We think the speculation about a potential future
tightening of monetary policy by the ECB — whether in the form of a tapering of bond purchases or a rise in interest rates — has moved too far ahead of the economic and political realities within the eurozone.
Not exact matches
Specifically, there are concerns about what might happen should the tide turn in the bond markets when 30 years
of falling interest rates reverses at a time when the Federal Reserve is preparing to
tighten monetary policy by forcing rates higher.
The yield, a barometer for mortgage rates and other financial instruments, has jumped in April on signs
of nascent inflation and as the Federal Reserve stood
by its plan to gradually
tighten monetary policy.
In other words, if you
tighten monetary policy, certainly
by more than is discounted in the market — and what's discounted in the market is very minor rising market — that will reverberate through asset class prices, as well as then you can have a situation in terms
of the economy.
Indeed, in a classic paper written in the early 1960s, Mundell (Mundell, 1963) showed how, in a world
of complete asset substitutability and perfect capital mobility, real interest rates would be largely determined
by international market forces with the exchange rate moving in response to changes in domestic
monetary policy to provide most
of the desired accommodation or
tightening.
In our March statement we indicated that our current
monetary policy stance remained appropriate to achieve our 2 per cent inflation target on a sustainable basis
by around the middle
of 2018, whereas US authorities have now begun to
tighten.
Measured across all loan products, and taking into account changes in customer risk margins, however, it seems that interest rates paid on average
by small businesses have increased
by a little less than the rise in interest rates directly due to the
tightening of monetary policy.
Subsequently, with continuing strong activity indicators, stretched labour markets and signs
of possible pipeline price pressures (although core consumer prices remain benign), the Federal Reserve
tightened monetary policy by 25 basis points to 5 per cent in June and then 5.25 per cent in August (Graph 5).
Before late January injected a surge
of volatility into equities, driven
by investor fears over a handful
of factors including rising rates,
tightening monetary policy, more regulation on big tech and rising global trade tensions, investors were smooth sailing on the nine - year bull market.
This is significantly different from the garden - variety recessions after World War II that were primarily caused
by Fed
tightening of monetary policy in response to rising inflation and full resource utilization.
In terms, I think
of inflation and bond markets, it took six, seven, eight, maybe 10 years
of high inflation in the 1970s before you had Paul Volcker brought in to say «enough is enough,» and then again whether it's led
by American
monetary policy but similar moves in Europe, obviously in the UK, a significant
tightening of monetary policy because people got fed up with inflation and I don't think that we are kind
of yet at the point where real wages have been suppressed so much
by that irritation that inflation is always running ahead, life is becoming more expensive, so we need the central bank radically to change their
policy.
Oversea - Chinese Banking Corp. and ABN Amro Group NV see gold sliding to $ 1,100 an ounce
by the end
of next year as the Federal Reserve
tightens monetary policy, real Treasury yields increase and the U.S. currency rises.
In Australia, as well as reflecting the favourable overseas developments, financial markets have been influenced
by the run
of strong local economic data, with the result that markets had begun to anticipate some
tightening of monetary policy ahead
of the Board's November decision, though a rise in cash rates had only been fully priced for the December meeting.
In 1845, the Bank
of England
tightened its
monetary policy by raising interest rates, which has a tendency to pop economic bubbles as capital is no longer as cheap as it once was and now higher - yielding bonds become more attractive to investors again.
This is an incredible sign
of resilience from a market that has recently been plagued
by concerns
of a trade war, data regulation,
tightening monetary policy, abnormally high valuations, and more.
Although bond yields have already started to rise in recent months in anticipation
of a reduction
of monetary stimulus in the US, we expect future increases to be moderate in the face
of what is likely to be a gradual pace
of policy tightening by both the US and Canadian central banks.
Thirty - year fixed - rate mortgage interest rates will fall to about 6.7 percent
by the end
of 1999 and remain stable next year, despite the Federal Reserve's slight
tightening of monetary policy beginning in the second half
of 1999, he predicts.