Sentences with phrase «time event attribution»

«This analysis proves that the modelling approach behind one of the main pillars of real - time event attribution undertaken is sound and applicable to a range of extreme events in regions where we have confidence in the model performance», said Karsten Haustein, lead author of the new paper.

[1] Friederike E.L. Otto, Karin van der Wiel, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F Kew, Peter Uhe and Heidi Cullen: Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England / Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond — a real - time event attribution revisited

Not exact matches

The committee also recommends that some future event attribution activities could be incorporated into an integrated weather - to - climate forecasting efforts on a broad range of timescales, with an ultimate goal of providing predictive risk - based forecasts of extreme events at lead times of days to seasons.

Overall, the chances of seeing a rainfall event as intense as Harvey have roughly tripled - somewhere between 1.5 and five times more likely - since the 1900s and the intensity of such an event has increased between 8 percent and 19 percent, according to the new study by researchers with World Weather Attribution, an international coalition of scientists that objectively and quantitatively assesses the possible role of climate change in individual extreme weather events.

Just days later, a real - time analysis by scientists working with Climate Central's World Weather Attribution program has found that global warming has boosted the odds of such an extreme rainfall event in the region by about 40 percent — a small, but clear, effect, the scientists say.

A new analysis published in the journal Environmental Research Letters establishes that seasonal forecast sea surface temperature (SSTs) can be used to perform probabilistic extreme - event attribution, thereby accelerating the time it takes climate scientists to understand and quantify the role of global warming in certain classes of extreme weather events.

«The methodological frameworks were very much in their infancy at the time of Katrina in 2005,» said Noah Diffenbaugh, a Stanford climate researcher who performs climate change «attribution» studies, seeking to determine how the probability of various weather events has changed as a result of the warming of the climate.

It's doubtful we will come to a conclusion in real - time on the attribution of this event — or any event — without significant research, better tools / models, and observations.

Although attribution science is clearer for some types of events than for others, it is an important step to provide predictive forecasts of extreme events at longer lead times, reducing risks and improving preparedness.

We are pleased to announce that we are starting a new collaborative project with Climate Central that aims to demonstrate the feasibility of near real - time attribution studies for extreme weather events around the world.

With a robust evidence base and the right protocols in place it is now possible to run near real - time extreme weather event attribution within days of an event striking.

Karsten Haustein is a postdoctoral researcher working on the World Weather Attribution project, developing the capability to perform quasi-real time attribution analysis of extreme weather events around the world on an operatiAttribution project, developing the capability to perform quasi-real time attribution analysis of extreme weather events around the world on an operatiattribution analysis of extreme weather events around the world on an operational basis.