of AGW.
SEQ has floods almost every year — and there had been major floods in May 2009 — not as severe but sufficient for state
of emergency to be declared, and more than sufficient you'd
think to suggest more
extreme event might be possible.
He began by discussing how we talk about facts versus the information that they convey and ended with a discussion
of science communication opportunities linked to
extreme events and some
thoughts on what scientists could do to improve their communication with the general public.
This shift in the distribution obviously affects
extreme events, and there is no reason to
think that the next 40 years won't see another degree in these areas with a continuation
of current trends in GHGs.
I sort
of thought that no
extreme single
event could be attributed to GW, bec GW is at a more macro statistical level, and I suppose there is a long tail in non-GW weather
event possibilities in which such an
event could have occurred under non-GW conditions.
On Wednesday, we were surprised to be pulled on stage at Windows Weekly to share our
thoughts on the
events of the week, but were happy to participate in
extreme sock - throwing for the audience Q&A!
If your partner suffers from
extreme anxiety, they may have panic attacks, constantly be voicing their worried
thoughts, or may not be able to participate in social
events because
of a fear
of social settings.
I
think a localized
event like a tech bust or a more worldwide
event could cool off the economy enough to trigger some severity
of recession (whether it be typical or
extreme).