This is significantly different from the garden - variety recessions after World War II that were primarily caused by Fed
tightening of monetary policy in response to rising inflation and full resource utilization.
Initially, investors were skeptical about any further
tightening of monetary policy in coming months, amid escalating tensions between North Korea and the United States, further soft inflation data and uncertainty about the potentially negative effects of hurricanes Harvey and Irma on the economy.
In the most recent period, following
the tightening of monetary policy in May, market interest rates declined for a time as participants assessed that the cumulative tightening over the previous six months might have been sufficient to reduce the risks on inflation.
The FOMC, in other words, signaled it would allow a passive
tightening of monetary policy in the second half of 2008.
This would be slower than the last
tightening of monetary policy in 2004 to 2006.
But protectionism, unexpected rapid
tightening of monetary policy in some countries, and geopolitical tensions in North Korea and the Middle East pose potential risks, Kuroda said.
However, protectionism, unexpected rapid
tightening of monetary policy in some countries, and geopolitical tensions in North Korea and the Middle East pose potential risks to global growth, Kuroda said.
Not exact matches
Tightening of monetary policy meant to cool the housing market over the past year, combined with a wind - down
in public works, has served to slow GDP growth into the single digits.
Specifically, there are concerns about what might happen should the tide turn
in the bond markets when 30 years
of falling interest rates reverses at a time when the Federal Reserve is preparing to
tighten monetary policy by forcing rates higher.
Seen as one
of the most important members
of the Fed's rate - setting committee, Dudley said the central bank was
in no rush to
tighten monetary policy.
The yield, a barometer for mortgage rates and other financial instruments, has jumped
in April on signs
of nascent inflation and as the Federal Reserve stood by its plan to gradually
tighten monetary policy.
That is clearly the result
of tightening, especially related to the property market but also related to lending and
monetary policies in general,» said Alaistair Chan, economist at Moody's Analytics.
A
tightening monetary policy is usually seen as positive for a currency as it's a sign
of health
in that region's economy and reduces that amount
of that currency
in circulation.
After weakening at the start
of 2018, a rise
in U.S. Treasury yields have helped the dollar stage a recovery
in the past fortnight at the same time as doubts grow about when the European Central Bank (ECB) will
tighten monetary policy.
In other words, if you tighten monetary policy, certainly by more than is discounted in the market — and what's discounted in the market is very minor rising market — that will reverberate through asset class prices, as well as then you can have a situation in terms of the econom
In other words, if you
tighten monetary policy, certainly by more than is discounted
in the market — and what's discounted in the market is very minor rising market — that will reverberate through asset class prices, as well as then you can have a situation in terms of the econom
in the market — and what's discounted
in the market is very minor rising market — that will reverberate through asset class prices, as well as then you can have a situation in terms of the econom
in the market is very minor rising market — that will reverberate through asset class prices, as well as then you can have a situation
in terms of the econom
in terms
of the economy.
Many
of them may relate to an optimistic scenario — one
in which the economic recovery accelerates, causing the Federal Reserve to
tighten monetary policy and interest rates to rise.
The last time a Liberal government entered an election
in the middle
of a
monetary policy tightening cycle was
in 2006; that year, the Conservatives defeated them.
In the middle, US Economics of slowly improving US economy, low interest rates, low and gradually rising inflation, recovering job picture, front - loaded fiscal policy are all collectively in a tug of war with gradually tightening monetary policy and trade war scar
In the middle, US Economics
of slowly improving US economy, low interest rates, low and gradually rising inflation, recovering job picture, front - loaded fiscal
policy are all collectively
in a tug of war with gradually tightening monetary policy and trade war scar
in a tug
of war with gradually
tightening monetary policy and trade war scare.
Indeed,
in a classic paper written
in the early 1960s, Mundell (Mundell, 1963) showed how,
in a world
of complete asset substitutability and perfect capital mobility, real interest rates would be largely determined by international market forces with the exchange rate moving
in response to changes
in domestic
monetary policy to provide most
of the desired accommodation or
tightening.
This prompted a
tightening of monetary policy, which,
in turn, dampened interest - rate sensitive spending, particularly on housing and consumer durable goods.
«
In the past 30 years, the yield curve has inverted five out
of the eight times the Fed has been
tightening monetary policy.
It is not clear to me that a modest
tightening in monetary policy beyond that needed to achieve full employment and price stability
in the absence
of a bubble would represent a favorable cost - benefit trade - off.
Many
of them thus
tightened monetary policy in 2011, with consequences for growth
in 2012 that have carried over into this year.
«Unless quite substantial
tightening of monetary policy is delivered, the lira will remain volatile,» Rabobank's Matys said, adding the central bank may have to consider an emergency
policy meeting beforehand, as was the case
in January 2014.
Thus «the most reliable indicator
of the stance
of monetary policy, nominal GDP, is already showing the contractionary impact
of the Fed's
policy decisions,» says Lacey, «signaling that its plan will result
in further
monetary tightening, or worse, even recession.»
The expansionary period that followed the recession
in 1960 - 61, which was a result
of high unemployment and a shift to foreign - made cars, was met with another sharp decline as the Fed began to
tighten monetary policy.
The IMF said
in October it expected Canada to consider raising rates, or a «gradual
tightening»
of monetary policy,
in late 2014.
In our March statement we indicated that our current
monetary policy stance remained appropriate to achieve our 2 per cent inflation target on a sustainable basis by around the middle
of 2018, whereas US authorities have now begun to
tighten.
In order to avoid an inversion of the yield curve, which in the past has been a clear sign of recession, the Fed has to use all its available tools in order to gradually tighten monetary policy and slowly raise rate
In order to avoid an inversion
of the yield curve, which
in the past has been a clear sign of recession, the Fed has to use all its available tools in order to gradually tighten monetary policy and slowly raise rate
in the past has been a clear sign
of recession, the Fed has to use all its available tools
in order to gradually tighten monetary policy and slowly raise rate
in order to gradually
tighten monetary policy and slowly raise rates.
The Peoples Bank
of China is expected to carry on with enhancing liquidity fine - tuning while maintaining a
tightening bias
in both
monetary and regulatory
policy, as long as growth continues to be more than 6.5 percent,...
A passive
tightening of monetary policy occurs whenever the Fed allows total current dollar spending to fall, either through a endogenous fall
in the money supply or through an unchecked decrease
in money velocity.
The Fed that
tightened monetary policy in February (albeit modestly) because we were supposedly coming out
of a recession.
While the latest jobs data may be decisive
in convincing Fed policymakers to begin normalizing
monetary policy, lingering softness
in some parts
of the US economy means that
policy tightening should, as Janet Yellen put it, proceed at a «gradual and measured pace.»
The
tightening in monetary policy has, however, resulted
in a rise
in the interest payments
of the household sector from around 6 per cent
of household disposable income
in the first half
of 1999, to around 7 1/4 per cent
in the March quarter (Graph 15).
At its December meeting, as
in earlier months, the Board judged that a further
tightening of monetary policy would probably be required
in due course, but that there was no need for action
in the short term.
With economic growth returning to the developed world, the end
of years
of quantitative easing and easy
monetary policy is
in view; inflation concerns are reviving, guaranteeing rising interest rates along with
tightening liquidity.
This widening
in the gap between fixed and variable housing rates is likely to have contributed to the pick - up
in the proportion
of borrowers choosing to take out fixed - rate housing loans:
in November 2004, the latest available data, 11 per cent
of new owner - occupier housing loan approvals were at fixed rates, up from 7 per cent three months earlier and the highest share since the beginning
of 2004, which followed a period
of monetary policy tightening (Graph 45).
Growth
in the United Kingdom has begun to moderate as the housing sector has responded to the
tightening of monetary policy over the past year or so.
Measured across all loan products, and taking into account changes
in customer risk margins, however, it seems that interest rates paid on average by small businesses have increased by a little less than the rise
in interest rates directly due to the
tightening of monetary policy.
Subsequently, with continuing strong activity indicators, stretched labour markets and signs
of possible pipeline price pressures (although core consumer prices remain benign), the Federal Reserve
tightened monetary policy by 25 basis points to 5 per cent
in June and then 5.25 per cent
in August (Graph 5).
But the
tightening of US
monetary policy (with the consequential negative impact on Australia's short - term interest differential) and the strengthening
of the yen have worked
in the opposite direction.
As discussed below, financial markets viewed these events as bringing forward the likely timing
of monetary policy tightening in the US.
Implied volatilities gradually declined around the world
in the second half
of 2003, as it became clearer that the easing cycle was drawing to a close, with some central banks beginning to
tighten monetary policy after a prolonged period
of relatively low and stable interest rates.
[7] This reflects both the discount
in the initial period
of the loan as well as the fact that as the Fed
tightened monetary policy, the rate to which the mortgage reset rose.
The US Federal Reserve's expected
tightening of monetary policy later this year should be seen as a positive action, though there may be some turbulence
in asset and foreign exchange markets.
In fact, the divergences in global economic performance — one of those being that U.S. monetary policy would tighten while European monetary policy would loosen — actually look very much like an explanation for what already happened last yea
In fact, the divergences
in global economic performance — one of those being that U.S. monetary policy would tighten while European monetary policy would loosen — actually look very much like an explanation for what already happened last yea
in global economic performance — one
of those being that U.S.
monetary policy would
tighten while European
monetary policy would loosen — actually look very much like an explanation for what already happened last year.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) looks likely to
tighten monetary policy further, as inflation and unemployment move closer to its targets — underlining the strength
of the domestic economy — but, while awaiting more substance on
policy initiatives, we remain cautious about predictions
of an end to the pattern
of modest US growth seen
in recent years.
Nevertheless, the apparent success
of the ECB's
policy in overcoming the threat
of deflation increased speculation about a potential
tightening of monetary policy, possibly even before the cessation
of the central bank's bond purchases — scheduled to continue for at least the rest
of the year — and
in the wake
of the ECB meeting pushed market estimates
of the odds
of a rise
in official interest rates before the end
of 2017 to more than 50 %.
We think the speculation about a potential future
tightening of monetary policy by the ECB — whether
in the form
of a tapering
of bond purchases or a rise
in interest rates — has moved too far ahead
of the economic and political realities within the eurozone.
In terms, I think of inflation and bond markets, it took six, seven, eight, maybe 10 years of high inflation in the 1970s before you had Paul Volcker brought in to say «enough is enough,» and then again whether it's led by American monetary policy but similar moves in Europe, obviously in the UK, a significant tightening of monetary policy because people got fed up with inflation and I don't think that we are kind of yet at the point where real wages have been suppressed so much by that irritation that inflation is always running ahead, life is becoming more expensive, so we need the central bank radically to change their polic
In terms, I think
of inflation and bond markets, it took six, seven, eight, maybe 10 years
of high inflation
in the 1970s before you had Paul Volcker brought in to say «enough is enough,» and then again whether it's led by American monetary policy but similar moves in Europe, obviously in the UK, a significant tightening of monetary policy because people got fed up with inflation and I don't think that we are kind of yet at the point where real wages have been suppressed so much by that irritation that inflation is always running ahead, life is becoming more expensive, so we need the central bank radically to change their polic
in the 1970s before you had Paul Volcker brought
in to say «enough is enough,» and then again whether it's led by American monetary policy but similar moves in Europe, obviously in the UK, a significant tightening of monetary policy because people got fed up with inflation and I don't think that we are kind of yet at the point where real wages have been suppressed so much by that irritation that inflation is always running ahead, life is becoming more expensive, so we need the central bank radically to change their polic
in to say «enough is enough,» and then again whether it's led by American
monetary policy but similar moves
in Europe, obviously in the UK, a significant tightening of monetary policy because people got fed up with inflation and I don't think that we are kind of yet at the point where real wages have been suppressed so much by that irritation that inflation is always running ahead, life is becoming more expensive, so we need the central bank radically to change their polic
in Europe, obviously
in the UK, a significant tightening of monetary policy because people got fed up with inflation and I don't think that we are kind of yet at the point where real wages have been suppressed so much by that irritation that inflation is always running ahead, life is becoming more expensive, so we need the central bank radically to change their polic
in the UK, a significant
tightening of monetary policy because people got fed up with inflation and I don't think that we are kind
of yet at the point where real wages have been suppressed so much by that irritation that inflation is always running ahead, life is becoming more expensive, so we need the central bank radically to change their
policy.