Abrupt summer sea ice decline has not affected polar bear numbers as predicted: even
though sea ice levels dropped to mid-century levels in 2007, the expected decimation of polar bears failed to occur.
Not exact matches
If the great
ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica lose enough
ice to raise
sea level a metre or more,
though, it would take thousands of years for snowfall to build up the
ice sheets again.
More than 12,000 years ago, Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers were grounded on top of a large wedge of sediment, and were buttressed by a floating
ice shelf, making them relatively stable even
though they rested below
sea level.
May and June this year also saw record low
sea ice levels,
though the decline eased off in July.
The fact that
ice sheets will respond to warming is not in doubt (note the 4 - 6 m
sea level rise during the last interglacial), but the speed at which that might happen is highly uncertain,
though the other story this week shows it is ongoing.
But roughly speaking, if you do an LGM run and only reduce
sea level, put in the
ice sheets, change the vegetation, add some dust (
though that one is still rough), then you get about 50 % the way you want to go.
Thus, for every 1 % increase in local
sea level, there is a ~ 5 % increase in
ice flux through the grounding line (
though this may be higher if the bed is slippery near the grounding line, see Tsai et al. 2015).
It is also possible for cold climates to increase chemical weathering in some ways, by lowering
sea level to expose more land to erosion (
though I'd guess this can also increase oxydation of C in sediments) and by supplying more sediments via glacial erosion for chemical weathering (of course, those sediments must make it to warmer conditions to make the process effective — downhill and downstream, or perhaps via pulsed
ice ages -LRB-?)-RRB-.
In this regard, I would observe that at least one important AGW effect, rising
sea level, does not depend on a specific regional outcome so much as on global mean T. (At least, I think this is so (because my understanding is that most of the rise comes from lower density of warmer water, not from melting
ice sheets —
though again, not 100 % sure on this point)-RRB-.
Rick and her colleagues Max Boykoff and Roger Pielke studied 20 years of newspaper archives (1989 — 2009) and found that journalists frequently quoted the most recent IPCC
sea -
level rise projections even
though the majority of articles were about only one source of
sea -
level rise — usually melting
ice — or one particularly high - profile scientific paper.
This thermal expansion was the main driver of global
sea level rise for 75 - 100 years after the start of the Industrial Revolution,
though its relative contribution has declined as the shrinking of land
ice has accelerated.
In contrast, the actual science shows something quite different:
though summer
sea ice since 2007 has declined to
levels not predicted until 2040 - 2070, there has been virtually no negative impact on polar bear health or survival, a result no one predicted back in 2005.
Recent evidence of faster rates of global
sea -
level rise suggests that these projections may be too low.3, 4,5 Given recent accelerated shrinking of glaciers and
ice sheets, scientists now think that a rise of 2.6 feet (80 centimeters) is plausible — and that as much as 6.6 feet (2 meters) is possible
though less likely.16
Though the Tibetan earthquake was going to happen at some time, it is possible that changes in
ice loading on Himalayan glaciers, changes in water volume outflows in the annual Asian monsoon, and
sea level rise adding pressure to the geological plates below coastlines — especially in low - lying Bangladesh — had an impact.
Melting polar
ice, rising
sea levels, floods, droughts and hurricanes are all in there — even
though these are largely contradicted not just by the actual evidence, but even by the much more cautious contents of the vast technical reports they were meant to be «synthesising».
We're leaving Europe's shoreline now,
though it would have extended farther west back in the icy periods when the
sea level was a lot lower because
ice sheets locked up so much water.
Using climate models, Radic found that these smaller mountain glaciers and
ice caps may contribute more than 4.5 inches (12 centimeters) to world
sea level rise by the beginning of the next century, even
though they contain less than one percent of all water on Earth bound in glacier
ice.
Oh, I almost forgot topographic changes,
though they a few orders of magnitude slower (not counting
ice sheets and associated
sea level here).
According to the Danish Meteorological Institute Arctic
sea ice is well above
levels seen in the last three years
though, per NSIDC, it's about two sigma below the 1979 - 2000 average.
Mooney then explains why Will's focus on global
sea ice levels in 1979 compared to today is misleading and unimportant (even
though Will did get his facts wrong).
Two - Thirds West Antarctic
Ice Sheet = 3.3 Meters
Sea Level Rise What's more, though it's not likely to disappear entirely, about two - thirds of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could well melt — at some point past 2100 — alone contributing about 3.3 meters to global sea leve
Sea Level Rise What's more,
though it's not likely to disappear entirely, about two - thirds of the West Antarctic
Ice Sheet could well melt — at some point past 2100 — alone contributing about 3.3 meters to global
sea leve
sea levels.
At the same time Antarctic
sea -
ice has been more stable,
though most areas have been at very low
levels since autumn 2016.
In fact, it is looking more and more as
though the second assumption is flawed and we may see 5 meters of
sea level rise this century owing to rapid destruction of
ice sheets.
The fact that
ice sheets will respond to warming is not in doubt (note the 4 - 6 m
sea level rise during the last interglacial), but the speed at which that might happen is highly uncertain,
though the other story this week shows it is ongoing.
Doubtless melting at current rates would continue (
though depending on
ice dynamics a new steady state could emerge) but that does not seem very serious; it is only a fraction of current
sea level rise.