It is possible that such changes could significantly influence decadal
tidal gauge trends, e.g., see Gratiot et al., 2008 (Abstract; Google Scholar access) or Currie, 1987 (Abstract).
Again, to justify applying another positive adjustment (this time, nearly doubling the trend from +1.7 mm / yr to +2.8 mm / yr), they relied on a comparison with
tidal gauge trends!
Not exact matches
Syvitski et al., pointed out that
trends at
tidal gauges in delta regions depend on several factors:
So, an apparent «rising» (or «falling»)
trend in a
tidal gauge record might actually be due to any one of several factors:
The biggest difficulty in using
tidal gauges to study global sea level
trends is separating local changes from global changes.
Suppose a particular
tidal gauge shows an apparent
trend of +3 mm / yr.
This will have introduced an artificial «sea level rise»
trend into the
tidal gauge records for those areas, which is actually due to the local land subsiding.
However, as we have seen throughout this section, the
tidal gauge estimates the IPCC used to estimate global sea level
trends are contaminated by local
trends, such as tectonic activity, post-glacial rebound... and the coastal subsidence that Syvitski et al. identified!
So, the effects of such events on local
trends would vary from
tidal gauge to
tidal gauge.
Location of the 524
tidal gauges whose linear
trends have been calculated by PSMSL.
If a coastline is gradually rising or falling due to plates colliding, it would cause the
tidal gauges to show an artificial «sea level»
trend.
In order to use
tidal gauges to reliably estimate global sea level changes, researchers have to successfully separate the components of shifting land heights and local sea level variability from any global
trends.
Moreover, we also have argued elsewhere that linear
trends should be treated cautiously when the data shows non-linear
trends, as many
tidal gauges do.
Despite the various problems with the
tidal gauge data, it is possible that the various estimates of global sea level
trends of 1 - 2 or maybe 2 - 3 mm / year might coincidentally be correct.
And using Church & White
tidal gauge data (which today only runs to 2013 but AR5 had data to 2009), the final years are running above 4mm / yr while such 11 - yr
trends calculated through the full record never top 3mm / yr.
The overall
trend discerned from the tide
gauge data, according to Wolfgang Scherer, Director of Australia's National
Tidal Facility, remains flat.