Not exact matches
As CNBC anchor Becky Quick pointed out this morning during their segment in which I joined, we may be entering that phase of the
cycle where good news on Main St. is bad news on Wall St.. That is, accelerating wage growth may lead the Federal Reserve to
tighten faster, slowing overall growth more than currently expected.
Also, bills have typically traded below other money market rates during
tightening cycles,
as they do now; periods where bills trade at or above other rates have been the exception and not the rule.36 Thus, the smaller increase in bill yields than in rates on other term instruments is not surprising, and I do not read it
as undermining the general conclusion that the policy rate increase was effective in firming money market conditions.37
As a result, the equity market's reaction to
tightening is more unpredictable than it has ever been, a fact likely to increase anxiety and uncertainty throughout the
cycle.
Regardless of the period, 3 - month returns following the start of a period of steady
tightening were on average negative and more volatile,
as markets initially reacted negatively to the start of a
tightening cycle.
«By the time 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries reach parity,
as is almost the case now, the economy is typically slowing and the Fed is at or near the end of its
tightening cycle.»
In previous episodes, long yields tended to rise in the early stages of a
tightening cycle at least
as much
as the rise in short rates, reflecting inflation concerns.
Now,
as I noted fairly early this year, there's no statistical evidence at all that stock prices or corporate earnings perform well in the 18 months or so following the end of a rate -
tightening cycle.
Implied volatilities gradually declined around the world in the second half of 2003,
as it became clearer that the easing
cycle was drawing to a close, with some central banks beginning to
tighten monetary policy after a prolonged period of relatively low and stable interest rates.
An aggressive Fed
tightening cycle or global risk - off scenario could pose a threat to the asset class, though we see the risk
as low.
Using duration of the
tightening cycle or «time»
as the benchmark (i.e. splitting up the various phases by 25 % increments), the S&P 500 was up an average 3.6 % (median +2.4 %); using «duration» or basis - point change
as the benchmark, the first 25 % of the
cycle sees an average gain of 7.2 % (median of +5.6 %).
As this chart from Bespoke Investment Group shows, each seeming challenge from the news
cycle — the Mueller probe, the debt ceiling, the Fed
tightening — was deflected by markets that were determined to push higher.
According to beauty guru / healer / inspiration / friend Shiva Rose (whose entire title I wish to adopt
as my own, but that's another article), «Jade eggs can help cultivate sexual energy, increase orgasm, balance the
cycle, stimulate key reflexology around vaginal walls,
tighten and tone, prevent uterine prolapse, increase control of the whole perineum and bladder, develop and clear chi pathways in the body, intensify feminine energy and invigorate our life force.»
Muscles are never completely extended,
as the legs are never completely flexed or extended during
cycling, leading to muscle
tightening, pain in the knees, lower back and hamstring muscles.
The filter will go through expansion - contraction
cycles with the heat from the engine, it will
tighten itself up,
as you've testified to.
As shown by the slope changes in the table, flatter curves have been characteristic of
tightening cycles and steeper curves have resulted from easing
cycles.
During 2004 a leading quantitative analyst predicted the the market multiple on the S&P 500 stocks would decline
as interest rates increased, reflecting the Fed's
tightening cycle.
An aggressive Fed
tightening cycle or global risk - off scenario could pose a threat to the asset class, though we see the risk
as low.
As I have said before, when the FOMC
tightens without thinking about the financial economy, they keep
tightening until something blows up, and then they loosen too much, starting the next
cycle of over-borrowing.
This means that
as the central bank undergoes a
tightening cycle, it could be beneficial to trade interest rate risk for credit risk, if one believes in the continuing strength of an economy.
The recent move up began in earnest at the beginning of the last
tightening cycle, but has persisted into the loosening
cycle,
as the FOMC has not let the monetary base grow, but has permitted the banks to continue to gather deposits (banking, savings, CDs, money market funds).
There were several surprises in store for the FOMC and investors
as the
tightening cycle went on: