Goklany's compression of
the time constants of the economy and climate to 50 years is rather extreme given infrastructure and power plant lifetimes on the order of 40 years, carbon cycle time constants > 100 years, and long adjustment times to radiative imbalance.
The time constants of albedo feedback from melting N America snow cover are shorter than the albedo feedback from melting Arctic sea ice, and the sea ice is changing response as its average thickness decreases, and the ratios of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 year ice area changes.
No matter how vastly different
the time constants of the atmosphere and ocean subsystem may be, they are incapable of any anticipatory action.
One could model such things as multi-body resonances, taking into account the enthalpies involved and the resulting
time constants of the various oscillations.
The time constants of the system are just not compatible with such an interpretation.
Changes in vegetation carbon residence times can cause major shifts in the distribution of carbon between pools, overall fluxes, and
the time constants of terrestrial carbon transitions, with consequences for the land carbon balance and the associated state of ecosystems.
We need to know the major
time constants of the system.
One approach to forecasting the natural long - term climate trend is to estimate
the time constants of response necessary to explain the observed phase relationships between orbital variation and climatic change, and then to use those time constants in the exponential - response model.
I also filtered the error with a 1st order filter (
Time constant of 8 mo..
Stephen Schwartz» energy paper has been reviewed & SS has accepted
a time constant of 8 years as more apropos.
The behavior of the anomalies of temperature and salinity in the central Arctic Ocean follow a first - order linear response to the AO with
time constant of 5 years and a delay of 3 years.
The time constant of the upper ocean is perhaps ten years.
The thermal inertia lag is nontrivial — it means that current temperature is less than the equilibrium temperature expected from current forcing by a factor of tau * g, where tau =
time constant of thermal inerta and g = growth rate of emissions.
Now I have gotten the terminology a little messed up — the e-folding time in electrical work is actually
the time constant of the circuit.
You can't have a lagged version without
a time constant of some sort.
In any event the time constant seems to be ~ 10 years The Schwartz paper says: «
The time constant of Earth's climate system is 5 ± 1 years OR 16 ± 3 years» My guess is when they do not detrend they get the contribution from the longer cycle and ends up with 16 years.
Instead it will converge to V eventually, namely the equilibrium state (I = 0), with
a time constant of RC.
It is easy to calculate
the time constant of the decay rate of the extra volume, because that is in linear ratio with the increase in height of water in the tank, and we know the extra outflow at the measured increase.
The IPCC's estimate of the sink rate (and total atmospheric CO2) implies
a time constant of 8 years.
1) Anthropogenic inputs account for nearly all of the 100 ppm concentration increase in the last century implies an adjustment
time constant of hundreds of years, at least — and 2) that only 1/2 of each year's anthro input is retained by the atmosphere implies a very non-linear system.
Although the absolute rates will always be different,
the time constant of the decay will be (almost) the same.
And again: When you have multiple reservoirs with multiple time constants that are transferring CO2 back and forth, the residence time of a CO2 molecule in the atmosphere is not the same as
the time constant of the atmospheric concentration.
Note that the 3 year lag is not the same as
the time constant of ocean lag which may be larger.
Finally, we represent the climate — carbon - cycle feedback by adding an extra, temperature - dependent component to the total anthropogenic emissions emitted each year (Ea): where T ′ is the temperature anomaly above an exponentially weighted running mean with
a time constant of 100 years, and b5 is the adjustable carbon - cycle feedback parameter.
The time constant of global atmospheric temperature change is about one month.
but the aggregate
time constant of temperature change of the oceans is decades.
The BoM is claiming that the thermal
time constant of the PRT probe in the sreen is the averaging but that occurs in the wrong part of this chain of events to have any effect on electrical noise.
In short time series (and 100 years is short relative to
the time constant of ocean mixing), this view merits consideration.
As the air is now stable
the time constant of a thermometer is generally not as critical.
By attenuating long - term effects in this way, he gets a much shorter
time constant of 5 - 7 years, which then leads to the lower sensitivity.
Without detrending, he gets a relaxation
time constant of 15 - 17 years, which would give a sensitivity much in line with other calculations.
The conclusion is that
the time constant of the planet is 5 ± 1 years and its heat capacity is 16.7 ± 7 W • yr / (dec C • m ^ 2), so climate sensitivity is 5/16.7 = 0.3 deg C / (W / m ^ 2).
Another option is to regress T on lagged F. I've found that using an exponential forcing decay with
a time constant of ~ 2 years works well (gives the best fit) for GISS - E2 - R.
In addition, time scales matter here — increasing the amount of CO2 by 33 % over the course of a few decades would overwhelm any system (like the Earth's climate) that has
a time constant of centuries.
Who knows what
the time constant of the climate system might be?
You have to involve the whole world, and then there's
the time constant of human activity.
You really don't need a very thick layer of the ocean to get
a time constant of that magnitude»
An alpha of 0.95 is equivalent to
a time constant of 20 years.
Not exact matches
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