Sentences with phrase «tightening cycle»

However, historical evidence of past tightening cycles does not provide a consistent confirmation of this.

It did this in five steps over three years — two in mid 2002, two in late 2003 and one in early 2005 — a more gradual tightening cycle than normal.

To be sure, this will be a very different tightening cycle than previous instances.

Consider the yield curve just before the beginning of the 2004 tightening cycle versus the curve shape at the end of that cycle (see Exhibit 2).

In this follow up note, we focus our attention on the shape of the yield curve and returns over various tightening cycles.

The pace of tightening currently priced in by the market is very moderate compared with the experience in past tightening cycles.

One more note: I believe gradualism is almost required in Fed tightening cycles in the present environment — a lot more lending, financing, and derivatives trading gears off of short rates like three - month LIBOR, which correlates tightly with fed funds.

As shown by the slope changes in the table, flatter curves have been characteristic of tightening cycles and steeper curves have resulted from easing cycles.

One more note: I believe gradualism is almost required in Fed tightening cycles in the present environment — a lot more lending, financing, and derivatives trading gears off of short rates like three - month LIBOR, which correlates tightly with fed funds.

The Fed is planting the seeds of its next tightening cycle now.

The last time a Liberal government entered an election in the middle of a monetary policy tightening cycle was in 2006; that year, the Conservatives defeated them.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen last week signaled the U.S. central bank is on track to raise rates this year, despite a weak first quarter that some analysts believe could force the Fed to wait longer before starting its first tightening cycle since 2004 - 2006.

My question is: What will the real, inflation - adjusted yield of Treasuries be once the monetary tightening cycle is done?

Our view that the Canadian interest rate tightening cycle will lag that in the United States is therefore primarily the result of factors outside of the respective business cycles.

In the last tightening cycle, the curve flattened dramatically through the cycle, making the word «conundrum» popular.

As seen in the chart above, the data is mixed, with the past three tightening cycles actually resulting in a net gain in the price of bullion.

This has been one of the slowest tightening cycles on record.

The Fed embarked on its first tightening cycle in more than a decade in December 2015.

Historically, stocks have performed better in slow tightening cycles as opposed to fast cycles, where the Fed raises rates at every meeting after the initial rate increase.

And even in the U.S., where household debt levels have been reduced, leverage remains higher than at the start of previous tightening cycle.

The central bank raised the Selic rate by 50 basis points to 10.5 per cent on Wednesday, extending the world's most aggressive tightening cycle.

Fed tightening cycles often start with a small explosion where short - dated financing for thinly capitalized speculators evaporates, because of the anticipation of higher financing rates.

That would be a relatively low level by historical standards; in the past two tightening cycles by the Fed, the federal funds rate peaked at around 6 per cent.

While the Fed has verbally committed to a shallow and short tightening cycle, interest rates are still likely to rise.

The Fed's tightening cycle likely will be the slowest on record, and Yellen said there will be gaps of undetermined length between each increase.

The somewhat stronger U.S. inflation signal implies a modestly more hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve tightening cycle than what we would expect to see out of the Bank of Canada (BoC) after it left its key overnight lending rate unchanged at 1 % this month.

Historically, that would still mark the slowest US tightening cycle ever.

Every Fed tightening cycle eventually exposes and leads to the collapse of the bubbles de jure.

For example, over the two - year tightening cycle that ended in 2006, the Fed hiked policy rates by 425 bps, causing the One - Year U.S. Treasury Bond yield to increase by 316 bps (see Exhibit 1).

In the current protracted tightening cycle, the Treasury yield curve has remained relatively steep.

Over the same tightening cycle that ended in 2006, the impact on the 10 - Year U.S. Treasury Bond yield was 60 bps higher, driving the 1 - Year / 10 - Year slope to flatten by 265 bps (see Exhibit 1).

Since the start of the FOMC tightening cycle, things have been calm, and predictable, lulling investors into a false sense of security.

The Federal Reserve's current tightening cycle clearly has investors worried about American Capital Agency.

A spate of softer economic data has called into question the speed of potential tightening cycles in Europe, the UK, and Canada.

«Home prices have yet to peak, but with the Fed tightening cycle soon to be underway (we'll see on that but we'll assume for now that's true), it's a good time to consider whether a peak in home prices is on the horizon and what might lay in store on the other side,» Flanagan says

The inflationary impacts of our monetary policy continue to radiate out, and will continue to, until the Fed starts its next tightening cycle.

«Having learned its lesson, the Fed is trying to convince markets that getting off zero is not necessarily the start of a traditional policy tightening cycle,» says Zentner.

Being but a curious and doubting slob, this time I took the time to look at each of the 15 tightening cycles since 1954.

Not often, which is why the Fed was impotent during the last tightening cycle.

Previous tightening cycles — for instance, the mid-1980s energy bust and the bursting dot - com bubble in the late - 1990s — rolled through the economy over five years or so.

Fed tightening cycles often end with a large explosion, where a large levered asset class that was better financed, was not financed well - enough.

Whereas the US dollar typically weakens at the start of a monetary tightening cycle, Morgan Stanley is forecasting a stronger greenback through 2017, largely due to divergent monetary policy — while the US is tightening, many other major markets are either staying their course or still easing.

High dividend stocks and exchange - traded funds are often thought to be vulnerable when the Federal Reserve embarks upon rate tightening cycles.

«Remember, Fed tightening cycles start off benign but 10 of the 13 in the post-WWII era have ended in tears.»

In spirit, the current tightening cycle is no different from previous ones, in that the FOMC is balancing the tradeoff between inflation and growth.

Morgan Stanley also notes the strategy it's recommending has delivered positive returns during Fed tightening cycles in the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s.

What's more, there's always a lot of uncertainty around interest rate hikes, especially these days given how long it has been since the last sustained Fed tightening cycle.